Reliance Industries is having a rough start to 2026. Honestly, it's a bit of a shocker for a stock that basically spent all of 2025 in a victory lap. After a massive 29% rally last year, the share price for reliance industries has tumbled about 8% just in the first couple weeks of January.
We’re talking about roughly ₹1.4 lakh crore in market value just... gone. Poof.
If you’ve been tracking the ticker, you know it hit a record high near ₹1,610 recently. But as of mid-January 2026, it’s been testing the ₹1,450 level. For a company that’s basically the backbone of the Indian stock market, that kind of slide gets people sweating. But is it a "get out now" situation or just a really good chance to buy the dip before the Q3 results drop?
The Reality Behind the January Slide
Markets are funny. Sometimes a stock falls because the business is failing, but with Reliance, it’s more like a "perfect storm" of outside drama.
First off, there’s this whole thing with Russian crude oil. Reliance has been making bank for a couple of years by refining discounted Russian oil. Now, there’s talk in the US about new legislation—pushed by folks like Senator Lindsey Graham—that could target countries buying that oil. Investors hate uncertainty, and this is a big one. If that cheap oil supply gets squeezed, those fat refining margins might start looking a lot thinner.
Then you have the retail side. Everyone thought Reliance Retail was invincible. But lately, discretionary spending in urban India has felt a bit sluggish. When you see other big retailers reporting "meh" numbers, people start assuming Reliance Retail is going to hit a speed bump too. Goldman Sachs actually dialed back their growth expectations for the retail segment to about 10% for the December quarter. Compare that to the 21% growth they saw in September, and you can see why the market is acting a bit grumpy.
Breaking Down the Numbers
The technical side of things is actually pretty interesting if you’re into charts. The stock recently slipped below its 100-day moving average. Some analysts, like Ajit Mishra over at Religare Broking, think this is just a "healthy consolidation." Basically, the stock ran too fast in 2025 and needed to catch its breath.
Key levels to watch right now:
- Support: ₹1,380 to ₹1,440. If it holds here, we might see a bounce.
- Resistance: ₹1,520 to ₹1,550. It needs to clear this to prove the bulls are back in charge.
Why 2026 Could Still Be a Massive Year
Despite the January blues, 2026 is being called the "year of catalysts" for Reliance. Mukesh Ambani isn't exactly known for sitting still. At the Vibrant Gujarat conference earlier this month, he dropped some huge news: a plan to invest ₹7 trillion in Gujarat over the next five years.
That’s a staggering amount of money.
One of the biggest things people are talking about is the Jio Platforms IPO. Rumor has it they might finally pull the trigger this year with a 2.5% listing. Even a tiny slice like that could raise over $4 billion, making it potentially India's biggest IPO ever. Jefferies has valued Jio at around $180 billion. If that happens, it’s going to be a massive value-unlocking moment for anyone holding Reliance shares.
And don't forget the "New Energy" play. The giga-factory in Jamnagar is supposed to start cranking out battery cells this year. They’re starting with 40 GWh and want to scale to 100 GWh. If they pull this off, Reliance transforms from a "dirty" oil company to a green energy giant in the eyes of global ESG investors.
What to Expect From the Q3 Results
The board is meeting on January 16 to approve the December quarter results. Most experts are expecting a bit of a "tale of two cities" situation.
The energy side (O2C) is expected to shine. Refining margins have been decent, and despite the Russian crude worries, the business is still a cash cow. On the flip side, Retail might look a bit "bumpy," as Morgan Stanley puts it.
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Jio is likely to be the steady hand. We’re expecting revenue to hit somewhere around ₹32,900 crore for the quarter, with steady subscriber additions. If Jio’s ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) shows a decent tick up, that could be the catalyst that stops the stock’s bleeding.
The Analyst Verdict
It’s rare to see this much agreement, but about 97% of analysts still have a "Buy" rating on the stock. Goldman Sachs even raised their price target to ₹1,835 recently. They basically think the market is overreacting to the Russian oil news and that the refining business is strong enough to handle it.
Is the Share Price for Reliance Industries Overvalued?
Look, if you look at the P/E ratio, it’s sitting around 25-26x. Compared to some global oil peers, that looks expensive. But Reliance isn't just an oil company anymore. You're buying a piece of the Indian telecom market, the biggest retailer in the country, and a massive bet on green hydrogen.
The dividend yield is still low—around 0.38%—so you aren't buying this for the quarterly check. You’re buying it for the capital appreciation. The company has a history of being a bit stingy with dividends because they plow all that cash back into growth. Whether it’s 5G rollout or AI data centers in Jamnagar, the money is being put to work.
Moving Forward: Your Action Plan
If you’re looking at the share price for reliance industries and wondering what to do, don't panic. The 8% drop is significant, but it hasn't broken the long-term uptrend yet.
Keep a close eye on the January 16 earnings report. Specifically, look at the management commentary on the Jio IPO timeline and the retail margins. If the retail slowdown is worse than 10%, we might see another leg down toward the ₹1,400 mark.
For long-term investors, these "speed bumps" are usually where the best entries happen. Staggering your buys—meaning you don't throw all your cash in at once—is probably the smartest way to handle the current volatility. Watch the ₹1,440 support level like a hawk. If it holds, the road back to ₹1,600 looks a lot clearer.