Reliance Industries is basically the "big elephant" of the Indian stock market. When it moves, the entire Nifty 50 feels the vibration. If you've been checking your portfolio lately, you’ve probably noticed that the reliance stock price nse has been having a bit of a rough start to 2026. After hitting a record high of ₹1,611.80 just a few weeks ago on January 5, the stock has slipped into what experts call a "corrective phase."
As of today, January 15, 2026, the stock is hovering around the ₹1,458.80 mark. It’s down roughly 8% since the year began. Honestly, it’s been a bit of a reality check for investors who got used to the nearly 30% rally we saw throughout 2025.
The Drama Behind the Dip
So, what’s actually happening? It’s not just one thing. It's a mix of global jitters and some local "wait-and-watch" vibes.
First off, the retail segment—which used to be a massive growth engine—is seeing some speed bumps. We’re seeing reports from other major retailers about a slowdown in discretionary spending. People aren't buying high-end stuff as aggressively as they were last year. Because Reliance Retail is such a huge part of the valuation now, any sign of a "bumpy" quarter there makes traders nervous.
Then there's the geopolitical side. There's been a lot of talk about US pressure regarding Russian crude oil. Reliance has been a big buyer of that discounted oil for its Jamnagar refinery. Now, they're reportedly in talks with the US Treasury to pivot back toward Venezuelan crude to avoid any potential sanction headaches. It's smart, but it creates uncertainty. And markets hate uncertainty.
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Technically Speaking: Is the Bottom In?
Technically, the stock is testing the patience of many swing traders. It recently slipped below its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). That usually signals a loss of short-term momentum.
However, many seasoned analysts, including Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking, don't think the sky is falling. They see this as a healthy consolidation. The stock had run up too fast, and it needed to cool down.
Key levels to watch right now:
- The Support Zone: ₹1,380 to ₹1,440. This is where the "buyers in waiting" usually step in.
- The Resistance: ₹1,520 to ₹1,550. Until the stock breaks above this, it might just keep bouncing around.
- The 200-day EMA: Currently sitting near ₹1,445. If it holds here, we might see a bounce. If it fails, we could see ₹1,400 sooner than we’d like.
The Big Catalyst: January 16 Results
Everyone is circling tomorrow on their calendars. Reliance is scheduled to announce its Q3 FY26 earnings on Friday, January 16, 2026.
This is the "make or break" moment for the current price trend. Morgan Stanley expects EBITDA to rise about 10% year-on-year, mostly thanks to the energy business. Refining margins have stayed surprisingly strong despite the global chaos.
But keep an eye on Jio. While the telecom business is a steady cash cow, investors are looking for updates on the Jio Platforms IPO. That was the big story of 2025, and any news on the listing timeline or further tariff hikes will likely move the needle more than the actual profit numbers.
What about the "New Energy" pause?
There was some chatter recently about Reliance pausing its lithium-ion battery cell plans because they couldn't secure specific technology licenses from Chinese firms. Beijing has been tightening the screws on tech exports.
While that sounds bad, Mukesh Ambani just announced at the Vibrant Gujarat summit that they are doubling down on the state with a ₹7 lakh crore investment over the next five years. They aren't stopping; they're just shifting the pieces on the chessboard. The focus is still very much on turning Jamnagar into a global green hydrogen hub.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of retail investors see an 8% drop in a "blue chip" like Reliance and panic-sell. They forget that the company's market cap is still sitting near ₹19.7 trillion.
One thing people often overlook is the "sum-of-the-parts" valuation. Even if the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) side is volatile, you've got Jio and Retail which are basically market leaders in their own right. Goldman Sachs actually reiterated a 'Buy' rating recently with a target of ₹1,835. They aren't looking at the noise of the last two weeks; they're looking at the next 12 months.
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Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at the reliance stock price nse and wondering what to do, here's the reality check.
- Don't chase the bounce: If the results tomorrow are "just okay," the stock might drift lower toward that ₹1,400 support. Staggered buying is usually smarter than going all-in.
- Watch the ARPU: In the Jio results, look at the Average Revenue Per User. If that’s climbing, the long-term story is still intact regardless of what the refinery margins do this month.
- Check the Retail Margins: If Reliance Retail shows a significant drop in margins due to "weak urban demand," the stock might stay under pressure for the rest of the quarter.
- The IPO Factor: The real "alpha" in Reliance right now is the potential demerger or listing of its subsidiaries. If you aren't patient enough to wait for that, this stock might feel boring or frustrating.
The current dip is basically a stress test for the broader market. Reliance is a heavyweight, and until it finds its footing, the Nifty is going to have a hard time making new highs.
Keep an eye on the closing price tomorrow after the earnings call. That will tell you everything you need to know about where we're headed for the rest of Q1.