Honestly, if you've been following South Sudan for more than five minutes, you know the name Riek Machar. It’s a name that carries a lot of weight—some of it historical, some of it deeply controversial. For decades, he’s been the "other guy" in the room, the perpetual rival to President Salva Kiir. But as we sit here in early 2026, the situation has taken a turn that even seasoned Juba watchers didn't quite see coming.
He's currently a man in legal limbo.
Since September 11, 2025, Dr. Riek Machar has been officially suspended from his role as First Vice President. It wasn't just a political sidelining; it was a full-blown legal crackdown. He’s currently facing trial on a laundry list of charges that sound like a political thriller: treason, murder, and crimes against humanity. The crux of the state’s case centers on a March 2025 attack on a military garrison in Nasir, where over 250 soldiers were killed. The government says he pulled the strings. Machar and his SPLM-IO party say it’s a setup.
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The Courtroom Drama in Juba
Walking into Freedom Hall in Juba these days feels different. Just a few days ago, on January 12, 2026, the judges overseeing Machar’s trial made a massive call. They closed the doors. No media, no public, no cameras. Why? Because the prosecution claimed their witnesses were being hunted down.
Think about that for a second. We’re talking about a trial involving the most significant opposition figure in the country’s history, and it's happening behind closed doors. The court heard reports of a witness’s son being attacked and another witness being beaten up in Kenya. It’s messy. It’s dangerous. And for Machar, who is currently under house arrest, it’s a long way from the halls of power he’s occupied since the 2018 peace deal was signed.
His defense team is screaming foul, of course. They argue that a secret trial is basically a conviction in waiting. They’ve got a point—South Sudan’s constitution generally requires trials to be public. But when the state says national security and witness lives are on the line, the law gets flexible.
Why Riek Machar Still Matters
You might wonder why we’re still talking about a man who has been "ousted" or "reinstated" more times than a tech CEO. It’s because Machar represents more than just a person; he represents a massive chunk of the South Sudanese population, particularly the Nuer ethnic group.
His political DNA is woven into the very fabric of the nation.
He’s a man of contradictions.
A PhD in strategic planning from the UK.
A former warlord.
A peace signatory.
People often get him wrong by labeling him purely as a "rebel leader." That’s too simple. He’s been a Vice President in three different iterations of the government. He was there when the country gained independence in 2011. He was there when the civil war broke out in 2013. He was there when the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) supposedly ended the madness.
The problem is that the "unity" in the unity government was always a bit of a myth. It was more like a cold war between the Presidency and the First Vice Presidency. While they shared the same podium at events, their respective armies—the SSPDF and the SPLA-IO—never truly merged.
The 2026 Election: The New Flashpoint
Here is where it gets really tricky. South Sudan is staring down the barrel of its first-ever national elections, currently slated for December 2026.
For years, the excuse for delaying the vote was "the constitution isn't ready" or "we need a census." In December 2025, President Salva Kiir’s side basically said, "Actually, forget the census. Let's just use the 2010 boundaries and vote."
Machar’s loyalists are not having it. They’ve rejected the plan entirely, calling it a "grand strategy to dismantle the peace agreement." From their perspective, holding an election while the main opposition leader is in a cage or under house arrest isn't a democracy; it’s a coronation.
Current roadblocks to the 2026 vote:
- The Census: Machar’s camp insists you can’t have a fair vote without knowing where the people are.
- Security: Thousands of fighters from both sides are still sitting in training centers, waiting to become a "unified army."
- The Trial: If Machar is convicted of treason, he’s legally barred from running. If he’s acquitted, he’s Kiir’s biggest threat.
The Global View: Is Anyone Watching?
The international community is exhausted. That’s the hard truth. Diplomats from the African Union and major donor countries met just this week, on January 13, 2026, to share their "grave concerns."
They’re pushing for "inclusive dialogue," which is diplomatic speak for "please start talking to each other before the shooting starts again." South Africa’s International Relations Minister, Ronald Lamola, is actually in Juba right now trying to kickstart the stalled peace process.
But talk is cheap in a country where the currency is crumbling and the price of grain is skyrocketing. While the elites in Juba argue over legal red tape and election dates, the "White Army" (a Nuer youth militia) and various defecting units are already clashing in places like Upper Nile and Jonglei.
What Really Happened with the Nasir Incident?
To understand why Machar is in the dock today, you have to look at March 2025. The government alleges that the SPLA-IO—the forces loyal to Machar—attacked a federal base in Nasir.
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It was a bloodbath.
The state claims equipment worth $58 million was destroyed or stolen. More importantly, they say Machar gave the green light. Machar’s defense is simple: he didn’t have control over those specific units, and the attack was a localized flare-up, not a national coup attempt.
The trial is trying to bridge that gap. But in South Sudanese politics, "truth" is often whatever the person with the most guns says it is.
What's Next for South Sudan?
If you're looking for a clean ending, you won't find it here. The situation is volatile. We are in a "wait and see" period that feels more like a "duck and cover" period.
If the trial continues in secret and results in a treason conviction, the SPLM-IO might officially pull out of the peace deal. If that happens, the 2018 agreement—which is the only thing keeping the country from sliding back into total civil war—becomes a scrap of paper.
On the other hand, if the elections proceed in December 2026 without Machar, or with him in prison, a huge portion of the country will feel completely disenfranchised. History in South Sudan shows that when people feel they can't win at the ballot box, they try to win in the bush.
Actionable insights for those following the situation:
- Watch the Juba trial updates: Even though it's behind closed doors, leaks and official statements from the defense team will signal how close the country is to a political breaking point.
- Monitor the National Election Commission (NEC): They are supposed to release a detailed electoral timeline by the end of January 2026. If it excludes the census or refugee repatriation, expect the opposition to move from verbal protests to physical ones.
- Track the "Unified Forces": The success or failure of the election depends on whether there is a neutral army to guard the polls. Right now, that doesn't exist.
- Follow regional mediators: The African Union's C5 mission is the last line of defense against a total collapse of the 2018 deal. Their report on January 19 will be a major indicator of how much pressure the world is willing to put on the Juba leadership.
This isn't just about one man. It’s about whether a young nation can survive its own creators. Riek Machar has been at the center of this story for forty years, and even from a courtroom in Juba, he remains the most unpredictable variable in the equation.