Ever walked through a Home Depot in early April? You've seen the wall of green bags. That's the empire Jim Hagedorn’s family built, and for a long time, owning Scott's Miracle Gro stock price felt as safe as a well-watered Kentucky Bluegrass lawn. But lately, things have been a bit more "wildflower meadow" and a lot less "manicured fairway."
Honestly, the stock has been on a rollercoaster that would make a thrill-seeker dizzy. We're talking about a company that traded near $250 during the "stay-at-home" gardening craze of 2021, only to see the floor fall out. As of mid-January 2026, the price is hovering around the **$61 to $64** range. It’s a weird spot to be in. The company is basically trying to prove it can grow again without the "green rush" of the pandemic or the volatile high of the cannabis industry propping it up.
The Earnings Cliff and the 2026 Turnaround
If you’re looking at the ticker SMG today, you’re looking at a business in the middle of a massive identity shift. For a couple of years, the narrative was all about debt and "de-stocking." Retailers like Lowe’s and Walmart had too much dirt on hand, and they stopped buying. That crushed the stock.
But things are shifting. Analysts are actually getting kinda optimistic. In the last few months, we’ve seen upgrades. Zacks recently bumped them to a Rank #2 (Buy). Why? Because the "earnings picture" is finally cleaning up. For the fiscal year ending September 2026, the consensus is that they’ll pull in about $4.24 per share. Compare that to the struggle-bus years they just crawled out of, and you start to see why the price is stabilizing.
The next big test? January 28, 2026. That’s the estimated date for their Q1 earnings call. Wall Street is expecting a loss—usually around -$1.07 per share for this specific winter quarter—but in this industry, the winter loss doesn't matter as much as the "spring setup." Investors are looking for gross margins to hit that 32% mark Hagedorn promised.
The Cannabis Elephant in the Room
You can't talk about Scott's without talking about Hawthorne Gardening Co. This was their big bet on weed. When the cannabis market was exploding, Hawthorne was the crown jewel, selling the lighting and nutrients for hydroponic setups. Then the "green wave" hit a wall of oversupply and regulatory stagnation.
But here is the twist: The federal government is finally moving on Schedule III reclassification.
- The 280E Tax Break: If cannabis moves to Schedule III, legal growers stop getting hammered by the 280E tax penalty. This means they suddenly have cash again.
- The Hawthorne Pivot: Scotts is planning to combine Hawthorne with another cannabis entity early in fiscal 2026. Basically, they want to offload the volatility while keeping a foot in the door.
- The "Trump Factor": CEO Jim Hagedorn has been vocal about supporting executive orders that move the needle on rescheduling. He knows that if the legal market thrives, Hawthorne’s sales—which plummeted 44% in 2025—might finally bottom out and bounce.
Is the Dividend Actually Safe?
This is the question that keeps income investors up at night. Right now, SMG pays $2.64 per year. That's a yield of roughly 4.1% to 4.4%.
On paper, the payout ratio looks terrifying—over 100% of trailing earnings. That usually signals a dividend cut is coming. But wait. If you look at the cash flow, it’s a different story. The company generated over $274 million in free cash flow last year, which comfortably covers the check they send to shareholders. Management has been pretty stubborn about keeping the dividend intact. They see it as a "promise" to the long-term holders who stuck with them through the $200-to-$50 crash.
The Debt Mountain
Scotts is carrying about $2.1 billion in debt. In a high-interest-rate environment, that’s a heavy backpack to carry while you’re trying to climb a hill. Their leverage ratio was north of 5x not too long ago. They’ve managed to claw it down toward the 4x range, and the goal for 2026 is to get it safely into the "3s."
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If they miss their sales targets this spring, that debt becomes a problem again. If they hit them? They’ve talked about a $500 million to $1 billion share buyback program. That’s a huge "if," but it’s the carrot they’re dangling in front of investors.
Current Price Targets (What the "Smart Money" Thinks)
- UBS (Peter Grom): Recently boosted their target to $66.
- Stifel (W. Andrew Carter): Sitting at a more bullish $70.
- Jefferies: Thinks the stock could hit $74.
- Truist: The outlier at $80.
Basically, the experts think there is about 10% to 20% upside from here if the spring weather is good and the cannabis reclassification goes through.
What Most People Miss: The Weather Variable
People over-analyze the Fed and the 10-year Treasury, but for Scotts, the weather is more important. If it’s a cold, wet April in the Northeast and Midwest, nobody goes to Home Depot. Sales tank. If it’s a warm, early spring? The stock pops. It sounds primitive for a multi-billion dollar company, but that’s the reality of the lawn and garden business.
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Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you're watching the Scott's Miracle Gro stock price, don't just stare at the daily fluctuations. Here is the move:
- Watch the Jan 28 Earnings: Don't look at the loss; look at the inventory levels. If inventory is down, the "de-stocking" nightmare is officially over.
- Monitor Cannabis News: Any headline about "DEA" and "Schedule III" is a 5% swing for SMG. Use it as a catalyst, not a foundation.
- Check the "Moat": Look at their e-commerce growth. It’s now 10% of their sales. That’s the future. If that number keeps growing, they aren't just at the mercy of big-box retailers anymore.
- The "Spring" Rule: If you’re a swing trader, the window between February and May is your season. This stock rarely stays flat during the "Green Mile" months.
It’s a "show me" stock. The management has talked a big game about a 2026 recovery. Now, they actually have to deliver the dirt.