The rain isn’t the only thing feeling heavy in Seattle this January. If you’ve been scrolling through social media or listening to sports talk radio lately, you’ve probably heard the collective sigh of a fanbase that watched their team come within eight outs of a World Series berth last October. The 2025 season was a magical, chaotic ride that ended in Game 7 of the ALCS, and now, the front office is staring at a roster that looks a bit like a jigsaw puzzle with several missing corner pieces.
Everyone is talking about the Seattle Mariners free agents and who Jerry Dipoto might bring in to finally push this team over the hump. But honestly? Most of the discourse is missing the mark. People are obsessed with the "big fish" while the actual roster construction is happening in the trenches of arbitration and mid-tier "bridge" contracts.
The Josh Naylor Domino and the Infield Void
The biggest move of the winter happened so fast some fans might have missed the significance. Re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal was a massive statement. It basically anchored first base for the foreseeable future. But while that box is checked, the rest of the dirt is looking pretty thin.
When Jorge Polanco declined his $6 million vesting option to test the open market, it created a massive hole at second base. Polanco was a postseason hero for this club, crushing four homers in the playoffs and looking like the 2021 version of himself. Losing that kind of switch-hitting power hurts. Now, the Mariners are left looking at internal options like Cole Young and Ryan Bliss, but relying on rookies for a "win-now" team is a risky gamble.
Then there is the Eugenio Suárez situation. The vibes king himself hit free agency after his second stint in Seattle, and while there’s been plenty of smoke about a reunion, talks have reportedly hit a snag. Without Suárez or Polanco, J.P. Crawford is basically the last man standing in an infield that was once the team's greatest strength.
Why the "Starting Point" Payroll Matters
Jerry Dipoto mentioned back in October that the 2026 payroll would likely hover around $166 million as a "starting point." That sounds like a lot of money until you start doing the math.
According to FanGraphs and local reporters like Ryan Divish, the Mariners are already projected to sit around $157 million once you factor in the arbitration raises for guys like Randy Arozarena and the guaranteed deals for Julio Rodríguez. That leaves roughly $9 million to $11 million to play with.
That’s not exactly "sign Juan Soto" money.
Current Free Agent Status and Departures
- Jorge Polanco (2B/DH): Became a free agent; recently signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets.
- Eugenio Suárez (3B): Unsigned. The market for veteran power is always weird, and Seattle seems hesitant to go over a certain dollar amount for a player in his mid-30s.
- Justin Turner (1B/DH): The 41-year-old veteran is officially a free agent after the Cubs declined his option. While he provided great leadership, his .219 average last year suggests he’s more of a bench piece than a solution.
- Mitch Garver (C/DH): Hit the market after a disappointing stint; unlikely to return given the emergence of internal catching depth.
- Caleb Ferguson (LHP): A key bullpen arm now looking for a new home.
The Trade Market vs. Free Agency
Here is what most people get wrong: The Mariners probably aren't going to solve their problems through traditional free agency. They never really do. This team is built on the "trade and extend" model.
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Right now, the names circulating are Nico Hoerner from the Cubs and Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals. Both fit the Mariners' mold perfectly—high contact, versatile defenders, and under team control. Hoerner, specifically, would be an immediate upgrade at second base and would give the team a legitimate lead-off option.
The problem? The Cardinals and Cubs know the Mariners are desperate for infield help. If Seattle doesn't want to overpay in free agency for someone like Alex Bregman (who just signed a massive deal with the Cubs), they’re going to have to part with some of their prized pitching prospects. It’s a classic Dipoto dilemma.
The Bullpen Rebuild
We can't talk about free agents without mentioning the "chaos ball" bullpen. With Caleb Ferguson and Luke Jackson hitting the market, the relief corps needs a refresh.
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The Mariners have already been linked to JoJo Romero in trade talks, but there are still plenty of low-cost free agents available that fit the Seattle pitching lab's profile. Think high-velocity arms with one "out" pitch that the coaching staff can tweak. This is usually where the Mariners find their biggest bargains.
Misconceptions About the 50th Season
2026 is the Mariners' 50th season. There’s a segment of the fanbase that thinks ownership will "spend whatever it takes" to celebrate the anniversary with a trophy.
While the revenue from the 2025 playoff run certainly helped, the TV rights situation with ROOT Sports still looms in the background. Expecting a sudden jump to a $200 million payroll is a recipe for disappointment. The goal is sustainable winning, not a one-year splurge that leaves the cupboard bare.
What You Should Watch For Next
The offseason is moving at a snail's pace, but things usually move quickly once the first big infielder signs. Here is the realistic roadmap for the next few weeks:
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- Monitor the Trade Market: Keep a close eye on St. Louis. If they continue their rebuild, a package for Brendan Donovan becomes much more likely.
- The Third Base Stopgap: If a long-term deal with Suárez doesn't happen, look for the Mariners to sign a veteran on a one-year "prove it" deal—someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or even Ramón Urías via trade.
- Bullpen Volatility: Expect a flurry of minor league signings with invitations to Spring Training. The Mariners have a knack for turning "recycled" arms into high-leverage relievers.
The window is wide open. The rotation—led by Logan Gilbert and George Kirby—is arguably the best in baseball. The foundation is there. Now, it's just a matter of whether the front office can find the right "Seattle Mariners free agents" to fill those infield gaps without breaking the bank or the future.
If you're tracking the roster, focus less on the superstar rumors and more on the guys with high "on-base plus slugging" (OPS) who can play multiple positions. That’s where the 2026 AL West title will be won or lost.