If you’ve been watching the ticker lately, you know the share price of United Airlines is doing something it hasn't done in years. It’s moving with real purpose. On Friday, January 16, 2026, the stock (UAL) was hovering around $114.92 in mid-day trading. That’s a massive leap from the $40 levels we saw back in early 2024.
Honestly, it's a bit of a wild ride. Just this morning, the stock opened at $116.02, hit a high of $116.30, and then pulled back slightly as day traders took their profits. But the bigger story isn't the daily wiggle. It's the fact that United is finally outperforming a lot of its peers in the S&P 500, and analysts are starting to wonder if the "underdog" tag finally needs to be retired.
Why the share price of United Airlines is actually moving
You can't talk about United without talking about Scott Kirby’s "United Next" plan. This wasn't just corporate fluff. They basically gambled that travelers would pay more for a better experience, and they were right. By upgauging—that’s just airline speak for using bigger planes—and stuffing them with premium seats, they’ve managed to lower the cost of flying each passenger while charging more for the ticket.
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It’s a win-win for the balance sheet.
Smartkarma analysts recently pointed out that the company’s Return on Equity (ROE) is sitting at a healthy 23%. That’s a number that gets institutional investors very excited. Even Goldman Sachs recently bumped their price target to $129. When the big banks start chasing the price upward, you know the sentiment has shifted from "cautious" to "aggressive."
The Earnings Cliffhanger
Everyone is currently holding their breath for Tuesday, January 20, 2026. That’s when United drops its Q4 2025 results.
The whispers on the street? Analysts are looking for an EPS of around $2.93 to $3.05 on revenue north of $15.4 billion. If they beat that, the share price of United Airlines could easily test those 52-week highs near $119. But if they miss, or if fuel costs look scary for the next quarter, expect a bumpy landing.
What most people get wrong about airline stocks
There’s this old joke in finance: "How do you become a millionaire? Start as a billionaire and buy an airline."
For a long time, that was true. Airlines were where money went to die because of fuel spikes and labor strikes. But the 2026 version of United is different. They’ve built a massive "moat" around their international routes. While budget carriers are fighting over $29 flights to Florida, United is printing money on transatlantic and Pacific routes where they have way less competition and much higher margins.
- International dominance: Their hubs in Newark and San Francisco are gold mines for long-haul travel.
- Loyalty is the secret sauce: The MileagePlus program isn't just for free flights; it’s a multi-billion dollar financial asset that provides a cushion when ticket sales slow down.
- Tech upgrades: They just rolled out a new economy meal preorder system. Seems small, right? It actually cuts food waste and saves millions in operating costs.
Is the current price a trap?
Look, no stock is a sure thing. The bears will tell you that the share price of United Airlines is vulnerable to geopolitical drama. If oil prices spike because of a new conflict, or if the "K-shaped" economy finally catches up to high-end travelers, United will feel it.
Also, unlike some competitors, United doesn't hedge their fuel costs as aggressively. They play the spot market. When fuel is cheap, they look like geniuses. When it’s expensive? Not so much.
Right now, the stock is trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of about 11.5. Compare that to some tech stocks trading at 40 or 50, and United looks like a bargain. Simply Wall St even suggests an "intrinsic value" much higher than current levels based on projected cash flows, though you should always take those theoretical models with a grain of salt.
What to watch in the next 30 days
If you're holding UAL or thinking about jumping in, keep your eyes on these three things:
- The Jan 20 Earnings Call: Listen to what they say about 2026 guidance. That’s more important than the past quarter's numbers.
- Boeing/Airbus Deliveries: If plane deliveries are delayed, United can’t retire older, fuel-hungry jets as fast as they want.
- Business Travel Trends: Is "Zoom fatigue" still driving people back onto planes? The high-margin corporate traveler is the lifeblood of this share price.
The share price of United Airlines has spent the last year proving the doubters wrong. It’s no longer just a "recovery play" from the pandemic years; it’s a company that has fundamentally changed how it makes money. Whether it hits that $130 mark depends on if they can keep those premium cabins full as we head into the spring travel season.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Audit your exposure: Check if your "Industrial" or "Transportation" ETFs already have a heavy weighting in UAL before buying individual shares.
- Set a price alert: Given the upcoming earnings, setting an alert at $120 (a breakout level) or $110 (a support level) can help you avoid emotional trading during the post-report volatility.
- Review the Q4 transcript: On Wednesday, January 21, read the "Management Commentary" section of the earnings report specifically for mentions of PRASM (Revenue per Available Seat Mile). If that's growing, the bull case is intact.