Honestly, it feels like we’ve been waiting for Sherlock Holmes 3 Robert Downey Jr to happen since the Victorian era itself. It’s been well over a decade since A Game of Shadows hit theaters in 2011. You remember that cliffhanger? Sherlock camouflaged in that chair, breathing through a localized oxygen supply, watching Watson? We all thought we were getting a sequel by 2014. Then 2016. Then 2020.
Now, we’re sitting here in 2026, and the pipe smoke is looking a little thin.
The reality of Hollywood is often more boring than a Moriarty plot. It’s usually just about calendars. Robert Downey Jr spent a massive chunk of his life as the face of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. When you’re Iron Man, you don’t have time to run around 1890s London for six months. But even after Endgame, the momentum didn't quite catch. People keep asking if it's actually dead. It’s not dead. It’s just... complicated. Susan Downey, Robert’s wife and a powerhouse producer at Team Downey, has been the main voice of optimism here. She’s gone on record multiple times saying the movie is still a "priority," but the stars have to align.
What's actually holding up Sherlock Holmes 3?
It isn't just about RDJ. You’ve got Jude Law, who is arguably just as busy. You can’t have a Sherlock movie without his Watson. Their chemistry is the entire franchise. If you swap Jude Law out, you don't have a movie; you have a disaster. Jude has been doing Star Wars projects and theater, and finding a four-month window where both men are free is a logistical nightmare.
Then there’s the director situation. Guy Ritchie directed the first two and gave them that frantic, "Sherlock-vision" kinetic energy. But for Sherlock Holmes 3 Robert Downey Jr version, the baton was passed to Dexter Fletcher. You know him from Rocketman. Fletcher has been incredibly candid about the "bad luck" hitting the production. First, it was the script. Then, the global pandemic shut down the entire industry just as things were supposed to get moving.
By the time the world reopened, the landscape had changed.
Budget is another beast. A period-piece action flick isn't cheap. If you're going to bring back RDJ after his Oscar win for Oppenheimer, his quote is higher than ever. Warner Bros. has to decide if the ROI (Return on Investment) is still there for a trilogy-capper that’s arriving fourteen years late. It’s a huge gamble.
The Creative Pivot: Is it even a movie anymore?
There was a massive buzz a couple of years ago about Team Downey expanding the "Sherlock-verse" onto Max (formerly HBO Max). The idea was to create two spin-off series that would link back to a third film. This is the "Marvel-ization" of everything. But lately, those rumors have gone quiet.
I think the biggest hurdle is the script. Sherlock fans are picky. You can’t just have him punch a guy and call it a day. You need a mystery that actually challenges a 2026 audience that has already seen Knives Out, Glass Onion, and Benedict Cumberbatch’s take. It has to be fresh.
The Moriarty Problem and the Plot We Know
If you look back at the ending of the second film, Moriarty—played brilliantly by Jared Harris—supposedly went over the Reichenbach Falls with Sherlock. Sherlock survived. We saw him. But did Moriarty? In the books, he definitely dies. But Hollywood loves a rematch.
There were early reports that the third film would take place in the American Old West. Specifically San Francisco.
Think about that for a second. Sherlock Holmes in a dusty, lawless California. It fits the "fish out of water" trope, and it allows for a completely different visual style than the gray, foggy streets of London. This was reportedly the direction the script was heading under Chris Brancato. Whether that’s still the plan remains to be seen, as scripts in development hell get rewritten more times than a Starbucks order.
- Location: Rumored to be San Francisco / North America.
- Returning Cast: Robert Downey Jr, Jude Law, and potentially Rachel McAdams in a flashback or surprise return.
- The Villain: Unconfirmed, but there's a heavy push for a new intellectual equal if Moriarty stays dead.
Why Robert Downey Jr Still Cares
A lot of actors would have walked away by now. They’d say, "I’m an Oscar winner, I’ve got nothing left to prove." But Downey has a deep, personal connection to this character. He’s often credited Sherlock with being the role that proved he could lead a non-superhero franchise.
He likes the intellectual vanity of Holmes. He likes the martial arts—the Baritsu.
In a 2023 interview, Susan Downey mentioned that Robert wants to do it, but only if it’s "the best one." They don't want to just cash a check. They know that if they come back after this much time, it has to be a home run. Otherwise, they're just tainting the legacy of two very solid movies.
The fan base is still there, too. If you look at streaming numbers, the first two films still perform incredibly well. People miss that specific vibe—the bromance between Holmes and Watson that felt more like a bickering married couple than a detective duo.
The "Oppenheimer" Effect
We have to talk about the "Oscar Bump." Before Oppenheimer, RDJ was the "Marvel Guy." Now, he’s a "Serious Actor" again in the eyes of the Academy and the general public. This gives him immense leverage. He can basically greenlight any project he wants. If he tells Warner Bros. "I’m ready to do Sherlock now," they’re going to listen.
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But it also makes him more selective. He might not want to jump back into a massive, CGI-heavy action franchise immediately. He might want something more grounded. This might actually be good for Sherlock Holmes 3 Robert Downey fans, because a more grounded, character-focused Sherlock is exactly what the third movie needs to feel relevant.
How to track the progress of the sequel
If you're looking for real updates, stop looking at "leak" sites that promise a trailer every two weeks. Those are fake. Total nonsense. Instead, watch the production trades like The Hollywood Reporter or Deadline.
- Look for "Greenlight" status: This means the money is locked in.
- Watch Jude Law's press tours: He is usually the most honest about whether he’s seen a script.
- Check the "Team Downey" slate: They are the ones driving the bus.
Practical Next Steps for Fans
Stop waiting for a surprise drop. Movies this big don't just appear. If the movie were filming right now, there would be set photos of RDJ in a Victorian suit all over Instagram.
Instead, focus on the confirmed media. We know that the IP is being looked at for television. If those Max series actually move into production, you can bet the third movie will follow shortly after to act as the "tentpole" for the universe.
The best thing you can do is revisit the original Arthur Conan Doyle stories or re-watch the 2009 and 2011 films to spot the clues you missed. There’s a lot of DNA from the books The Final Problem and The Adventure of the Empty House that hasn’t been fully mined yet.
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The game is still afoot, technically. It’s just a very, very slow game.
What to Watch For in 2026
If we don't hear a definitive "filming starts on [Date]" by the end of this year, the odds of this movie happening with the original cast drop significantly. Actors age. The "action" part of "action-mystery" becomes harder to pull off convincingly.
However, the industry is currently obsessed with "Legacy Sequels." Look at Top Gun: Maverick or Twisters. Audiences are craving familiar characters played by actors they actually like. In that climate, Sherlock Holmes 3 Robert Downey Jr is a goldmine waiting to be tapped. Warner Bros. knows it. Downey knows it. We just need the schedules to stop clashing.
Keep an eye on the official Warner Bros. Discovery investor calls. That's where the real news about "franchise health" usually leaks out first. For now, the movie remains in "active development"—the Hollywood equivalent of "I'm five minutes away" when you're actually still in the shower.
To stay truly updated, follow the production credits of Dexter Fletcher. As of now, he is still the attached director. If he drops out, that's the signal that the project is either being totally reimagined or shelved for another decade. Until then, keep the pipe lit and the violin tuned.