You’ve probably heard the "death of the mall" narrative a thousand times by now. It’s a classic headline. But if you look at the Simon Property Group share price lately, that story starts to feel kinda flimsy. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around $184.92. That is not the price of a dying business. Honestly, it’s the price of a company that basically figured out how to turn a retail apocalypse into a luxury real estate play.
While the broader market spent 2025 chasing AI hype, Simon just kept collecting rent and raising dividends. It’s weirdly steady. Most people think malls are dusty relics, but Simon's portfolio—which includes heavy hitters like Copley Place and Woodbury Common—is seeing occupancy rates near 96.4%.
Why the Market is Rethinking Malls
The reality is that "commodity" retail is dead, but luxury is thriving. Simon knows this. They’ve been aggressively pivoting away from the sad, empty anchor stores of the 90s and toward "live-work-play" ecosystems.
Investors used to panic every time a Sears closed. Now? Simon loves it. It gives them the chance to take back that space and put in a Life Time Fitness, a hotel, or high-end apartments that pay way more per square foot.
The 2025 Earnings Surprise
Looking back at the Q3 2025 data, Simon beat earnings expectations with an EPS of $3.22, compared to the $3.09 analysts were betting on. That’s a significant beat. However, revenue was a bit of a mixed bag, coming in at **$1.60 billion**.
It’s interesting. The stock hasn't just shot up in a straight line. It hit an all-time high of $188.29 right around Christmas 2025, then cooled off a bit. That’s typical for a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust). You aren't buying this for Nvidia-style 100% gains; you're buying it for the check that hits your account every quarter.
Deciphering the Simon Property Group Share Price
If you're tracking the Simon Property Group share price today, you have to look at the yield. The forward dividend yield is sitting at roughly 4.73%. In a world where interest rates are finally starting to normalize, that’s a pretty attractive number for income seekers.
Wall Street seems mostly "meh" but cautiously optimistic. Out of about 13 major analysts covering the stock, the consensus is a "Hold." But check out the price targets:
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- Average Target: $190.00
- High Estimate: $225.00
- Low Estimate: $169.00
Scotiabank recently bumped their target to $189, and UBS did the same. They aren't predicting a moonshot, but they are acknowledging that the company’s "Funds From Operations" (FFO)—which is basically the REIT version of profit—is healthy. For 2025, FFO guidance was raised to the $12.60 to $12.70 range.
The Taubman Factor
One thing the casual observer misses is the Taubman Realty Group (TRG) integration. David Simon, the CEO, has been vocal about this. By the end of 2025, they were expecting a massive non-cash gain from remeasuring their interest in TRG. Moving into 2026, the management of these assets is expected to be "accretive," which is just fancy CEO-speak for "this is going to make us more money."
Is the Dividend Actually Safe?
There’s always some chatter about whether a 4.7% yield is sustainable. Currently, Simon pays an annual dividend of $8.80 per share.
Some bears point to the payout ratio, which can look scary high if you use standard GAAP earnings. But REITs are different. You have to look at FFO. With FFO around $12.65, an $8.80 dividend is actually quite comfortable. They’re paying out about 70% of their cash flow, which is standard for a healthy REIT.
What Really Matters for 2026
We are entering a "fundamentals-driven" year. The free money era is over. Now, it’s about who actually has the best real estate. Simon’s malls are averaging $742 in sales per square foot. Compare that to your local run-down "zombie mall" that's lucky to hit $300.
The gap between "A-grade" malls and everything else is widening. If you own the best property in a wealthy zip code, you have pricing power. Simon has that in spades.
Risks to Watch
It isn't all sunshine and Cinnabons. There are real risks:
- Consumer Fatigue: If inflation spikes again or the job market softens, that $742 per square foot number will drop.
- The "Tourist" Problem: High-end outlets rely on international travelers. If global travel dips, the "Premium Outlets" segment feels it first.
- Interest Rates: Even though rates have peaked, they are still higher than they were three years ago. This makes refinancing debt more expensive for all REITs.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you are watching the Simon Property Group share price with an eye toward buying, don't just look at the daily ticker.
- Watch the FFO growth: If Simon can continue to grow FFO in the mid-single digits, the share price will likely track that growth alongside the dividend.
- Check occupancy trends: Anything above 95% is a position of strength. If it starts dipping toward 92%, that’s a red flag that tenants are struggling.
- Monitor the February 2nd Earnings Call: This will be the big one where they lay out the official roadmap for the rest of 2026.
Keep an eye on the $180 support level. If the price stays above that, the technical trend looks solid. If you're an income investor, the 4.7% yield remains one of the more reliable "bond-proxy" plays in the current equity market. The "mall is dead" story was a good one, but the numbers suggest Simon is very much alive.