Honestly, the satellite radio business is a weird place to be right now. If you're looking at the SIRI share price today, you’ve probably noticed the numbers aren't exactly screaming "moon mission." As of market close on Friday, January 16, 2026, Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) sat at $20.45.
That was a 2.2% drop in a single day.
It’s been a rough ride. People keep waiting for a rebound, but the stock has been underperforming the S&P 500 by a massive margin—we're talking nearly 77 percentage points over the last twelve months. It's tough to watch.
What is happening with the SIRI share price today?
The current valuation is kinda fascinating if you're a value investor. Or terrifying if you're holding a bag.
Right now, the market cap is hovering around $6.88 billion. To put that in perspective, this is a company that still brings in about $8.5 billion in annual revenue. You’ve got a Forward P/E ratio of about 6.78, which is dirt cheap compared to the broader media industry.
But there’s a reason it’s cheap.
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Investors are spooked. The big news recently involved Penn Davis McFarland dumping nearly 500,000 shares. When a fund that size slashes its position from 1.5% of its assets down to a tiny 0.26%, people notice. It signals a lack of confidence in the short-term "pivot" management has been promising.
The Dividend Dilemma
The one thing everyone talks about with Sirius XM is that dividend. It’s beefy.
With a yield currently sitting above 5.2%, it looks like a dream for income seekers. But here is the catch: a high yield is often just a symptom of a falling stock price. If the price keeps sliding, that "5% gain" you're getting in dividends is getting swallowed whole by capital losses.
Why 2026 is a make-or-break year
There are three big things moving the needle right now.
First, the Howard Stern factor. He just signed a new three-year deal. That’s great for keeping the "super-fans" subscribed, but it’s expensive. Sirius XM is trying to find $200 million in cost savings, and paying top-tier talent top-tier money makes that a difficult needle to thread.
Second, the Berkshire Hathaway stake. Warren Buffett’s firm owns a whopping 37% of the company. That is a massive safety net, but it’s also a ceiling. If Berkshire decides to stop buying—or worse, starts selling—the floor could fall out.
Third, the shift to streaming.
Pandora is trying. It really is. Ad-supported revenue is growing, but it's still a small slice of the pie compared to the core satellite subscription business. The company expects to lose about 530,000 self-pay subscribers by the end of this year. That’s a lot of people deciding they’d rather just use Spotify or Apple Music in their cars.
Wall Street is split down the middle
The analysts aren't sure what to make of it either. Out of about ten major firms covering the stock:
- Three say Sell.
- Three say Hold.
- Four are leaning toward Buy or Strong Buy.
The average price target is $24.29. If they’re right, that’s about an 18% upside from where we are today. But the "low" targets are down around $18.00, so there is still plenty of room to fall if the February 5 earnings report shows more subscriber churn.
Is the "New Siri" a factor?
Don't confuse the stock ticker SIRI with Apple's virtual assistant. It's a common mistake, but there is a weird overlap in 2026.
Apple is revamping its Siri AI (likely with a Google Gemini partnership) this spring. While that has zero to do with Sirius XM's balance sheet, "Siri" is going to be in the news a lot. Sometimes, retail traders get confused. It sounds silly, but sentiment is a powerful thing in a volatile market.
Actionable insights for your portfolio
If you're thinking about jumping in, don't just chase the yield.
- Watch the February 5 earnings. Specifically, look at the "Self-Pay Subscriber" numbers. If that loss is smaller than 500k, the stock might actually pop.
- Check the Debt-to-Equity. It's currently around 0.93. In a world of higher-for-longer interest rates, that debt is getting more expensive to service.
- The "Buffett Floor." As long as Berkshire Hathaway is holding 37%, a total collapse is unlikely. But "unlikely" isn't a strategy.
Sirius XM is basically a bet on whether satellite radio can survive in an AI-driven, high-speed internet world. It’s a cash-flow machine, but the machine is getting a bit rusty.
Keep an eye on the SIRI share price today relative to that $20.00 psychological floor. If it breaks that, the next stop could be the 52-week low of $18.69.
To stay ahead, set an alert for the 13F filings from Berkshire Hathaway next month. This will tell you if the world's most famous value investor is still backing this play or if he's starting to look for the exit.