If you live on Long Island, you know the drill. The grocery store lines for milk and bread start forming the second a meteorologist mentions a "slight chance" of accumulation. But honestly, snowfall totals for Long Island are some of the most frustratingly unpredictable numbers in the Northeast. One town gets buried under a foot of powder while five miles away, your cousin is just dealing with some annoying slush and a wet driveway.
It’s weird, right? We’re a relatively flat fish-shaped piece of land sticking out into the Atlantic. You’d think the weather would be uniform. It’s not. Not even close.
The Great Divide: Nassau vs. Suffolk
Most people think Suffolk always gets more snow because it’s further "out east." That’s actually a total myth. Just look at the storm we had back in mid-December 2025. Nassau County actually edged out Suffolk in several spots. Levittown clocked in at about 7.2 inches, while places like Mount Sinai and Islip in Suffolk were hovering closer to 6 inches.
Then you have those bizarre outliers. During that same December stretch, Commack saw 8.5 inches. Meanwhile, Jamesport—way out on the North Fork—only saw about 4 inches. Why? It basically comes down to the "ocean effect." The water is a giant heat sink. If the wind is blowing off the relatively warm Atlantic, it eats away at the snow totals for towns along the South Shore.
Why Snowfall Totals for Long Island are Getting Weirder
We’re currently in the 2025-2026 winter season, and the data is already telling a strange story. After a couple of years where we basically forgot what a shovel looked like—remember the 2023-2024 season with only 26 inches?—things are starting to pick back up.
But there’s a nuance here that most people miss. We aren't just looking at "how much" snow falls; we're looking at the snow-to-liquid ratio.
- Dry Snow: 1 inch of rain equals about 15-20 inches of snow. This is the fluffy stuff you can use a leaf blower on.
- Wet Snow: 1 inch of rain equals maybe 5-8 inches of snow. This is the "heart attack snow" that breaks your back and takes down power lines.
- Average LI Snow: We usually sit around a 10:1 ratio, but because our temperatures hover so close to the freezing mark ($32^{\circ}F$), we often end up with that heavy, dense slush that ruins your day.
If the temperature is even $33^{\circ}F$ at Islip (ISP), you might get 2 inches of slush. If it drops to $30^{\circ}F$ in Syosset, they might get 5 inches of powder. That tiny $3^{\circ}F$ difference is the reason your weather app is almost always wrong.
The All-Time Heavyweights
You can't talk about snowfall totals for Long Island without mentioning the 2013 blizzard. That was the big one for Suffolk. February 9, 2013, still holds the crown for the highest one-day total in the county's history: a staggering 30 inches.
Nassau’s record is much older. You have to go all the way back to December 27, 1947, to find their 22-inch daily record. And of course, the "Great White Hurricane" of 1888 is still the legendary benchmark, even if the records from back then are a bit fuzzy compared to modern NWS sensors. Back then, they reported drifts in Brooklyn and Queens that covered three-story houses. Imagine trying to find your Honda Civic in that.
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Elevation: The North Shore Secret
Ever wonder why Glen Cove or Brookville seems to get more snow than Massapequa? It isn't just the distance from the ocean. It’s the hills. Long Island was formed by a glacier, which left behind a "terminal moraine"—basically a big ridge of rocks and dirt along the North Shore.
Even a couple of hundred feet of elevation can cool the air just enough to turn rain into snow. It’s called orographic lift. As the air moves up over those hills, it cools and dumps more moisture. That’s why towns like Huntington and Old Westbury often report higher totals than the flat plains of the South Shore.
What to Watch for This Winter
As we move through the rest of the 2026 winter, keep an eye on the "Nor’easters." These are the primary drivers of our big totals. Unlike "Clippers" that come across the country from Canada and bring dry, light snow, Nor’easters suck up massive amounts of moisture from the Gulf Stream.
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If the storm tracks just 50 miles too far east, we get nothing. If it tracks 50 miles too far west, we get a rainy mess. The "sweet spot" usually involves the storm center passing just outside the 40/70 benchmark ($40^{\circ}N, 70^{\circ}W$).
Actionable Insights for Long Islanders
- Don't Trust the Map: If you see a map showing "6-10 inches" for the whole island, look at the wind direction. If it's coming from the Southeast, subtract 2 inches from your total if you live south of Sunrise Highway.
- Check the Ground Temp: If it’s been $50^{\circ}F$ for three days before a storm, the snow won't stick immediately. The first 1-2 inches will melt on contact, meaning your "total" on the grass will be higher than what’s on the road.
- Use the "Upton" Station: The National Weather Service office in Upton (Suffolk County) is the gold standard for data. Follow their "Snowfall Probability" maps rather than the local news' "Big Number" graphics.
- Watch the Rain-Snow Line: On Long Island, this line usually sits right over the LIE. If you're north of the expressway, you’re almost always going to see higher accumulations than the folks down by the Great South Bay.
Predicting snowfall here is less of a science and more of a high-stakes gamble against the Atlantic Ocean. But knowing these local quirks helps you realize why your backyard looks like a tundra while the next town over is just dealing with a puddle. Keep your shovel ready, but maybe don't panic until you see the flakes actually sticking to the pavement.