If you’re staring at a screen right now looking at a 10 day weather forecast st thomas, you’re probably seeing a lot of little rain cloud icons. It looks like a washout, right? Honestly, that is the first thing almost every traveler gets wrong about the US Virgin Islands in January.
You see "30% chance of rain" and think your beach day is toast. In reality, that usually means a ten-minute "liquid sunshine" burst that dries up before you can even finish your drink at a beach bar. I’ve seen people cancel boat charters because of those icons, only to sit in their hotel room watching a perfectly blue sky over Magens Bay.
The Reality of the 10 Day Weather Forecast St Thomas
Let's look at what’s actually happening on the ground right now. As of Friday, January 16, 2026, the temperature in Saint Thomas is sitting at a steady 80°F, though it feels more like 84°F thanks to that tropical humidity. We’ve got light rain moving through today, but look at the trend for the next week and a half.
The consistency is wild. From now through next Sunday, the high temperature is hitting 80°F almost every single day. Even the "lows" aren't low—they’re hovering between 77°F and 79°F. You don't need a sweater; you need a fan.
Breakdown of the Upcoming Week
The "Christmas Winds" are definitely making an appearance. We’re seeing east winds between 16 mph and 23 mph. This is a big deal for anyone planning to be on the water. If you're heading to the North Shore, expect some swell.
- Today (Jan 16): Light rain with a high of 80°F. Humidity is at 74%, so it's a bit sticky.
- The Weekend (Jan 17-18): Saturday is looking mostly sunny with a high of 80°F. Sunday goes full sunny. Just be aware—winds are kicking up to 23 mph, which makes for a choppy boat ride but keeps the mosquitoes at bay.
- Early Next Week (Jan 19-21): Mostly sunny to partly sunny. The rain chance drops significantly to around 15% on Monday and Tuesday. It's basically prime vacation weather.
- Late Week Outlook (Jan 22-25): We might see a return of light rain on Thursday, but the following Friday through Sunday (Jan 23-25) is currently forecasted as pure sun.
Why the "Feels Like" Temperature Matters More
The raw numbers rarely tell the whole story in the Caribbean. A 10 day weather forecast st thomas might say 80 degrees, but the dew point and humidity make a massive difference. Right now, humidity is bouncing around 74% to 76%.
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When the humidity is that high, your sweat doesn't evaporate as fast. That’s why the "feels like" temperature is hitting 84°F or higher. If you're hiking the Reef Bay Trail or walking up the 99 Steps in Charlotte Amalie, you’ll feel it.
Also, don't sleep on the UV index. Even on cloudy days, it’s hitting 5 or 6. That’s "burn in 20 minutes" territory for anyone who hasn't seen the sun since October. Use reef-safe sunscreen—it's actually the law here. Brands like Raw Elements or Badger are good bets because they don't have the chemicals (oxybenzone and octinoxate) that bleach the coral.
Microclimates: The Island’s Secret
St. Thomas isn't just one weather bubble. It’s a rock in the middle of the ocean with 1,500-foot peaks. This creates microclimates.
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Basically, the east end (Red Hook) is often drier and sunnier than the lush, green north side. If it's raining at your Airbnb in Hull Bay, hop in a safari taxi and head toward the East End. Chances are, it's bone dry over there.
Marine Conditions and "North Swells"
For the sailors and snorkelers, the wind is your biggest variable. Those 23 mph easterly winds forecast for Sunday mean the Atlantic side of the island is going to be rough.
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If you’re planning to snorkel, head to the protected bays on the south side or find a leeward spot. Brewers Bay or Lindbergh Bay are usually much calmer when the east winds are howling. The NWS is actually flagging hazardous marine conditions for the weekend of Jan 17-18 due to a northerly swell, so keep that in mind before booking a small powerboat.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Trip
Don't let the forecast icons freak you out. Here is how to actually play the weather in St. Thomas this week:
- Watch the Webcams: Sites like the Magens Bay or Sapphire Beach webcams give you a real-time look. If the forecast says rain but the webcam shows blue, go to the beach.
- Plan Around the Wind: Use Sunday (the windiest day at 23 mph) for land-based activities like shopping in Charlotte Amalie or visiting Mountain Top. Save the boat days for when the gusts drop.
- Hydrate Early: With a "feels like" of 84°F and high humidity, you'll lose water faster than you think. Drink a liter of water before you even touch a Painkiller cocktail.
- Morning vs. Afternoon: Tropical showers often peak in the early morning. If you wake up to gray skies, wait an hour. Usually, by 10:00 AM, the sun has "burned" the clouds off.
- Check the Swell: If you're a surfer, that northerly swell hitting around Jan 17 is your green light. If you're a casual swimmer with kids, stick to the south-facing beaches like Secret Harbour during those days to avoid the big waves.
The bottom line? A 10 day weather forecast st thomas in January is about as predictable as a tropical breeze. It’s consistently warm, slightly breezy, and rarely stays rainy for long. Pack the SPF, grab a hat, and just get out there.