You’ve seen the talking heads on CNBC. Usually, it’s a lot of noise. But when Stephanie Roth pops up on the terminal or walks into a Bloomberg studio, people actually lean in. Why? Because the Chief Economist at Wolfe Research has developed a knack for cutting through the "recession is coming" hysteria that's been a constant hum since 2022.
Honestly, the macro world is messy right now. We’re dealing with the fallout of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) of 2025, shifting tariff policies, and an AI capex cycle that feels like a rocket ship without a brake lever. Roth is one of the few voices consistently pointing out that the U.S. economy isn't just surviving—it’s actually in a position to thrive in 2026.
Basically, she’s not buying the doom-and-gloom.
The Stephanie Roth Wolfe Research Edge
Roth didn't just appear out of thin air. She spent years at J.P. Morgan Private Bank and worked under the legendary Nancy Lazar at Cornerstone Macro. That’s a serious pedigree. Since joining Wolfe Research in late 2023, she’s pivoted the firm's economic voice toward a more nuanced, data-heavy realism.
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What sets her apart is how she looks at the "K-shaped" economy. You've probably noticed it: some people are doing great, while others are getting crushed by insurance premiums and medical bills. Roth doesn't ignore the struggle. She tracks the line items—lodging, transportation services, used car prices—to see exactly where the "angst of affordability" is hitting the hardest.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 2026 Outlook
The consensus for 2026 often feels like a coin flip. Will we crash? Will the Fed mess up? Roth’s 2026 U.S. economic outlook is surprisingly optimistic. Here is the breakdown of what her team is actually forecasting:
The Growth Numbers
Wolfe Research is looking for "slightly above-trend growth" of around 2.1%. While others are bracing for a slowdown, Roth sees tailwinds from the 2025 budget bill and a potential Supreme Court ruling that could refund some of those heavy tariff costs to businesses. That’s a lot of capital that could suddenly flow back into the system.
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Inflation Isn’t Done With Us
Don't expect 2% inflation anytime soon. Roth expects it to remain "sticky," likely ending 2026 around 2.7%. It’s not a crisis, but it’s enough to keep the Fed from getting too aggressive with rate cuts.
The Labor Market Contradiction
This is the weird part. We have a historically low unemployment rate, yet monthly payroll growth is sluggish outside of healthcare. Roth expects the U.S. to add about 80,000 jobs per month in 2026. It’s not a boom, but she doesn't see a massive layoff cycle either.
The AI Bubble: Is It 1999 Again?
Everyone wants to know if AI is a scam or a revolution. Roth leans toward revolution, but with a reality check. She recently noted that Big Tech’s plan to dump over $500 billion into capex for 2026 is actually backed by real cash flow—unlike the dot-com era where companies were burning money they didn't have.
She thinks the "AI bubble" fears are overblown for now. Instead of a crash, she’s watching how AI drives productivity gains in boring sectors like logistics and back-office operations. It's about the "mid-innings" of the cycle, not the end.
The "Waller" Factor and the Fed
When asked about the future of the Federal Reserve, Roth has been pretty vocal. She’s mentioned that the markets would likely prefer a Chris Waller-style leadership—someone predictable and data-dependent. There’s been a lot of talk about Kevin Hassett or other more political picks, but Roth highlights that market stability depends on the Fed's independence remaining intact.
If the Fed can land rates around 3% by the end of 2026, it supports the "virtuous cycle" of growth her team is betting on.
Actionable Takeaways for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this? If you’re following the Wolfe Research framework, the strategy isn't "set it and forget it."
- Watch the Midterm Volatility: 2026 is a midterm election year. These years historically see 10-15% pullbacks. Roth’s team suggests "riding the wave" rather than jumping ship when the water gets choppy.
- Focus on Sector Selection: Not all stocks will win. With a K-shaped economy, you want to be in sectors that benefit from AI infrastructure or high-end consumer spending, while being wary of companies exposed to low-income discretionary spending.
- Ignore the "Noise": Much of the current economic anxiety is driven by policy uncertainty (tariffs, DOGE layoffs, etc.). Roth’s research suggests the anticipation of these policies often outweighs their actual impact.
The U.S. economy has a weird way of surprising the skeptics. Stephanie Roth's work at Wolfe Research provides a data-backed reason to stay in the game, even when the headlines tell you to run.
Keep an eye on the 10-year yield and the monthly CPI prints. If Roth is right, the "soft landing" isn't just a dream—it’s the reality we’re currently living through. Keep your portfolio diversified and don't let the 24-hour news cycle dictate your long-term strategy.