Markets were closed.
Sunday, October 12, 2025, wasn't a day for frantic ringing bells on the New York Stock Exchange floor, but it was anything but quiet for anyone with a brokerage account. If you’ve been watching the charts lately, you know that October has been a weirdly triumphant, yet nerve-wracking month. The S&P 500 had recently hit a fresh all-time closing high of 6,891, and the "Magnificent Seven" were basically carrying the entire team on their backs.
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Honestly, the "vibe" on this particular Sunday was one of cautious anticipation. Investors were chewing on a bizarre mix of signals: a massive government shutdown that had been dragging on since the start of the month, a complete blackout of official economic data, and the lingering echoes of a massive crypto liquidation from just two days prior.
The Big Blind Spot: A Data-Free Market
The U.S. government was shut down. That sounds dramatic because it is. For investors on October 12, this meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other agencies weren't putting out the usual inflation or jobs reports. We were flying blind, or "data-lite," as some analysts on Wall Street were calling it.
Without the official CPI or payroll numbers, everyone was obsessively refreshing private-sector reports. We were looking at things like the ADP National Employment Report and regional activity gauges just to guess if the economy was actually cooling or if it was about to overheat. It's kinda like trying to drive a car with a foggy windshield while your GPS is broken.
What really happened was that the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, had to start making decisions based on "fragmented signals." Even without the government’s spreadsheets, the market was pricing in another rate cut for later in the month. Why? Because the labor market was clearly softening, even if we didn't have the official "stamp" on the numbers yet.
The Trump-China Rollercoaster
If you remember Friday, October 10, the market was in a tailspin. President Trump had threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese imports after Beijing tightened their grip on rare earth minerals. The S&P 500 dropped about 3% in a heartbeat.
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Then came Sunday, October 12.
The mood shifted because of a post on Truth Social. Trump wrote that "it will all be fine" and that President Xi "just had a bad moment." It’s wild how a few sentences on social media can settle a global market, but that’s the reality of the stock market today October 12 2025. This "softer tone" gave futures a much-needed lift. It signaled that maybe, just maybe, a total trade war wasn't on the menu for Monday morning.
Tech’s $4 Trillion Milestone
Alphabet (Google’s parent company) was the name on everyone's lips this weekend. They were fresh off a massive deal where Apple chose Google’s Gemini AI to power the new Siri. This sent Alphabet’s valuation toward that mind-boggling $4 trillion mark.
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While the "Magnificent Seven" were dominating, there was a visible split. Meta was lagging, dropping over 11% earlier in the month, while Nvidia and Amazon were still soaring. On this Sunday, the big question wasn't if tech would grow, but whether the valuations had become a "bubble" that was about to pop.
Bitcoin’s Weekend Recovery
The crypto world was a mess on Friday. Bitcoin had plummeted to around $107,000, which triggered nearly $19 billion in liquidations. It was a bloodbath.
By Sunday afternoon, things were looking a bit better. Bitcoin had clawed back to roughly $116,000. It was a classic "buy the dip" moment, fueled by that same easing of trade tensions that helped the equity futures. Still, it was a reminder that even at these high prices, the floor can fall out from under you in minutes.
What Most People Got Wrong
A lot of people think the market only moves when the exchange is open. That’s wrong. The real moves happen on days like October 12, when the news settles and the "smart money" decides how to react to the weekend’s chaos.
We saw a huge divergence this year. While the S&P 500 was up about 17.5% year-to-date by October, international markets like the MSCI World ex USA were actually outperforming us. Investors were diversifying away from the U.S. dollar because of the trade policy drama and the government shutdown.
Actionable Steps for the Week Ahead
If you're looking at your portfolio on a Sunday like this, here is what you actually need to do:
- Watch the 10-Year Treasury Yield: It was hovering around 4.1% to 4.4%. If this spikes, your tech stocks are going to hurt.
- Ignore the Social Media Noise: One post from a politician can move the needle, but it doesn't change corporate earnings. Look at the "blended" earnings growth rate, which was hitting double digits (around 10.7%) for the S&P 500.
- Check Your Tech Concentration: If 50% of your money is in three AI companies, you're not "investing," you're gambling on a specific narrative.
- Prepare for "Live" Fed Decisions: The upcoming meeting isn't a guaranteed cut anymore. Powell has been hawkish, and the market is finally starting to believe him.
Keep your eye on the opening bell tomorrow. The "China-is-fine" sentiment might give us a green start, but with a government shutdown still in place, the volatility is nowhere near over.
Check your stop-loss orders. Rebalance if you’re too heavy in growth. Stay liquid.