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If you woke up today and checked your portfolio, you probably noticed the stock price of DraftKings looks like it just fell off a cliff. Down roughly 8% in a single session. On Friday, January 16, 2026, the ticker closed at $32.62. That’s a stinging drop from the $35.46 we saw just 24 hours ago.
Why?
Honestly, it’s a classic "good news, bad news" sandwich, but the bad news currently tastes a lot like a federal crackdown. While the analysts at Wells Fargo spent Thursday shouting from the rooftops about an upgrade to "Overweight" and a flashy $49 price target, the NCAA decided to play defense. They sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) basically begging for a federal halt on college sports betting markets.
The market hates uncertainty. It hates regulation talk even more.
The NCAA Problem and the Prediction Market Pivot
DraftKings isn't just a sportsbook anymore. They’ve been pivoting hard into "prediction markets"—think of it like the stock market, but for events. You buy a "contract" on whether a team wins, and the price fluctuates. They launched their DraftKings Predictions app late last year after buying Railbird Technologies.
It was supposed to be the big 2026 catalyst.
Then the NCAA stepped in. They’re worried about student-athletes and the integrity of the game, which is fair, but for investors, this feels like a wet blanket. If the CFTC actually listens and puts a freeze on these contracts, a massive chunk of DraftKings’ 2026 growth strategy just goes poof.
It's a tough pill to swallow because, until this morning, things were actually looking up.
What the Big Banks are Whispering
Despite the blood on the charts today, Wall Street is surprisingly bullish. Like, "aggressive" bullish.
- Wells Fargo analyst George Maybach boosted his target to $49.00.
- Citigroup is sitting at a $48.00 target.
- JPMorgan is hovering around $42.00.
The average price target for the stock price of DraftKings is still sitting around $45.72. If you do the math, that’s over 30% upside from where we are right now. Why the disconnect? Well, the pros are looking at the cash flow. DraftKings is finally—finally—turning the corner toward consistent profitability. For years, they just burned cash to get customers. Now, they’re actually keeping them.
Management even launched a $2 billion share buyback program. You don’t do that if you think the company is going under. They’ve already sucked up about 9.3 million shares.
The 2025 Hangover
We have to talk about what happened last year to understand why the stock is so twitchy. 2025 was a weird one for DKNG. The "house" didn't always win.
In late 2025, the company had to slash its revenue guidance by about $300 million. Why? Because football bettors had a "lucky" run. When the favorites win and cover the spread consistently, the sportsbook bleeds. That, combined with a slower-than-expected launch in some states, kept the stock price in a $30 to $50 range for basically two years.
Comparing the Giants: DraftKings vs. FanDuel
It’s the Pepsi vs. Coke of the gambling world.
FanDuel (owned by Flutter Entertainment) has been playing a different game lately. While DraftKings went "all-in" on prediction markets across 38 states, FanDuel has been more cautious, only rolling out in five states like North Dakota and South Carolina.
DraftKings is the aggressor. They want the market share, and they’re willing to take the regulatory heat to get it. FanDuel is playing the long game.
Then you have the dark horse: bet365. The British giant is starting to eat into the U.S. market, specifically in places like New Jersey and Colorado. They nearly doubled their revenue in some spots last October. DraftKings isn't just fighting FanDuel anymore; they're fighting a global machine.
Technicals: Is $31.16 the Bottom?
If you’re a chart person, today was ugly. The stock broke its short-term moving averages. That usually triggers more selling.
However, there is a massive "support" zone at $31.16. Historically, every time the stock price of DraftKings gets near $30, the buyers come out of the woodwork. We saw it in 2024, and we saw it again in mid-2025.
If it breaks below $31, though? Look out below. Some of the more pessimistic quant models, like the one at CoinCodex, have targets as low as $25 or even $11 in a "worst-case" scenario where college betting gets banned nationwide.
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The Georgia Wildcard
There is one big thing that could save the stock this quarter: Georgia.
Lawmakers in Georgia are currently debating a bill that would legalize online sports betting and allow up to 18 online sportsbooks. If that passes, it’s a goldmine. Georgia is a massive sports state. A "Yes" vote there would likely send the stock price of DraftKings back toward $40 overnight.
How to Handle the Volatility
Buying this stock isn't for the faint of heart. It moves 5% or more on a regular basis—it’s done that 22 times in the last year alone.
If you’re looking at this as a long-term play, you have to ignore the NCAA headlines and focus on the EBITDA. The company is projected to generate between $450 million and $550 million in positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year. That’s the real story.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead:
- Watch the $31.16 Level: If the stock holds this support on Monday or Tuesday, it might be a "buy the dip" moment for a swing trade.
- Monitor the CFTC: Any official response from the regulators regarding the NCAA’s letter will cause a massive price swing. No news is good news here.
- Check Georgia Legislative Updates: Follow the progress of the sports betting bill; it’s the most immediate "macro" catalyst for the industry.
- Earnings Prep: DraftKings usually reports in February. Look for updates on how their "prediction market" margins are actually performing compared to traditional betting.
The stock is currently a "Sell" candidate for short-term traders but remains a "Strong Buy" for most big-bank analysts. It’s a classic battle between technical weakness and fundamental growth. Just don't bet the house on a single day's price action.