You know that feeling when you've had the TV remote for three hours and finally someone just snatches it out of your hand? That’s basically the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now. After four years of sitting comfortably on the NFC South throne, the crown just slipped. It wasn't a clean break, either. It was messy, full of tiebreakers, and ended with the Bucs sitting at home while the playoffs kick off without them for the first time since 2019.
Honestly, it’s a bit of a shock to the system for fans in Tampa. We’ve been spoiled. Since Tom Brady showed up in 2020 and Baker Mayfield kept the engine humming, the tampa bay bucs division was essentially a foregone conclusion. But the 2025-26 season just wrapped up, and the landscape is unrecognizable.
The Reign Is Officially Over
For a while there, it looked like Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield were going to pull it off again. They started the season 6-2. They looked like the only adults in a room full of toddlers. But then the wheels didn't just come off; they basically disintegrated. A 1-7 stretch after the bye week is the stuff of nightmares.
If you’re looking for a silver lining, they technically finished with the same 8-9 record as the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons. But "technically" doesn't get you a home playoff game. Because the Panthers went 3-1 against the Bucs and Falcons in their head-to-head mini-bracket, Dave Canales—the guy who was literally the Bucs' offensive coordinator just two years ago—is the one heading to the postseason.
Talk about a "student becomes the master" moment that nobody in Tampa wanted to see.
What Went Wrong in the NFC South?
The NFC South has always been the "Island of Misfit Toys" in the NFL. People call it the "NFC South Trash Heap," which is a bit harsh, but let's be real—winning the division with a losing record is becoming a tradition. This year, three teams finished 8-9.
The Bucs’ downfall was a perfect storm of bad luck and questionable decisions:
- The Injury Bug: It wasn't just a few bruises. Key playmakers on offense missed huge chunks of time. When you're leaning on Baker Mayfield to be a hero, he needs his weapons.
- December Meltdown: Going winless in December is a death sentence. The Bucs had a four-game losing streak that drained all the momentum they built in September.
- The Coaching Question: Todd Bowles is now 35-33 in the regular season over four years. While he's won three division titles, missing the playoffs with this roster has people asking if he's the guy to lead the "post-reign" era.
It's weirdly poetic that the Saints, who have been the Bucs' biggest thorn for years, were actually the ones who could have saved them. Tampa needed a Saints win over the Falcons in Week 18 to clinch. Instead, New Orleans rookie Tyler Shough threw a late interception, the Falcons won 19-17, and the Bucs were officially eliminated.
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The Baker Mayfield Contract Elephant
Now we get to the part that keeps General Manager Jason Licht up at night. Baker Mayfield is entering the final year of his three-year, $100 million deal in 2026.
Here is the kicker: his cap hit for 2026 is a massive $51.9 million.
That is an astronomical number for a quarterback who just led a team to an 8-9 finish. Baker has been great for the culture, and he’s had some massive playoff moments in the past, but the Bucs are in a tight spot. They already restructured his deal to save space last year, which basically pushed the "debt" into 2026.
If they want to keep him long-term and lower that cap hit, they’re going to have to shell out even more guaranteed money. But do you commit $45 million-plus a year to a 31-year-old Baker when the rest of the division is getting younger?
The New Rivals on the Block
While Tampa was sliding, the rest of the tampa bay bucs division was growing up.
The Panthers are no longer the laughingstock of the league. Dave Canales has turned them into a scrappy, dangerous unit. In Atlanta, despite firing Raheem Morris recently, they have Bijan Robinson, who just put up a historic 2,298 yards from scrimmage. That’s 12th all-time in NFL history.
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And don't sleep on the Saints. They might have finished 6-11, but Tyler Shough looks like a legitimate franchise QB. He stepped in as a rookie and won five of his last nine starts. The NFC South isn't just a "weak" division anymore; it's becoming a "young and hungry" one.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Division
There’s this narrative that the Bucs are "rebuilding." I don't buy it. You don't rebuild when you have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Tristan Wirfs. You "retool."
The defense still has stars at every level. Vita Vea is still a human wrecking ball. The problem hasn't been talent; it's been consistency and health. People look at the 8-9 record and assume the window has slammed shut. In reality, the Bucs were five points away from being 10-7. They won five games this year decided by three points or fewer. They also lost a bunch of close ones.
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Success in the South is about winning the "ugly" games. This year, the Bucs just didn't win enough of them.
Immediate Next Steps for the Bucs
- Resolve the Todd Bowles Situation: The front office needs to decide if a 35-33 record is enough. Stability is great, but not if it leads to stagnation.
- Fix the Offensive Line Depth: Injuries exposed a lack of quality backups. If Tristan Wirfs isn't 100%, the whole offense stalls.
- Baker’s Extension: You can't go into 2026 with a $51 million cap hit for one player. Either extend him to spread the cost or start looking at the draft.
- Youth Movement at Receiver: Mike Evans is a legend, but he isn't getting younger. Integrating guys like Emeka Egbuka more heavily is a must.
The tampa bay bucs division reign might be over for now, but in the NFC South, the weather changes fast. One good draft and a healthy roster, and the Bucs could be right back on top by next January. For now, they’ll have to watch the Panthers represent the South in the playoffs—a bitter pill for a team that’s used to being the ones doing the celebrating.