Honestly, if you've been watching the ticker for Target lately, you know it’s been a wild ride. Target stock price today sits at $111.28 as of the market close on January 16, 2026. That’s a tiny nudge up—about 0.11%—from where it started the day. But looking at that one number is like trying to understand a 500-page novel by reading a single sticky note on the cover.
The "Tar-zhay" magic is facing a bit of a reality check. We're seeing a stock that is currently up over 10% just in the first two weeks of 2026, yet it’s still trading way below its 52-week high of $145.08. Investors are basically playing a massive game of tug-of-war. On one side, you have the "deep value" crowd who thinks the stock is a steal at these prices. On the other, you have folks worried about the "discretionary recession" that has been eating away at retail since late 2024.
The Messy Reality of the Target Stock Price Today
What's actually moving the needle right now? It isn't just one thing. It's a combination of a CEO exit, shifting shopper habits, and some pretty intense technical levels. Brian Cornell, the guy who basically saved Target over the last decade, is handing over the keys to Michael Fiddelke on February 1.
Markets hate uncertainty.
Even though Fiddelke is a veteran, a leadership change in the middle of a "discretionary fatigue" cycle makes people nervous. Shoppers are still buying milk and laundry detergent, but they aren't grabbing that $30 decorative throw pillow or the extra pair of jeans like they used to.
Recent Q3 2025 data showed that while Target beat earnings expectations with an adjusted EPS of $1.78, their revenue actually missed the mark at $25.27 billion. This tells a specific story: Target is getting better at managing its own costs and inventory, but it can’t force people to spend money they don't have.
Why Analysts Are All Over the Map
If you ask five different Wall Street analysts where TGT is going, you’ll get six different answers. It's kind of a mess.
- The Bulls (like Morgan Stanley) recently raised their price targets toward $125.
- The Bears (looking at you, Wolfe Research) are sticking to "Sell" ratings with targets as low as $81.
- The "Wait and See" crowd—which is most of them—has a consensus price target sitting around $101 to $103.
Wait. If the target stock price today is $111.28, and the consensus target is $103, does that mean it’s overvalued? Not necessarily. Stock targets are often "trailing" indicators. Analysts are often slow to update their models until after the next earnings call.
The Ulta Factor and the Beauty Pivot
One huge detail people keep glossing over is the "Ulta Exit." Target's partnership with Ulta Beauty is set to wind down by August 2026. This is a bigger deal than it sounds. Those Ulta mini-shops inside Target were huge foot-traffic drivers.
To combat this, Target is launching 45 of its own internal beauty brands. It's a bold move. It’s also a risky one. Building brand loyalty from scratch is way harder than just riding the coattails of an established giant like Ulta. If these house brands flop, the store traffic—and the stock—could take a hit.
The Technical "Bounce"
From a technical standpoint, the stock is actually looking kinda healthy for the first time in months. It’s currently trading above both its 50-day ($94.70) and 200-day ($94.44) moving averages. In trader-speak, that’s a "golden cross" territory setup. It suggests that the downward momentum of 2025 might finally be breaking.
But let's be real. Technicals don't matter if the macro economy goes sideways. J.P. Morgan is currently forecasting a 35% chance of a U.S. recession in 2026. If that happens, the target stock price today will look like a distant memory of "the good old days."
Is the Dividend Still Safe?
For a lot of investors, the only reason they hold TGT is the dividend. Right now, the yield is hovering around 4.1%. That is significantly higher than what you’ll get from Walmart or Costco.
Target is a "Dividend King," meaning they've raised that payout for over 50 years straight. They aren't going to break that streak unless things get truly catastrophic. In 2025, they paid out over $500 million in dividends in a single quarter. They are clearly prioritizing shareholders, even as sales growth slows down.
The Inventory Problem (and Solution)
Inventory "shrink"—a fancy word for theft and administrative errors—hit Target hard in 2024. They’ve started locking up more items. You've probably seen it: the razors, the baby formula, sometimes even the underwear is behind glass now.
It's annoying for shoppers. It leads to "walk-offs" where people just give up and leave. But, the data shows it's working for the bottom line. Gross margins in late 2025 stayed steady at 28.2%, partly because they finally got a handle on the disappearing merchandise.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re looking at the target stock price today and wondering if you should jump in, here is the breakdown of what actually matters for the next few months:
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- Watch the CEO Transition: February 1st is the date. Watch for Fiddelke’s first public comments as CEO. If he pivots toward more aggressive discounting to win back market share from Walmart, expect margins to drop.
- Monitor the 50-Day Moving Average: As long as the price stays above $95, the technical uptrend is alive. If it dips below that, the "value trap" alarm bells should start ringing.
- The "Discretionary" Pivot: Keep an eye on inflation data. Target needs the "middle class" to feel wealthy again. When people start buying home decor and clothing again, Target wins. Until then, they are just a grocery store with better lighting.
- Don't Ignore the P/E Ratio: At a forward P/E of roughly 14x, Target is trading at a massive discount compared to the broader retail industry (which averages over 30x). It’s cheap. The question is whether it's cheap for a reason.
The stock is at a major crossroads. It has successfully clawed its way back from the sub-$90 lows of late 2025, but it lacks a clear "growth engine" for 2026. The digital side is doing okay—digital sales grew 2.4% recently—but it isn't the explosive growth we saw during the pandemic. For now, it’s a story of stabilization.
If you're holding, the dividend is your cushion. If you're looking to buy, you’re essentially betting that the new leadership can figure out how to make "cheap chic" cool again in a world where everyone is obsessed with finding the absolute lowest price at Walmart.
The next big test will be the Q4 2025 earnings report, likely coming in early March 2026. That will show us if the holiday season was a "Save our Ship" moment or just another slow quarter. Keep your eyes on the $115 resistance level; if it breaks that, we might actually see a run toward $130.