You’re staring at a flight deal to Baja, but there’s that one nagging question: what's the temperature in cabo san lucas right now, and will I actually be able to swim? Honestly, most people just assume it’s a tropical sauna year-round. It’s not. Cabo is actually an arid desert that happens to collide with two different bodies of water.
That means the air is dry, the nights can get surprisingly crisp, and the ocean temperature is a total wild card depending on which side of the "Arch" you’re standing on.
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Right now, if you were to step off a plane today, Thursday, January 15, 2026, you'd be greeted by a very comfortable 76°F. It’s currently cloudy with a light 4 mph breeze coming off the southwest. Basically, it's perfect "light sweater" weather for the morning and "shorts and a tee" for the afternoon.
The Reality of the Temperature in Cabo San Lucas
Cabo doesn't do "seasons" like the rest of the world. It does "dry and pleasant" vs. "hot and humid."
If you're looking for that sweet spot where you aren't sweating through your shirt, aim for late winter or spring. In January, the high usually hits around 77°F, while the lows can dip to 68°F at night. You'll want a jacket if you’re doing a sunset cruise. Trust me, that Pacific breeze is no joke when the sun goes down.
Current 10-Day Outlook (January 2026)
| Day | High | Low | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Jan 15 | 77°F | 68°F | Mostly sunny |
| Fri, Jan 16 | 77°F | 70°F | Partly sunny |
| Sat, Jan 17 | 77°F | 71°F | Mostly cloudy |
| Sun, Jan 18 | 78°F | 72°F | Partly sunny |
| Mon, Jan 19 | 77°F | 72°F | Cloudy |
| Tue, Jan 20 | 77°F | 69°F | Cloudy |
| Wed, Jan 21 | 77°F | 68°F | Mostly cloudy |
| Thu, Jan 22 | 77°F | 68°F | Mostly cloudy |
| Fri, Jan 23 | 77°F | 67°F | Cloudy |
| Sat, Jan 24 | 76°F | 67°F | Partly sunny |
As you can see, the consistency is wild. It's basically a flat line of 77-degree days for the next week.
Why the Water Temperature Matters More Than the Air
Here is the part most travelers mess up. They see 85-degree air temps in May and assume the water is like a bathtub. Wrong.
The Pacific side of Cabo is notoriously cold because of deep-sea currents. Even when the temperature in cabo san lucas is pushing 90°F in June, the ocean might still be a bracing 72°F.
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If you want "bathwater" vibes, you have to wait until August or September. That’s when the sea temperature hits its peak at about 83°F to 84°F. This is the prime time for snorkeling at Santa Maria or Chileno Bay without needing a wetsuit.
But there’s a catch.
August and September are also the heart of hurricane season. It gets humid. Like, "I need a third shower today" humid. While actual landfalls are rare—the last massive one was Hurricane Odile in 2014—the tropical storms can bring heavy rain and swell that shuts down the marinas.
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Month-by-Month Temperature Cheat Sheet
- January - March: Highs of 77°F–81°F. Best for whale watching (the humpbacks love this cool water). Bring a hoodie.
- April - June: Highs of 83°F–90°F. The "perfect" window. Dry air, clear skies, and fewer crowds than Spring Break.
- July - September: Highs of 91°F–96°F. Hot, humid, and buggy. Great for deals, but keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center.
- October - December: Highs of 80°F–90°F. The "High Season" kick-off. The water is still warm from summer, but the air starts to cool down.
Actionable Tips for Your Trip
Stop packing like you're going to Cancun. Cabo is different.
First, check the wind. A 10 mph wind in the desert feels fine, but on a boat near Land's End, it feels ten degrees colder. Second, look at the humidity. If it’s over 70%, that 90°F is going to feel like 105°F.
What you should do next:
If you're booking for the next few weeks, pack layers. You'll want a windbreaker for the boat and a medium-weight sweater for dinner. If you're planning a summer trip, make sure your resort has a "hurricane guarantee" and look for properties with high-quality AC—you're going to need it.
Honestly, Cabo is one of the few places where the weather is rarely "bad," it's just a matter of whether you're prepared for the desert-meets-ocean shift. Keep an eye on the daily highs, but always check those nighttime lows before you zip your suitcase.