Tesla stock is a weird beast. Honestly, if you've been watching the tickers lately, you know it feels like a rollercoaster that someone forgot to turn off. Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, the markets are actually closed, but everyone is still talking about what happened on Friday and what it means for the week ahead.
Basically, Tesla (TSLA) ended the last trading session at $437.50. That’s a small drop—about 0.24%—from the day before. It doesn't sound like much, but when you look at the bigger picture, the stock has been sliding a bit, down nearly 10% over the last month.
People are getting twitchy. You've got the "Tesla is a car company" crowd yelling that it’s overvalued, and the "Tesla is an AI company" crowd insisting we’re just early.
What Really Happened With Tesla Stock Recently
Friday was sort of a microcosm of the current Tesla sentiment. The stock opened at $439.50 and briefly poked its head up to a high of $447.25. It looked like it might have some legs, but then the momentum just evaporated. By the time the closing bell rang, it had settled near its daily low of $435.26.
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This kind of "choppy" behavior is exactly what we’ve seen all throughout January 2026. After hitting a high near $498 back in late 2025, the stock has been struggling to find a solid floor. Why? Because the market is waiting for the big one: the Q4 2025 earnings report coming up on January 28, 2026.
The Delivery Numbers Everyone is Chewing On
Back on January 2nd, Tesla dropped its delivery data, and it was a mixed bag. They delivered over 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Now, that sounds like a lot of cars—and it is—but the total for the year was around 1.64 million. That’s actually a 16% drop year-over-year.
For a company that used to grow at 50% like clockwork, a double-digit decline is a tough pill for investors to swallow.
- Production: Over 434,000 vehicles in Q4.
- Deliveries: Over 418,000 vehicles in Q4.
- Energy Storage: 14.2 GWh deployed (this was actually a record).
That energy storage piece is the "secret sauce" that bulls like Dan Ives from Wedbush keep pointing to. While car sales are hitting a bit of a wall thanks to insane competition from BYD and others, the battery side of the business is quietly exploding.
Tesla Stock: What Most People Get Wrong
Most people look at the P/E ratio (which is currently sitting at a staggering 292) and think it’s a bubble waiting to pop. And honestly, looking at it purely as a car company, they might be right. Simply Wall St recently ran a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis suggesting the intrinsic value is closer to $170.
But here’s the thing: nobody buys Tesla because they want to own a traditional car company.
You’re betting on Optimus (the robot), FSD (Full Self-Driving), and the Robotaxi network. If those work, the current price is a steal. If they don't? Well, then the bears like Gordon Johnson—who has a price target of about $25—start looking a lot more prophetic.
The Competition is Getting Real
It’s not 2020 anymore. Back then, if you wanted a cool EV, you bought a Tesla. Period. Today, BYD delivered over 2.25 million vehicles in 2025. They’ve officially passed Tesla in global EV volume. Throw in NIO, XPeng, and even the legacy makers finally getting their act together, and Tesla’s "moat" looks a little more like a puddle in some regions.
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Even so, the brand loyalty is still there. Tesla recently picked up a string of loyalty awards, showing that once people get into the ecosystem, they rarely leave.
The Technical Setup for Next Week
If you're a trader, the charts are looking a bit messy. The stock is currently trading below its 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages. That usually means the short-term trend is "down."
However, there’s some serious support sitting around the $415 to $421 range. If it breaks below $415, we could see a quick trip down to the $390s. On the flip side, if the earnings call on the 28th is even slightly better than expected, $450 is the first big hurdle it needs to clear to get back to those December highs.
What to Watch on January 28
When Elon Musk gets on that call, he’s probably going to spend 10% of the time on cars and 90% on AI. You've gotta listen for:
- FSD Licensing: Are any other car companies actually going to pay for it?
- Next-Gen Platform: We need news on the "Model 2" or whatever the cheaper $25k car is called.
- Margins: Are they still cutting prices to move metal, or have they finally stabilized?
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this?
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First, don't FOMO in just because it's "cheaper" than it was last month. The stock is extremely volatile right now, and the earnings report in ten days is going to be a massive "binary event"—meaning the stock is either going to moon or crater. There won't be much middle ground.
If you're a long-term believer, you might look at these dips as a way to "dollar-cost average." Basically, you buy a little now, a little later, and smooth out the price. If you’re a swing trader, you’re probably waiting for a confirmed bounce off that $415 support level before putting real money to work.
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield too. Tesla is a "growth stock," and when interest rates or yields move up, these high-multiple stocks usually get hammered. It's a weird correlation, but it's been the playbook for the last few years.
Next Steps:
- Check the pre-market action on Monday morning around 4:00 AM EST to see how the overseas markets are reacting to the weekend news.
- Mark January 28 on your calendar for the Q4 results.
- Review your position size; Tesla is not a stock you want to be "all-in" on given its 1.83 beta (which basically means it moves nearly twice as much as the rest of the market).