In the summer of 2015, baseball fans witnessed something that basically defied physics. If you look back at the 2015 NL Cy Young race, you aren't just looking at a list of stats; you're looking at one of the most contentious, high-stakes debates in the history of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). It was a three-headed monster. Jake Arrieta. Zack Greinke. Clayton Kershaw. Any other year, any of them wins it unanimously. But in 2015? It turned into a statistical cage match that people are still arguing about in bars from Wrigleyville to Echo Park.
Honestly, the whole thing felt like a glitch in the Matrix.
The Historic Three-Way Deadlock
We don't get seasons like this often. Usually, a clear frontrunner emerges by August. Not this time. By the time the final pitch was thrown, the voters were staring at three of the greatest individual pitching seasons of the modern era, all happening simultaneously in the National League. You had Zack Greinke putting up a 1.66 ERA, the lowest mark since Greg Maddux was turning hitters into statues in the 90s. Then you had Clayton Kershaw, who was arguably at the absolute peak of his powers, becoming the first pitcher since 2002 to punch out 300 batters in a single season.
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And then there was Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta’s 2015 campaign with the Chicago Cubs is the stuff of legend, mostly because of how it ended. He didn't just pitch well; he became an atmospheric event. His second half was a scorched-earth policy against the rest of the league. When the votes finally came in, Arrieta took home the hardware with 169 points, narrowly edging out Greinke’s 147. Kershaw, despite a season that would have won him the Cy Young in almost any other year of the 21st century, finished a distant third. It felt weird then. It feels even weirder now when you look at the advanced metrics.
Jake Arrieta’s Second Half Was Pure Insanity
Let’s talk about that second half. It’s the single biggest reason he won the 2015 NL Cy Young. After the All-Star break, Arrieta posted a 0.75 ERA. Read that again. 0.75. In 15 starts, he allowed just nine earned runs. He was basically a brick wall that threw 95-mph sinkers with late life that made professional hitters look like they were swinging garden hoses.
He went 12-1 in that stretch.
The peak of this run was a no-hitter against the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball in late August. That game felt like a coronation. He struck out 12. He looked invincible. For many voters, that was the moment the narrative shifted. In the eyes of the BBWAA, the "best" pitcher isn't always the one with the best season-long spreadsheet; it's the one who is most dominant when the lights are brightest and the playoff race is heating up. Arrieta carried the Cubs to 97 wins. Without him, that young Chicago team might have sputtered. With him, they felt like a juggernaut.
The Case for Zack Greinke: The Efficiency King
If you’re a fan of "old school" stats, Greinke was your guy. His 1.66 ERA for the Dodgers was a masterpiece of sequencing and control. He had a scoreless streak of 45.2 innings. Think about that for a second. That is five straight starts where nobody touched home plate.
He was surgical.
Greinke’s WHIP was a tiny 0.84. He led the league in Winning Percentage (.864) and ERA+. For the analytical crowd, his 222 ERA+ meant he was 122% better than the average pitcher that year. That’s a staggering number. Why did he lose? Some say it’s because he shared a rotation with Kershaw, which somehow diluted his "value." Others argue that Arrieta’s late-season dominance simply stayed fresher in the minds of the voters. Greinke was consistently great; Arrieta was historically, impossibly great for three months. In the world of sports awards, "climax" often beats "consistency."
Clayton Kershaw’s Forgotten Masterpiece
It’s almost a crime that Kershaw finished third in the 2015 NL Cy Young voting. If you look at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which tries to strip away luck and defense to see how a pitcher actually performed, Kershaw was the clear leader.
- Kershaw FIP: 1.99
- Arrieta FIP: 2.35
- Greinke FIP: 2.76
Kershaw led the league in innings pitched (232.2) and led the majors with 301 strikeouts. By many modern Sabermetric accounts, he was actually the most valuable pitcher in the league. He had a bWAR of 7.5 and an fWAR of 8.6. Usually, when a guy leads the league in K's, innings, and FIP, you hand him the trophy and tell everyone else to try again next year. But 2015 wasn't a "usual" year. Kershaw’s "struggles" early in the season—he had a 3.86 ERA in May—cost him the narrative momentum he needed to overcome the Arrieta hype train.
The Great Sinker vs. The Great Curveball
The 2015 season was a clash of styles. Arrieta was the "power sinker" guy. He threw a "slutter"—a hybrid slider/cutter—that broke at speeds most pitchers can’t reach. It was a violent, physical brand of pitching. Greinke was the tactician. He would pull the string on a 70-mph curveball then dot a 92-mph fastball on the black. Kershaw was the traditionalist’s dream, a lefty with a high-arm slot and a 12-6 curveball that fell off a table.
Watching these three compete for the same award was like watching three different grandmasters play chess. One used a hammer, one used a scalpel, and one used a broadsword.
The debate often boiled down to: What do you value?
Do you value the sheer volume of strikeouts and innings (Kershaw)?
Do you value the lowest possible ERA and efficiency (Greinke)?
Or do you value the "unhittable" peak and the emotional weight of a postseason push (Arrieta)?
Why the 2015 Vote Changed Baseball Writing
This specific race acted as a catalyst for how we talk about pitching today. Before 2015, the "Win" was still a pretty big deal. Arrieta had 22 wins. Greinke had 19. Kershaw had 16. If Kershaw had won 20 games, he might have finished higher. But as the "Quality Start" and "FIP" became more mainstream, the 2015 results started to look like a transitional fossil.
It was one of the last years where the "eye test" and "narrative" truly trumped the deep-level analytics. If the 2015 vote happened in 2026, Kershaw’s 300 strikeouts and league-leading FIP might have carried more weight. Or Greinke’s historic ERA might have been protected by a more sophisticated understanding of park factors.
But Arrieta’s 2015 wasn't a fluke. People like to say he "came out of nowhere" after being a failed prospect in Baltimore. That’s not quite true. He had been building toward this. He revamped his mechanics, started standing on the far third-base side of the rubber, and created an angle that was terrifying for right-handed hitters. His 2015 NL Cy Young wasn't just a hot streak; it was the result of a total mechanical overhaul that changed the trajectory of his life.
The Legacy of the Three-Way Race
When we look back at the 2015 season, we see a snapshot of a league in flux. This was the year the Cubs finally signaled to the world that they were real contenders. It was the peak of the Dodgers' "spend whatever it takes" era of starting pitching.
Arrieta's win also solidified his place in Chicago sports history. You can't tell the story of the 2016 World Series without the 2015 Cy Young. That season gave Arrieta the confidence—and the "aura"—that allowed him to dominate in the Fall Classic a year later.
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Actionable Insights for Baseball History Buffs
If you're looking to dive deeper into the nuances of this specific era, or if you're a fantasy baseball player trying to understand how peaks and valleys work, here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Scrutinize the Splits: Don't just look at season totals. Arrieta’s win was built on a 0.75 second-half ERA. In short-term voting cycles, how you finish matters more than how you start.
- The FIP vs. ERA Divide: 2015 is the perfect case study for why FIP matters. Greinke and Arrieta both outperformed their FIP significantly, which usually suggests a mix of elite defense and a bit of luck. Kershaw was the only one whose "true" performance matched his peripheral numbers.
- Contextualize the Environment: 2015 was a pitcher's year. The league average ERA was lower than it is today. When you see a 1.66 ERA, remember the offensive environment of the time.
- Watch the Mechanics: If you want to see what "peak" pitching looks like, go to YouTube and watch Arrieta’s August 30, 2015, no-hitter. Notice his cross-fire delivery. It’s a masterclass in deception that rarely gets replicated because it's so hard on the body.
The 2015 NL Cy Young wasn't a robbery, even though fans in Los Angeles might tell you otherwise. It was a choice between three different versions of perfection. Arrieta won because he captured the imagination of the baseball world at exactly the right moment. He was the "it" guy when the ballots were mailed out, and in a race this close, that's often all it takes.
Next time you hear someone complain about modern analytics or "opener" strategies, remind them of 2015. Remind them of the year when three guys threw over 220 innings each, dominated the league in completely different ways, and left the voters with a headache that hasn't quite gone away. It was the last great stand of the workhorse ace. And man, it was something to see.