So, the Mitch Marner trade actually happened. It still feels surreal to see him in a Vegas Golden Knights jersey, doesn't it? For years, we argued about the "Core Four" and whether they could ever get over the hump, and now that the band has officially broken up, the vibes in Toronto are... different. Kinda tense, kinda hopeful, and mostly just confusing.
If you're looking for a Toronto Maple Leafs prediction that actually accounts for the chaos of this 2025-26 season, you have to look past the box scores. We aren't just talking about a lineup change. We are talking about a fundamental shift in how this team breathes.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the Leafs are sitting at 24-16-8. That’s 56 points in 48 games. It’s fine. It’s safe. But "safe" doesn’t win Cups in the Atlantic Division, especially when you're looking up at a rejuvenated Detroit Red Wings squad and the ever-annoying Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Berube Factor and the Identity Crisis
Craig Berube was brought in to be the "Chief"—the guy who would finally demand accountability. And honestly, you can see it. The soft, east-west "dipsy-doodle" hockey that used to drive fans crazy is mostly gone. Berube wants a north-south game. He wants guys finishing checks.
But here’s the problem: you can’t turn a Ferrari into a Ford F-150 overnight.
The team is struggling to find its offensive rhythm without Marner’s elite playmaking. Nicolas Roy, who came back in that Vegas trade, is a solid, big-bodied center. He’s great for the PK. He’s a "coach's player." But he isn't going to thread a cross-seam pass to Auston Matthews through three defenders.
📖 Related: The 2015 College Football Playoff: Why That Season Still Feels So Chaotic
What the Numbers Actually Say
- Auston Matthews: Surpassed Mats Sundin as the franchise's leading goal scorer recently. He’s got 23 goals in 41 games. Great? Yes. On pace for 60? No.
- William Nylander: He’s been the engine. 48 points in 37 games is elite, but he’s currently dealing with a nagging lower-body injury that has him out of the lineup.
- The Defense: Jake McCabe is a ridiculous +20. That tells you everything about the "Berube Style." They are harder to play against, but they are also scoring less.
The Goaltending Rollercoaster
You can't talk about a Toronto Maple Leafs prediction without mentioning the crease. It’s the law. Joseph Woll has been the guy lately, riding a three-game winning streak with a .958 save percentage in that span. He looks like the franchise savior we’ve been promised for three years.
But then there's Anthony Stolarz.
He’s been dealing with a "nerve issue" and hasn’t played since mid-November. The stats before he went down weren't pretty (a 3.51 GAA), and there is a lot of chatter about whether the Leafs need to move an asset for a veteran backup before the deadline. Dennis Hildeby has been filling in, but asking a prospect to carry the load while Woll manages his own injury history is a risky bet.
👉 See also: Tour de France Stage 9: Why This Mid-Mountain Brawl Changes Everything
Predictions for the 2026 Trade Deadline
Brad Treliving is in a corner. The blue line is thin. Rumors are swirling around guys like Rasmus Andersson in Calgary. Treliving knows him well from his Flames days, but the asking price is reportedly "massive."
The Leafs don't have many picks left. They don't have a ton of blue-chip prospects they are willing to part with.
My Bold Prediction: The Leafs won't land the big fish. They’ll grab a mid-tier defenseman—someone like a Luke Schenn type (again)—to bolster the third pair. They are betting on internal growth from Matthew Knies, who has 31 goals in some projections but needs to be more consistent in the "dirty areas" Berube loves.
Where do they finish?
Let's be real. The Atlantic is a meat grinder. The Montreal Canadiens are actually good now. The Sabres are hanging around.
🔗 Read more: What Channel Is the Dallas Game On Today: Watching the Mavs and Cowboys
Toronto will make the playoffs. They have too much high-end talent not to. But they are likely looking at a Wild Card spot or a 3rd-place finish in the Atlantic. That means another first-round date with someone like Florida or Tampa.
Without Marner, the power play has dropped to middle-of-the-pack. If they don't fix that by April, it's the same old story. Different coach, different roster construction, same early exit.
Next Steps for Leafs Fans:
- Monitor the Nylander Injury: If he isn't 100% by the Olympic break, the Leafs' offensive depth evaporates. Watch the injury reports for his return against Minnesota or shortly after.
- Watch the "Trade Barometer": Keep an eye on the asking price for right-shot defensemen. If Treliving doesn't move before the deadline on March 6th, this defensive core might not survive a seven-game series.
- Check Joseph Woll's Workload: The kid is playing great, but he has never carried a true starter's load for a full season. If his starts-per-week ratio climbs too high, expect a fatigue-related slump in late February.