If you woke up this morning and checked your portfolio, you probably noticed a lot of green. Honestly, the Toronto stock market open today feels like it's operating in a completely different universe than it was just a few years ago. We are seeing the S&P/TSX Composite Index hovering around the 33,040 mark, which is basically rarified air.
It’s a Sunday, so the physical floor at 120 Adelaide St West is quiet, but the ripples from Friday’s close are still the talk of Bay Street. We ended the week up about 1.3%. That doesn't sound like a massive jump, but when you're already at record highs, every fraction of a percentage point feels like a victory lap.
What Actually Moved the Needle?
You've probably heard people say that Canada is just "three banks and an oil well" in a trench coat. While that’s a bit of an exaggeration, Friday’s action sort of proved why that reputation exists. The energy sector really put the team on its back. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq in New York was struggling to find its footing, our local energy giants like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Suncor (SU) were busy gaining nearly 2%.
Why? It's a mix of geopolitical relief and some very specific trade news. The "Iran-US" tension that had everyone biting their nails seems to be cooling off, and strangely enough, that’s stabilizing crude prices around $59.44. But the real kicker—and the thing most people are missing—is the "Carney-China" effect.
Prime Minister Mark Carney (yes, the former central banker is leading the charge now) just finished talks with a Chinese delegation. Basically, it looks like we might get some tariff relief on electric vehicles and canola. For a market that's been squeezed by trade frictions with the US, this is like a shot of adrenaline.
The Winners and Losers You Need to Know
It wasn't all sunshine and roses, though. If you're holding tech or copper, Friday was a bit of a reality check.
- MDA Space Ltd (MDA): These guys are absolutely flying. They closed up over 14% after some serious momentum in the space tech sector.
- The Energy Heavyweights: Suncor and Imperial Oil are essentially the bedrock of the current rally.
- Shopify (SHOP): Down about 1.2%. It seems like investors are just taking profits after a massive run-up.
- The Copper Miners: Teck Resources and First Quantum took a hit, falling between 1% and 4%. Copper is usually the "doctor" of the economy, so seeing it stumble while the rest of the market rises is... weird.
Interest Rates: The Elephant in the Room
Everyone is asking the same thing: when is the Bank of Canada (BoC) going to finally cut rates? We’re sitting at a 2.25% key lending rate. Tomorrow, we get the December inflation data. Most experts, including Philip Petursson over at IG Wealth Management, think inflation will hold steady at 2.2%.
Here’s the thing: even if inflation is "fine," the BoC is likely to hold steady at their meeting later this month. They aren't in a rush. They see the TSX hitting record highs and a labor market that is "stable enough," so they don't feel the pressure to jump the gun.
Why the Toronto Stock Market Open Today Matters for Your RRSP
If you’re looking at your retirement savings, the Toronto stock market open today reflects a very specific Canadian resilience. We have a heavy weighting in materials and financials. In a world where AI tech volatility is making everyone's head spin, those "boring" Canadian banks and gold mines are acting as a massive hedge.
🔗 Read more: Are the Banks Open on December 26: The Reality for 2025 and Beyond
We’re seeing a "jobless profit boom." Companies are getting way more productive without necessarily hiring more people. It’s great for shareholders, but it’s a bit of a weird vibe for the actual economy.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
So, what do you actually do with this information? Don't just sit there and watch the tickers.
- Watch the Inflation Print: When Statistics Canada drops the CPI numbers on Monday morning, look past the "headline" number. Check the core inflation. If that stays high, the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative is going to stay stuck in place, which might finally cool off the bank stocks.
- Energy Re-balancing: If you're heavy on energy, it might be time to look at the "Carney-China" trade. Canola-related stocks and companies tied to the EV supply chain are likely to see some tailwinds if that China deal actually solidifies.
- Don't Fear the Profit Taking: Seeing Shopify or Constellation Software dip 2% isn't a disaster. It’s a healthy part of a bull market. If everyone is "all-in," there's nowhere to go but down. These little dips are actually what keep the rally sustainable.
The TSX is proving that it’s more than just a satellite of the New York markets. While the S&P 500 and Dow are looking a bit tired at their current valuations, the Canadian market is entering 2026 with a lot of "old school" momentum. Keep an eye on the open tomorrow morning at 9:30 AM ET—it's going to be a fascinating start to the week.