It's been a rough ride. Honestly, if you look at the latest numbers coming out of Gallup and Emerson, the honeymoon phase for Donald Trump’s second term didn't just end—it hit a wall.
By December 2025, his approval rating had cratered to 36%. That is a staggering drop from the 47% he enjoyed right around Inauguration Day. You’ve probably seen the headlines, but the "why" behind the slide is a mix of high prices, healthcare scares, and some pretty controversial moves abroad.
People are feeling the pinch. Basically, the same economic frustration that helped him win in 2024 is now being aimed directly at him. It’s a classic case of "be careful what you promise," because voters have a very short memory when their grocery bills don't go down.
The Economy is the Anchor
For a long time, the economy was Trump's strongest suit. Not anymore.
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The trump approval rating issues we’re seeing right now are largely tied to the fact that inflation hasn't magically disappeared. According to recent PBS News/NPR/Marist polling, 57% of Americans now disapprove of his economic handling. That’s his worst score ever on the subject.
It’s kinda wild when you think about it. During the campaign, he promised to slash prices on "day one." But here we are in early 2026, and a Navigator Research report shows that 14% of people who actually voted for him now say they regret it. Their main reason? The cost of living.
- Food prices: They just keep climbing, and for the average family, that's the only metric that matters.
- Tariffs: While they sound good in a speech, 60% of people in a Fox News survey said they actually disapprove of the new tariffs because they’re worried about prices going up even more.
- The Deficit: Despite talk of cutting waste, the "big beautiful bill" of tax cuts is projected to add trillions to the national debt.
Healthcare and the "Affordability Gap"
There is a massive disconnect between what the White House is focusing on and what people actually care about.
While the administration has spent a huge amount of energy on immigration and border enforcement, the public is staring down a healthcare crisis. As of January 2026, the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are expiring.
This isn't just a policy tweak. It means monthly premiums for about 22 million people are expected to nearly double.
Gallup recently found that Trump’s approval on healthcare policy is sitting at a dismal 30%. Even among Republicans, support for his healthcare moves has dropped from 68% down to 59% in just a few months. When people realize they might lose their insurance or pay twice as much for it, they stop caring about the latest political firestorm and start looking at the person in charge.
Foreign Adventures: Venezuela and Beyond
Then there's the international stuff. On January 3, 2026, the U.S. launched an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Initially, you’d think a military victory would give a president a "rally 'round the flag" boost. But the reaction has been... mixed, to put it lightly. An Economist/YouGov poll showed that while his approval ticked up slightly with men, it dropped by 5 points with women.
People are worried about a "quagmire." There’s a real fear that we’re getting sucked into another endless war, which is exactly what Trump promised to avoid. Plus, his suggestion that taxpayers might foot the bill to help oil companies rebuild Venezuela’s infrastructure hasn't sat well with the "America First" crowd.
The Independent Slide
If you want to know if a president is in real trouble, look at the Independents.
In early 2025, about 46% of Independents were willing to give Trump a chance. By the end of the year, that number had fallen to 25%. That is a 21-point drop. You can't win elections—or keep a mandate—with those kinds of numbers.
Young voters are also checking out. Among Trump voters under 35, approval has slipped from near-universal support to around 69%. They’re worried about the environment, the cost of housing, and a sense that the "MAGA" focus doesn't align with their daily struggles.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Polls
Some folks argue that the polls are "rigged" or just don't matter this far out from an election. Trump himself posted on Truth Social that his "real" rating is 64%.
But the data across multiple different pollsters—from the right-leaning Harvard/Harris to the more traditional Gallup—all show the same downward trend. This isn't a fluke; it's a pattern.
The issue isn't just that people dislike his personality. It’s that they feel his policies are hurting them personally. A Navigator Research study found that more people now say his policies have "hurt" them than "helped" them. That is a hard narrative to flip once it takes hold.
Actionable Insights for the Road Ahead
If you're trying to make sense of where this goes next, keep an eye on these specific indicators:
- The 2026 Midterms: If these trump approval rating issues persist into the summer, Republican candidates are going to start distancing themselves from the White House to save their own seats.
- Inflation Data: Watch the CPI (Consumer Price Index). If it doesn't show a significant drop by Q2 2026, expect the approval floor to drop even further.
- Healthcare Subsidies: If Congress doesn't find a way to extend those ACA subsidies, the backlash in late 2026 could be seismic.
- The "Vibecessions": Even if the GDP grows (it grew 4.3% in Q3 2025), if people feel like they're in a recession, they'll vote like they are. Perception is reality in politics.
Ultimately, the administration is betting that the economy will "boom" in late 2026. If it does, these numbers could bounce back. If it doesn't, 36% might not be the bottom.