Honestly, if you look at a trump approval rating state map right now, you aren't just looking at a political scoreboard. You're looking at a country that’s basically vibrating with tension. It’s January 2026. We’ve had a full year of the second term. And man, the honeymoon? It didn't just end; it fell off a cliff.
According to the latest aggregate data from RealClearPolling and Civiqs, Donald Trump is currently sitting at a national approval rating of roughly 43.8% to 44.1%. His disapproval? That’s hovering around 52.6% to 54%.
👉 See also: The Emmett Till Body Pics: Why the World Still Can’t Look Away
But the national number is a lie. Or at least, it’s a mask.
The real story is in the states. It’s in places like Georgia, where the map is showing a weirdly resilient +2 shift since last year, even as Florida and Pennsylvania start to bleed red. If you’re trying to figure out why your Twitter feed looks like a war zone, the state-by-state breakdown is the only thing that actually explains it.
The Red Wall is Showing Some Cracks
It’s easy to assume the "Deep Red" states are just immovable blocks of granite. They aren't.
Take Oklahoma. In January 2025, Trump was practically a deity there with a +34 net approval. Fast forward to now, and that’s dropped by 7 points. Still deep red? Yeah, obviously. But a 7-point slide in your heartland usually means the base is feeling the pinch of something—likely those tariffs everyone is screaming about.
Then you’ve got the "surprises."
- Alabama: Holding steady-ish at 54% approval.
- Utah: This one is wild. His popularity dropped by 10 points over the last year. It went from +21 to +11.
- West Virginia: Still the "Trumpest" of them all, but even there, the "Strongly Approve" category is getting nibbled away by "Somewhat Approve."
Why the "Blue Wall" Feels Like a Fortress Again
If you look at the trump approval rating state map for the Northeast or the West Coast, it’s basically a sea of deep indigo. In California and New York, the disapproval ratings are consistently north of 60%.
📖 Related: Big Muddy River Correctional Center: What Really Happens Inside
But that’s not what’s keeping the White House up at night.
It’s the Great Lakes. Michigan and Wisconsin are currently "underwater"—a fancy polling term for "more people hate what you're doing than like it." In Michigan, approval is sitting around 39% against a 56% disapproval. That is a massive problem for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms.
Harry Enten over at CNN recently pointed out that Trump started 2025 with a +6 net approval nationwide. He’s now about 12 points underwater. That 18-point swing is largely driven by Independents.
Independents in states like Arizona and Nevada have basically jumped ship. In January 2025, Independents were roughly split. Now? They are 43 points underwater.
The Issues Moving the Needle
People don't just wake up and decide to change their mind on a president for no reason.
The Morning Consult data suggests that the economy is the anchor dragging these state numbers down. While Trump has high marks on crime (about 43% approval) and immigration (37%—which is actually high relative to his average), the "affordability crisis" is killing him in the suburbs.
The Tariff Factor
Voters in the Midwest are feeling the retaliatory tariffs. We’re seeing a "split" in the data:
- Industrial workers: Often still supportive of the "America First" trade stance.
- Consumers: Seeing prices jump at the grocery store and the car dealership.
Lee Miringoff from the Marist Institute put it pretty bluntly: when people can't afford their weekly shop, they blame the guy in the Oval Office. Period.
Foreign Policy and Venezuela
The military strike in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, created a weird spike in the map. Interestingly, the Economist/YouGov poll found that while approval rose 4 points among men following the strike, it actually fell 5 points among women. It’s a gender gap that is widening into a canyon, especially in suburban Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
The Midterm Shadow
The reason everyone is obsessed with the trump approval rating state map right now is simple: the 2026 midterms are looming.
Republicans have a 53-47 lead in the Senate. But if these state numbers hold, seats in Maine (Susan Collins) and North Carolina (Thom Tillis) are looking incredibly shaky. Democrats are even eyeing Texas and Iowa, which sounds crazy until you see that Trump’s approval in Iowa has dipped to 43%.
🔗 Read more: Each States Electoral Votes Explained (Simply)
Is it a "Blue Wave"? Kinda looks like it’s building. But we’ve seen this movie before. In 2018, the map looked similar, and while the House flipped, the Senate didn't.
A Note on Poll Accuracy
Look, we have to be honest—polling hasn't been a perfect science lately. Many "Trump voters" are notoriously hard to reach. They don't answer the phone for pollsters. This means the trump approval rating state map you see on Civiqs or FiveThirtyEight might be undercounting his actual support by 2 or 3 points.
Even with that "hidden" support, being 12 points underwater is a tough place to be.
What to Watch Next
If you want to know which way the wind is blowing, don't look at the national average. It’s noise.
Keep your eyes on Georgia. It’s the only state where his numbers actually improved slightly last year. If that trend continues, it suggests a path for the GOP to hold the Sun Belt even if the Rust Belt falls apart.
Actionable Takeaways for Following the Map:
- Check the "Strongly Disapprove" trend: In the latest Rasmussen poll (usually a conservative-leaning poll), 43% "strongly" disapprove. That's a high floor for the opposition.
- Watch the Suburban "Donut": Look at the counties surrounding Philly, Atlanta, and Detroit. If those state maps show deepening blue in the suburbs, the state is gone.
- Monitor Inflation Data: There is a direct, almost 1:1 correlation between the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Trump's approval rating in the "swing" states.
The map is going to keep shifting. Between the Venezuela situation and the tariffs, the 2026 political landscape is basically being rewritten every Tuesday.
Next Step: You should head over to RealClearPolling or Civiqs and filter by "Independents" in your specific state. That’s the demographic that will actually decide if the 2026 map turns into a landslide or a stalemate.