Politics usually feels like a roller coaster, but Donald Trump's time in the Oval Office from 2017 to 2021 was more like a flatline on a very high, very divisive plateau. Honestly, if you look at the Trump first term approval rating, the most shocking thing isn't how low it went, but how little it moved. Most presidents see-saw based on a war or a good jobs report. Trump? He basically lived in a ten-point box for four years.
The Numbers Nobody Can Agree On
Let’s get the hard data out of the way. According to Gallup, the definitive gold standard for this stuff, Trump’s average approval rating for his entire first term was 41%.
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That’s low. Historically low. For context, the average for all U.S. presidents since the 1930s is somewhere around 52%. He’s actually the only president in the modern era to never hit a 50% approval rating in Gallup’s polling. Not once.
But here’s the kicker. While he never hit the "majority" milestone, his floor was made of reinforced concrete. He never bottomed out the way George W. Bush did (who hit 19% at his worst) or Richard Nixon. Trump’s lowest point in his first term was 34%, recorded in January 2021 right after the Capitol riots. His highest? 49%. He hit that mark several times, notably during his first impeachment trial in early 2020 and again at the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
It's weirdly consistent. Most of the time, he was stuck between 38% and 44%.
Why the Trump First Term Approval Rating Stayed So Static
Why didn't the numbers move? Basically, it’s the "Great Divide." We aren't just talking about people disagreeing over coffee; we’re talking about two different realities.
During that first term, the partisan gap was a yawning chasm. On average, there was an 81-point difference between how Republicans and Democrats viewed him. To put that in perspective:
- Republicans: Usually hovered around 87% to 91% approval. They loved the tax cuts, the judicial appointments, and the "America First" rhetoric.
- Democrats: Stayed in the single digits or low teens. For most of 2020, Democratic approval was sitting at about 7%.
- Independents: This is where the 2020 election was actually lost. Trump started with about 42% support from independents but ended his term with them down in the low 30s.
The "Rally 'Round the Flag" That Wasn't
Usually, when a crisis hits, Americans hug the president. Think of Bush after 9/11—his approval shot up to 90%. When COVID-19 first arrived in March 2020, Trump saw a tiny bump. He hit that 49% high. But it evaporated in weeks. Unlike his predecessors, he couldn't turn a national emergency into a sustained polling lead.
What Really Happened with the Economy?
If you ask a supporter why the Trump first term approval rating should have been higher, they’ll point to the "Trump Economic Boom." And they have a point—at least in the numbers. Before the pandemic shut everything down, unemployment was at 50-year lows.
Interestingly, Pew Research data showed that even people who disliked Trump’s personality often approved of his handling of the economy. In many polls, his "Economic Approval" was 10 to 15 points higher than his "Overall Approval." People liked their 401(k)s; they just didn't like the tweets. This "split-ticket" approval is rare. It suggests that if he had stayed off social media, those numbers might have actually cracked the 50% mark.
The 2020 Impact
You've probably wondered: if 41% or 44% of the country liked him, how did he get 74 million votes? This is the disconnect between "Approval Rating" and "Voter Choice."
Approval is a "yes/no" on performance. Voting is a "him or the other guy" choice. In 2020, many people who "disapproved" of Trump’s behavior still voted for him because they feared the alternative more. However, that 34% low in January 2021 shows that even the most loyal base has a breaking point.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for Today
If you’re tracking political trends or trying to predict the next election cycle, here is what the first-term data tells us:
- Ignore the "Honeymoon": Trump proved that a president doesn't need a honeymoon period to be effective in their agenda. He started low and stayed there, yet still passed massive legislation.
- Watch the Independents: Don't look at the base. The base is locked in. The only number that moves the needle on a president's success is the Independent approval rating. If it's below 40%, they are in trouble.
- Policy vs. Personality: There is a clear "personality tax" in American politics. If a leader’s policy approval is significantly higher than their overall approval, the "brand" is the problem, not the product.
To get a better handle on how these numbers translate to actual power, you should look at the specific "Issue Approval" ratings from Gallup or Pew. They often tell a much more nuanced story than the big "Approve/Disapprove" headline. Compare the economic approval of 2019 to the foreign policy approval of the same year; that's where the real strategy is hidden.