If you were watching the news late last year, you probably saw the grainy footage of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping shaking hands at an air base in Busan, South Korea. Trump called the meeting a "12 out of 10." Honestly, that’s classic Trump hyperbole, but for once, the markets actually believed some of the hype.
We are now sitting in early 2026, and the dust is finally starting to settle on what that trump meeting with china actually achieved—and what it didn't. Most people think it was just another round of "tariff man" doing his thing. It wasn't. This was a transactional "shallow truce" that shifted the entire board for the next two years.
The Busan Handshake: What Really Happened Behind Closed Doors?
The October 30 meeting wasn't some grand peace treaty. It was a 90-minute frantic session designed to pull both economies back from a very steep cliff. By late 2025, China had basically shut off the tap on rare earth elements, and Trump had retaliated with what he called "fentanyl tariffs."
Basically, the deal was a "you stop, I stop" arrangement.
📖 Related: Why the Bataan Death March Still Matters: What History Books Often Get Wrong
The U.S. agreed to chop that 20% fentanyl tariff in half, down to 10%. In exchange, China promised to stop shipping the precursor chemicals used to make the drug. If you're a farmer in the Midwest, this was the big win: China committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans before 2025 ended, with another 25 million tons per year through 2028.
But here’s the kicker. While the White House was taking a victory lap, experts at the Brookings Institution and the Atlantic Council were pointing out that we basically just moved back to the status quo ante. We didn't solve the structural issues. We just stopped the immediate bleeding.
Why the 2026 "Calendar of Meetings" is a Trap
China is playing the long game. They’ve managed to box Trump into a schedule that makes it hard for him to be his usual unpredictable self.
- April 2026: Trump is scheduled to head to Beijing for a full-scale summit.
- December 2026: Xi Jinping is expected to hit the U.S. for the G20.
By locking in these dates, Beijing has created a "pause" button. Since January 1, we’ve seen the Trump administration effectively halt new competitive actions. The Commerce Department even killed a plan to ban Chinese drones recently. Why? Because you don't blow up the bridge right before you're supposed to walk across it for a photo op in Beijing.
The Critical Minerals Gambit
On January 14, 2026, Trump signed a new Presidential Proclamation under Section 232. This is where things get technical but super important. He’s targeting "Processed Critical Minerals and Their Derivative Products" (PCMDPs).
Think lithium, cobalt, and those 15 lanthanide elements you haven't thought about since high school chemistry.
Instead of slapping immediate tariffs on these, he’s given the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) a 180-day window to negotiate "price floors." The goal is to make it economically viable to mine this stuff in the U.S. or with allies like Australia and Brazil, rather than relying on China's cheap, subsidized exports.
📖 Related: Canadian Election Date: What Most People Get Wrong
It’s a gamble. If these negotiations fail by July 2026, the tariffs come back with a vengeance.
The Nvidia Factor: High-Tech Tension
While soybeans are moving again, the "silicon curtain" is still very much intact.
China really wanted the U.S. to loosen up on high-end AI chips. They didn't get it. Trump hasn't budged on the most powerful Nvidia processors, though the administration did give the green light for the slightly less powerful H200 chips to ship to China just last week.
It's a weird, calibrated pressure. We sell them enough to keep the revenue flowing for American tech giants, but not enough for them to train the next generation of military AI. Or at least, that’s the theory.
What This Means for You (The Actionable Part)
If you're an investor or a business owner, "stability" is the word for the first half of 2026. But don't get comfortable. This is a fragile détente, not a permanent fix.
- Watch the July Deadline: If the critical mineral negotiations don't yield a "price floor" agreement by July 2026, expect a massive spike in costs for anything involving batteries or advanced electronics.
- Supply Chain Diversification: Despite the "truce," the trend is still toward "selective decoupling." If your business relies on Chinese-processed minerals, use this 180-day window to look at suppliers in Canada or Australia.
- Monitor the April Summit: The Beijing meeting in April will be the tell. If Trump comes home with a "Phase Three" trade deal, Chinese equities—which some have called "uninvestable"—might actually see a sustained rally.
This isn't the end of the trade war. It’s just a halftime break while both sides catch their breath and check their equipment. The trump meeting with china was a tactical retreat for both leaders, but the underlying rivalry over who controls the 21st-century economy hasn't changed one bit.
✨ Don't miss: Is There a Fire in San Diego Right Now Live: What You Need to Know Today
Keep an eye on the USTR's progress over the next three months. That will tell you more than any "12 out of 10" tweet ever could.