If you’ve spent any time looking at Tyler O'Neill stats, you know the drill. It’s a rollercoaster. One week he looks like the second coming of Mike Trout, launching 450-foot bombs and sprinting around the bases like a track star. The next? He’s on the 10-day injured list because his hamstring decided to stop cooperating.
Honestly, it’s frustrating.
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O’Neill is arguably the most physically gifted player in baseball who just cannot seem to stay on the grass. We are talking about a guy who grew up the son of a Canadian bodybuilding champion. He’s built like a refrigerator but runs like a deer. Yet, as of January 2026, the narrative around him has shifted from "future MVP" to "the league’s most expensive question mark."
After a weird, injury-riddled 2025 season in Baltimore where he hit a career-low .199, he’s officially opted into the final two years of his contract. He didn't have much of a choice. Nobody was going to give him $33 million on the open market after that showing. But if you dig into the underlying data—the stuff the nerds at Statcast obsess over—you’ll see why the Orioles (and fantasy owners) aren't giving up on him just yet.
The 2024 Red Sox Resurgence vs. The 2025 Baltimore Slide
Most fans remember O’Neill’s 2024 campaign in Boston as a massive "I told you so" to the St. Louis Cardinals. He was healthy-ish. He played 113 games. He smashed 31 home runs.
His isolated power (ISO) was .270, which put him in the same zip code as guys like Juan Soto and Anthony Santander. He was hitting the ball harder than almost anyone in the league, ranking in the 98th percentile for barrel rate. Basically, when he made contact, the ball stayed hit.
Then came 2025.
Baltimore signed him to that three-year, $49.5 million deal hoping he’d be the veteran right-handed power bat they needed to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup. Instead, O'Neill spent more time with the training staff than in the batter's box.
Breaking Down the 2025 Numbers
- Games Played: 54 (A brutal drop-off)
- Batting Average: .199
- Home Runs: 9
- OPS: .684
- WAR: -0.6 (First time in his career he was actually "below replacement level")
The weird part? He still has that Opening Day magic. In 2025, he homered for the sixth consecutive Opening Day. It’s an MLB record. He’s the undisputed king of late March. It’s the other five months that are the problem.
What the Advanced Stats Say (And Why There’s Hope)
If you just look at a .199 average, you’d think O’Neill is washed. He’s not. He’s 30 years old, which is usually the tail end of a player's physical prime, but O’Neill isn’t a normal human.
Even in his "bad" 2025 season, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) was actually .363. That is significantly higher than his actual .297 wOBA. In plain English: he was hitting the ball well, but it was going straight to people, or he was getting cheated by the massive dimensions of Camden Yards’ left field wall.
His exit velocity hasn't dipped. He’s still averaging over 91 mph off the bat. His bat speed remains in the top 10% of the league. The power is still there. The speed is still there (though he's stealing fewer bases to protect those hamstrings).
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The problem is the "intermittent time," as interim manager Tony Mansolino put it. You can't find a rhythm when you're playing for two weeks and then sitting for three. In 2025, he dealt with neck inflammation in April, a shoulder impingement that ate up most of May and June, and then wrist issues in August. It was a mess.
The Injury History: A Long, Strange Trip
To understand Tyler O'Neill stats, you have to understand his medical chart. Since 2018, he has had 17 different stints on the Injured List.
- The Hamstrings: These are his Achilles' heel. He’s had at least four major hamstring strains since his rookie year.
- The Freak Accidents: Remember the 2024 concussion after colliding with Rafael Devers? Or the "leg infection" that came out of nowhere?
- The Finger/Wrist Issues: For a guy who swings as hard as he does, any hand injury is a death sentence for his timing.
The Orioles are currently trying to figure out if his bulk is actually the problem. Being "too jacked" is a real thing in baseball. If your muscles are too tight, they snap. There’s a lot of talk heading into the 2026 season about O'Neill changing his conditioning to focus on flexibility—less heavy lifting, more yoga and pliability work.
The "Good" Tyler O'Neill vs. The "Bad" Tyler O'Neill
When O'Neill is right, he's a top-15 player in the league. We saw it in 2021 with the Cardinals when he finished 8th in MVP voting.
| Metric | 2021 (Peak) | 2025 (Floor) |
|---|---|---|
| BA | .286 | .199 |
| HR | 34 | 9 |
| K% | 31.3% | 24.4% |
| bWAR | 6.4 | -0.6 |
The irony? His strikeout rate in 2025 was actually the lowest of his career. He was making more contact, but it was "empty" contact. He was getting under the ball too much, leading to a lot of easy flyouts. He’s a player who actually benefits from being a bit more aggressive and swinging for the fences, even if it means more whiffs.
What to Expect in 2026
O’Neill is staying in Baltimore. He opted in because he knows 2026 is his last chance to prove he’s a starter. The Orioles are likely going to move him into a semi-permanent Designated Hitter (DH) role.
This is the smartest move for everyone.
Taking the stress of playing the outfield off his legs might finally—finally—keep him on the field for 130 games. If he gets 500 plate appearances, his history suggests he’ll hit 25 to 30 home runs. He’s too strong not to.
For the Orioles, he’s a low-risk, high-reward piece at this point because the money is already committed. For fantasy players, he’s the ultimate "post-hype" sleeper. Everyone is sick of him, which is exactly when you should be buying.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
- Watch the Spring Training lineup: If the Orioles are playing him at DH consistently in March, it’s a sign they are serious about his health preservation.
- Ignore the Batting Average: O’Neill will never be a .300 hitter again. Look at his Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. If those are high, the home runs will follow.
- Monitor the "Lefty" Splits: O'Neill remains a certified "Lefty Masher." In 2024, his .750 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers was the best in the entire league. If you're a manager, you're starting him every single time a southpaw is on the mound.
The book isn't closed on Tyler O’Neill. It’s just been a very long, very interrupted chapter. If he can stay upright, he’s still one of the most dangerous bats in the American League East.
Next Steps to Track Tyler O’Neill’s Progress:
To get a real sense of whether O'Neill is bouncing back, you should check his Statcast Bat Speed rankings once the 2026 season begins. If he's still clocking in at 75+ mph, the physical tools are intact. Additionally, keep an eye on his launch angle; if he drops that fly-ball rate back down to his 2021 levels, those 2025 pop-ups will turn back into line-drive homers.