If you stepped outside in Kyiv this morning, you’d feel more than just the biting January frost. You’d feel a city holding its breath. Today, January 17, 2026, the reality of the war has shifted from just a fight over dirt and trenches to a desperate struggle for survival against the cold.
It’s brutal.
The Ukrainian war update today centers on a terrifying warning from military intelligence (HUR): Moscow is reportedly planning to disconnect Ukraine’s three active nuclear power plants from the national grid. They aren't bombing the reactors—that would be a global catastrophe—but they are zeroing in on the critical substations that funnel that power to your home. If they succeed, millions will be left in subzero temperatures with no heat, no water, and no light.
The Frontline: Meat Grinders and Tactical Tricks
While the "energy war" grabs headlines, the Donbas remains a literal hellscape. In Myrnohrad, the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade just pulled off something straight out of a movie. They found a Russian infantryman hiding in a fish farm building. Instead of a messy assault, they used radio intercepts to find his callsign, "Kedr," and basically tricked him. They walked up to the door, spoke Russian, and told him, "Kedr, we’re friendly. We’ve come to assist."
He opened the door. The threat was eliminated without a single Ukrainian casualty.
But that’s one small win in a very heavy day. The General Staff reported 117 combat engagements since this morning. The Pokrovsk direction is still the most violent place on earth right now, with 35 separate Russian attacks recorded today alone.
Russia is losing people at a staggering rate—over 1,100 personnel in the last 24 hours—but they just keep coming. It's that "meat grinder" tactic we've seen for years, now focused on Myrnohrad and Rodynske.
The Numbers You Need to Know
- Russian Personnel Losses: 1,225,590 total (approximate).
- Daily Drone Attacks: Russia launched 76 drones last night; 50 of them were Shaheds.
- The Energy Gap: Kyiv only has about 50% of the 1,700 megawatts it needs to function.
Trump, Peace Talks, and the "Oreshnik" Factor
Diplomacy is getting weird. A Ukrainian delegation is in the U.S. right now, sitting down with Trump’s envoys, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. There’s a lot of talk about a "very workable" peace plan that might include demilitarized zones.
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Honestly? It’s a gamble.
Zelenskyy is pushing for "strong security guarantees," while Trump has been vocal about his frustration with how long this is taking. Meanwhile, Putin is saber-rattling with the "Oreshnik"—that new hypersonic missile. Russia used it again recently, hitting a target in Lviv, uncomfortably close to the Polish border. It’s a clear message to NATO: Stay back.
Why the Energy Grid is the Real Target
- Psychological Collapse: If you can't cook food or keep your kids warm, you stop caring about who "wins" and just want it to stop.
- Economic Paralysis: Factories can't run on hopes and dreams. Without power, Ukraine’s internal economy freezes.
- Nuclear Risk: By targeting substations, Russia forces automatic shutdowns of nuclear plants. This creates a "controlled" nuclear crisis that terrifies European neighbors.
What Most People Get Wrong
You’ll hear people say the war is "stagnant." That’s a massive oversimplification. Just because the lines on a map aren't moving miles a day doesn't mean the war is quiet.
The density of FPV drones is now so high that moving a single tank is a suicide mission. Ukraine’s 79th Brigade noted that Russia has moved away from big armored columns toward small-unit "infiltrations." They’re trying to leak into urban areas like Myrnohrad one or two soldiers at a time. It's a different kind of war—slower, sneakier, and arguably more exhausting for the defenders.
Actionable Insights for Following the Conflict
If you’re trying to stay informed without getting lost in the propaganda, here is how you should read the news coming out this week:
- Watch the Substation Updates: Don't just look at who captured what village. Watch the reports from Ukrenergo. If the nuclear substations go down, the humanitarian crisis will overshadow the military one.
- Track the "Coalition of the Willing": While the U.S. remains the biggest player, France and the UK are moving toward a declaration of intent to deploy "monitoring forces" if a ceasefire happens. This is a massive shift in European policy.
- Ignore the "Peace in Days" Headlines: Both sides are still deeply entrenched. Even if a plan is "workable," the logistics of a demilitarized zone are a nightmare that could take months, if not years, to iron out.
The war is entering a phase where the weather is as much of an enemy as the artillery. As the mercury stays well below zero, the next 48 hours will be critical for Ukraine's energy resilience.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
Monitor the official Telegram channels of the Ukrainian General Staff and DeepStateMap for real-time frontline shifts. If you want to help, focus on organizations providing decentralized power solutions—portable batteries and solar generators—as these are the only things keeping many civilian basements habitable tonight.