If you’ve ever walked through the winding streets of Prague’s Old Town and tried to figure out why your $100 bill feels like it buys less beer than it did two years ago, you aren't alone. Currency markets are weird. Honestly, most people think the US dollar to CZK exchange rate is just a number on a screen at a Change kiosk. It isn't. It's actually a high-stakes tug-of-war between the Federal Reserve in D.C. and the Czech National Bank (CNB) in Prague.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, the rate is hovering around 20.93 CZK.
That might sound like just another statistic. But if you’re a digital nomad, an exporter, or just a tourist planning a trip to the Charles Bridge, that number is the difference between a luxury dinner and a ham sandwich from a street stall. The US dollar has seen better days against the koruna. Back in early 2025, you could get over 24 CZK for a buck. Now? Not so much.
The invisible forces pushing the US dollar to CZK right now
Why did the dollar drop? It's basically a story of two central banks.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been in a cutting mood. Just last month, in December 2025, they trimmed interest rates by another 0.25%, bringing the range down to 3.50%-3.75%. When US rates go down, the dollar usually loses its "sparkle" for big global investors. They start looking for better returns elsewhere.
Meanwhile, in Prague, the Czech National Bank is playing a much tougher game.
The "Hawkish" Czechs
The CNB is famously conservative. While other countries were slashing rates like a Black Friday sale, the Czechs stayed cautious. They’ve kept their key rate at 3.5% into 2026. Because Czech inflation (which averaged 2.5% in 2025) is finally behaving, the koruna has become a bit of a "safe haven" in Central Europe.
David Havrlant, a chief economist who watches this stuff closely, recently noted that the Czech economy is expanding. People are spending money. Real wages are up. All of that makes the koruna stronger and the dollar look... well, a bit tired.
What actually moves the needle (beyond the news)
Don't just look at interest rates. There are three big things happening right now that are quietly messing with the US dollar to CZK parity:
- The German "Ghost" Effect: The Czech Republic is basically Germany’s backyard workshop. If German industry sneezes, the Czech koruna catches a cold. Since Germany is finally showing signs of a cyclical recovery in early 2026, the koruna is feeling more confident.
- Energy Prices: Last year was a mess for energy, but in 2026, electricity prices in Czechia are actually dropping. Lower energy costs mean lower inflation, which gives the CNB room to keep the currency stable without panicking.
- The "Trump Factor" and Tariffs: We can't ignore politics. There’s a lot of talk about US tariffs on European goods. If the US pushes hard on tariffs, it could actually hurt the koruna because Czechia exports so many car parts. This is the "wild card" that could suddenly send the dollar back up to 22 or 23 CZK.
Is 20 CZK the new normal?
Kinda.
If you look at the historical data from the last year, the dollar has been on a steady slide. In September 2025, we were at 20.70. By Christmas, it hit 20.56. We've seen a tiny "dead cat bounce" in early January 2026 back to nearly 21, but the trend line is pointing down.
Experts like Dominik Rusinko from Patria Finance think the koruna will stay strong. He points to the fact that Czech households are finally feeling wealthy again. When locals spend, the economy grows. When the economy grows, the currency shines.
It’s a simple cycle, but it’s brutal for anyone holding US dollars.
Why you shouldn't trust the airport kiosks
This is a pro tip: the "market rate" you see on Google (like that 20.93 number) is almost never what you get in person.
Prague is notorious for predatory exchange offices. Some will offer you 15 CZK for a dollar when the real rate is 21. Honestly, it's a scam. You’re better off using a contactless card or a digital bank like Revolut or Wise. They get you much closer to the "interbank" rate.
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The 2026 Outlook: What to watch for
If you're waiting for the dollar to get stronger before you exchange your cash, you might be waiting a while.
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026. That’s a huge deal. Markets hate uncertainty. Until we know who the next "Money Boss" in the US is, the dollar might stay volatile. On the flip side, the Czech government is planning some "fiscal loosening"—basically spending more money than they have. That usually weakens a currency, but in this case, it might just keep the koruna from getting too strong.
Actionable insights for your wallet
Knowing the US dollar to CZK rate is only useful if you do something with it.
- For Travelers: Don't wait until you land at Václav Havel Airport. Use an ATM from a reputable bank like ČSOB or KB once you’re in the city center. Always choose "Pay in local currency (CZK)" when the machine asks if you want their "guaranteed" conversion rate. Their rate is always worse.
- For Business Owners: If you’re paying Czech contractors, consider "locking in" a rate now. With the dollar trending lower, your costs in USD are going up every month.
- For Investors: Keep an eye on the 10-year Czech bond yields. They’re expected to hit 5% soon. If that happens, more global money will flow into Czechia, pushing the koruna even higher (and the dollar lower).
The days of the 25 CZK dollar are gone for now. We are in a new era of a "leaner" dollar and a "meaner" koruna. Keep your eyes on the inflation prints coming out of Prague every month—they are the real scoreboard for this game.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should check the Czech National Bank's monthly bulletin. It’s the most boring read on earth, but it tells you exactly where the interest rates are headed before the "experts" on TV even mention it. If the CNB signals a rate cut, that’s your signal to buy dollars. If they stay silent, expect the koruna to keep its edge.