Honestly, if you’ve tried to pay for a Netflix subscription or buy some equipment from abroad lately, you’ve felt it. The US dollar vs taka drama is more than just numbers on a screen at the bank. It is the reason your groceries are pricier and why your local business owner looks a bit stressed when the news comes on.
As of January 2026, the rate is hovering around 122.45 BDT per USD. It’s a jump. Just a few weeks ago, we were looking at 120. It feels like the Taka is on a slippery slope, but the reality is way more nuanced than just "the currency is crashing."
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The Crawling Peg and Why It’s Still Weird
So, Bangladesh Bank finally got sick of the old "managed" system and went for a "crawling peg." Basically, they set a midpoint—initially around 117 Taka back in mid-2024—and let the market breathe a little. But "breathing" in this economy sometimes feels like hyperventilating.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) basically told us: "Stop pretending the Taka is stronger than it is." And they were right. When the central bank tries to hold the rate artificially low, the dollars just vanish into the "kerb market" (the unofficial open market). By letting the rate crawl, the goal was to kill the black market and bring those dollars back into the actual banks.
It's sorta working. Remittances—the money our expats send home—hit a massive $32.92 billion in 2025. That’s a record. It’s the lifeline keeping the whole ship from sinking. But even with that record cash coming in, the demand for the dollar is just… relentless.
What's Actually Eating Our Dollars?
It’s easy to blame the government or "global conditions," but let's look at the specific teeth biting into the Taka's value:
- Intermediate Imports: Our factories are finally starting to hum again after the 2024 unrest. But to make things, you need raw materials. To get raw materials, you need dollars. Imports grew over 5% recently, which is great for industry but tough on the currency.
- The Debt Pile: Bangladesh is currently sitting on about $112 billion in debt. Paying the interest on those loans is like having a hole in your pocket that never gets patched.
- The LDC Graduation Factor: In November 2026, we lose our "Least Developed Country" status. It’s like graduating college—you’re proud, but now you have to pay full price for everything. We will lose trade preferences on about 70% of our exports. The market is already pricing in that future anxiety.
US Dollar vs Taka: The "Kerb Market" vs The Bank
If you walk into a bank in Dhaka today, they might tell you one rate. If you talk to a money changer on the street, it’s a different story. This gap is what the central bank is desperately trying to close.
Dr. Fahmida Khatun from the CPD has been vocal about this—moving to a flexible rate was a bold move, but it’s painful. When the Taka devalues, inflation hits 8.49% (as of last December). Your salary stays the same, but that liter of soybean oil doesn't care.
Is there a silver lining? Kinda. A weaker Taka makes our exports—like those RMG shirts—cheaper for Americans to buy. If our exports can grow faster than our imports, the US dollar vs taka pressure might ease. But right now, export growth is sluggish, barely hitting 0.6%.
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The IMF "Wake-Up Call"
The IMF hasn't just been giving advice; they've been setting ceilings. They told the interim government they can't borrow more than $8.44 billion from international sources for the rest of this fiscal year. It's a "tough love" approach. We can't keep fueling growth with debt. We have to earn our dollars.
The reserves currently sit at about $27.85 billion (BPM6 method). It sounds like a lot, but for an economy of our size, it’s just enough to stay afloat. It’s not a cushion; it’s a life jacket.
What You Should Actually Do Now
If you're an individual or a small business owner, waiting for the "good old days" of 85 Taka per dollar is a waste of time. That ship has sailed.
- For Exporters: Now is your time. Your goods are competitive. Push for more volume while the Taka is low.
- For Importers: Hedge your bets. If you need to buy machinery six months from now, don't wait for a "dip" that might never come. Secure your LC (Letter of Credit) terms early.
- For Savers: Inflation is the real enemy. Keeping cash in a standard savings account might actually mean you're losing money in real terms. Look into inflation-adjusted bonds or diversified assets.
- For Freelancers: You’re the winners here. Every dollar you earn from US clients is worth 40% more than it was two years ago. Keep your funds in formal channels to support the national reserve while enjoying the higher conversion.
The US dollar vs taka rate is going to stay volatile through 2026 as we head toward that LDC graduation. Don't panic, but don't be complacent either. The "new normal" is here, and it’s priced in greenbacks.
Monitor the Bangladesh Bank's weekly reserve reports and the crawling peg adjustments. If the gap between the bank rate and the kerb market widens beyond 2-3 Taka, expect another "correction" (devaluation) soon. Use this data to time your major foreign currency purchases.