Everyone wants to know what the Oracle of Omaha thinks about the guy in the Oval Office. It’s the ultimate water cooler topic in Manhattan and at your local diner alike. Honestly, it’s kinda fascinating how people project their own politics onto Warren Buffett. Some see him as the ultimate capitalist who must love Donald Trump’s deregulation. Others remember his vocal support for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and assume he’s the President’s biggest hater.
The reality? It is way more nuanced than a red or blue hat.
Warren Buffett is 95 years old now. He’s lived through 16 U.S. Presidents. He’s seen the country thrive under Democrats and grow under Republicans. He’s not a guy who panics because of a single election cycle. But in 2025 and 2026, things got... a little more direct than usual. Especially regarding those massive trade shifts we’ve been seeing.
The "Act of War" and the Tooth Fairy
If you follow Berkshire Hathaway, you know Buffett usually plays his cards close to his chest when it comes to sitting politicians. He’s got thousands of employees and millions of shareholders who span the political spectrum. He doesn't want to tick anyone off. But when the Trump administration doubled down on global tariffs recently, Buffett didn’t stay silent for long.
In a really candid interview with CBS News that felt more like a warning than a chat, Buffett called tariffs an "act of war to some degree."
That’s a heavy phrase for a guy who usually talks about "moats" and "compounding interest." He wasn't talking about literal bombs, obviously. He was talking about economic aggression. He basically argued that when you use trade as a weapon, you’re playing a dangerous game with the global plumbing that keeps everyone fed and employed.
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He also dropped one of those classic Buffett-isms that went viral: "The Tooth Fairy doesn't pay 'em!"
He was talking about who actually pays for those 25% taxes on Mexican or Canadian imports. Spoilers: It’s not the exporting country. It’s the person buying the car in Omaha or the groceries in Atlanta. To Buffett, tariffs are just a consumption tax in a fancy costume. He's worried that these moves won't just "rebalance" trade but will actually spike inflation and make the world a whole lot less stable.
Why He Refused to Pick a Side in 2024
Heading into the last election, the rumor mill was working overtime. You probably saw those AI-generated videos on X or TikTok where it looked like Buffett was endorsing Trump’s economic plan. Trump even shared a video on Truth Social claiming Buffett called his moves the "best in 50 years."
None of it was true.
Berkshire Hathaway actually had to issue a super rare, blunt statement saying Buffett doesn't endorse any political candidates or investment products. Why the sudden shyness?
- Fraud Concerns: He’s genuinely worried about deepfakes and people using his face to scam folks into buying crypto or voting a certain way.
- Company Neutrality: He doesn't want to make Geico or Dairy Queen a "blue" or "red" brand.
- The "And Then What?" Factor: Buffett always asks the second-order question. If he endorses someone, and they do something he hates, he’s stuck with it.
It’s interesting because he used to be so public about his politics. He stood on stage with Hillary. He was a huge Obama supporter. But lately, he’s pulled back into a shell of "strategic silence." He did show up to the 2025 annual meeting with Hillary Clinton in the audience, which raised some eyebrows, but he kept the focus on the "American Tailwind."
The $347 Billion Question
You can tell more about what Buffett thinks by looking at his checkbook than his interviews. Right now, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a mountain of cash—$347.7 billion as of mid-2025.
If he thought the current administration’s policies were a guaranteed rocket ship for the economy, he’d be buying everything in sight. Instead, he’s been a net seller of stocks. He even trimmed his massive Apple stake.
Does this mean he thinks a "Trump Crash" is coming? Not necessarily. It just means he doesn’t see bargains. He thinks the risk-to-reward ratio is out of whack. He’s essentially waiting for the "trade war" or the "economic war" he warned about to create a moment of panic where he can step in and buy things for cheap. He’s playing the long game while everyone else is focused on the daily headlines.
What This Actually Means for Your Portfolio
So, what’s the takeaway here? If you’re trying to invest based on Warren Buffett on Trump, here are the actionable insights you can actually use.
- Stop looking for "Trump Stocks" or "Harris Stocks": Buffett has lived through 15 different presidencies as an investor. He made money during the high-tax eras and the low-tax ones. He focuses on the business, not the guy in the White House.
- Watch the "And Then What?": When a new policy drops—like a 25% tariff on Canadian lumber—don't just look at the headline. Ask who pays for it. If you own companies that rely on global supply chains, their margins might be about to get squeezed.
- Cash isn't trash: Buffett’s huge cash pile isn't a "bet against America." It’s a bet on his own patience. If the market gets volatile because of trade tensions, having cash is what allows you to be "greedy when others are fearful."
- Ignore Social Media "Endorsements": Unless you hear it directly from the Berkshire Hathaway website or a live interview with Becky Quick on CNBC, assume it’s a fake. The man is very clear: he’s not telling you how to vote.
Buffett’s fundamental belief is that the "American Tailwind" is stronger than any one politician. He’s frustrated with the "trade as a weapon" strategy, and he thinks the current tariff path is a mistake that consumers will eventually pay for. But he isn't betting against the country. He’s just waiting for the drama to clear so he can find a price he actually likes.
To follow in his footsteps, focus on buying great businesses that can survive any president. If a company can only succeed because of a specific tax break or a specific trade barrier, it’s probably not a business Buffett would touch with a ten-foot pole. Keep it simple. Stay patient. And remember, the Tooth Fairy is definitely not coming to save the economy.
Next Step for You: Review your portfolio for companies with heavy international supply chains. If 25% tariffs become the permanent "new normal," check if those companies have the pricing power to pass those costs to customers—because if they don't, their profits are going to vanish.