Honestly, if you’re planning to step outside in the District tomorrow, Friday, January 16, 2026, don’t let that tiny bit of afternoon sun fool you. It is going to be cold. We’re talking about a day where the high is only hitting 37°F.
After the wild wind gusts we saw on Thursday, things are settling down just a little bit, but "settling" is a relative term when you're staring down a low of 21°F Friday night.
Washington DC Weather Tomorrow: The Reality of the "January Thaw" Ending
We had a weirdly warm start to the year, but that "January thaw" everyone was talking about has officially packed its bags. According to the latest data from the National Weather Service and local trackers like the Capital Weather Gang, we are firmly back in a polar vortex pattern.
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You’ve probably noticed the air feels different—sharper. That’s because those lobes of Arctic air are finally reaching the East Coast. Tomorrow is basically the transition day between the first cold wave and the second one hitting over the MLK holiday weekend.
The Hour-by-Hour Vibe
- Morning: It's going to be crisp. You’ll wake up to mostly clear skies, but temperatures will be hovering in the low 20s.
- Afternoon: We’ll see some "intervals of clouds and sunshine," as the meteorologists like to call it. High of 37°F.
- The "Conversational" Snow: There is a tiny, roughly 10% chance of a stray snow flurry. It’s what experts call a "conversational event"—meaning it's just enough to talk about at the coffee shop, but not enough to actually do anything to the roads.
Wind and Humidity
The wind is shifting. On Thursday, we had those brutal northwest gusts. Tomorrow, the wind will come from the southwest at about 10 mph. That’s a bit of a relief, but it’s still going to feel like the low 30s for most of the day. Humidity is sitting at a dry 36%, so keep that lip balm handy.
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Is Snow Actually Coming This Weekend?
Everyone in DC asks the same thing the second the temperature drops: "Are we getting a real storm?"
For tomorrow, the answer is no. But if you’re looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday, things get interesting. Most models, including the European and the GFS, are watching a coastal system. Right now, it looks like it might stay too far offshore for a major DC event, but we’ve seen these things shift at the last second.
The GFS has been over-forecasting snow all winter, so take those "12-inch blizzard" rumors with a massive grain of salt. We’re more likely looking at a dusting or maybe an inch if the system tracks closer to the Chesapeake.
Travel and Lifestyle Impact
If you’re commuting into the city or walking near the National Mall, tomorrow is a "heavy coat and gloves" day.
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- Driving: Roads should be dry. No ice is expected since precipitation is so low (10% chance).
- Attire: Layering is key. That 37°F high occurs in a very narrow window in the mid-afternoon. Most of the day will feel significantly colder.
- Energy: Check your tire pressure. These sudden drops from the 50s down to the 20s usually trigger those annoying "low pressure" sensors in your car.
Actionable Tips for Friday
- The 3:00 PM Window: If you need to walk the dog or run an errand, the warmest part of the day will be between 2:00 PM and 4:00 PM.
- Hydrate Your Skin: The 36% humidity combined with indoor heating is a recipe for disaster for your skin.
- Check Your Pipes: While we aren't in "pipe-bursting" territory yet, the overnight low of 21°F is a good reminder to make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected.
- Weekend Prep: Since there is a slight chance of more "conversational" snow on Saturday, maybe get your grocery shopping done tomorrow afternoon while the sun is out.
Washington DC weather tomorrow is all about the return of a true Mid-Atlantic winter. It’s not a blizzard, it’s just cold. Stay warm, District.