If you’ve ever dipped a toe into the surf at Huntington Beach only to pull it back with a yelp, you know the Pacific doesn't play by the rules. It’s huge. It's moody. Honestly, calling it a single "ocean" when it comes to heat is kinda like saying the climate in Alaska and Arizona is the same because they’re both in the U.S.
Right now, in early 2026, we’re seeing some weird stuff. We just came off a year where the ocean absorbed a truly mind-boggling amount of heat—some scientists say it’s the equivalent of 12 Hiroshima bombs’ worth of energy exploding into the water every second. Yet, if you look at the equatorial Pacific today, things are actually looking a bit chilly.
The La Niña Curveball
Basically, we’re sitting in a weak La Niña phase. For those of us who aren't atmospheric scientists, that just means the trade winds are blowing harder than usual, pushing the warm surface water toward Asia and letting the deep, cold water well up near South America.
But don’t let that "cool" label fool you.
While the central Pacific is sitting at an anomaly of about $-0.7°C$ to $-0.8°C$ (which is technically cold), the North Pacific is still running hot. It’s a messy tug-of-war. NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center just dropped their latest update on January 8, 2026, and they’re giving us a 75% chance that this La Niña fizzles out by March.
What happens after that? Most likely "neutral" conditions, which sounds boring but actually makes weather forecasting way more chaotic because there’s no big "driver" in the driver's seat.
Why the Water Temperature Pacific Ocean Varies So Much
You can’t just give one number for the Pacific. It doesn't work that way.
If you’re heading to the Philippines or Indonesia right now, you’re looking at bathtub water—often over 86°F. Meanwhile, if you’re a surfer at Pacific Beach in San Diego, you’re looking at about 61°F. That’s actually a couple of degrees warmer than the historical average for mid-January, but it still feels like an ice bath without a 4/3mm wetsuit.
Here is the breakdown of what is actually happening across the basin:
- The Western Pacific Warm Pool: This is the "boiler room" of the planet. Temperatures here rarely drop below 80°F. Because of the current La Niña, this area is even more loaded with heat than usual.
- The California Current: This is why San Francisco is cold in the summer. It’s a river of chilly water moving south from the Arctic. Even when the rest of the world is "warming," this current keeps the West Coast feeling brisk.
- The "Cold Tongue": This is a strip of water along the equator near the Galapagos. During La Niña, this area gets significantly colder, which is exactly what we're seeing on the satellite maps this week.
The 2026 Outlook: What the Pros are Saying
Zeke Hausfather and the folks over at Berkeley Earth are predicting that 2026 will probably be the fourth warmest year on record. That sounds like a "cool down" compared to the record-breaking heat of 2024, but it’s still part of an 11-year streak of extreme warming.
The heat isn't just on the surface anymore. It’s sinking.
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Data from the top 2,000 meters of the ocean shows that the Pacific is storing "legacy heat." This is energy trapped decades ago that is finally starting to circulate. It’s why marine heatwaves—those weird patches of "the Blob" water that kill off kelp forests—are becoming so common even when the surface indexes say things are "normal."
Real Talk for Travelers and Divers
If you’re planning a trip, you’ve got to check the local anomalies, not just the averages.
For instance, the North Pacific (around Hawaii and toward Japan) is showing significantly higher anomalies than the South Pacific right now. If you're a diver, this matters because warm water holds less oxygen and can lead to coral bleaching. We’re already seeing reports of stress in the shallower reefs of the western Pacific atolls.
On the flip side, if you're hitting the coast of Peru or Chile, the upwelling from La Niña means the water is nutrient-rich and cold. Great for fishing, tough for a casual swim without a thick layer of neoprene.
Practical Steps to Track the Water Yourself
Stop looking at generic weather apps. They’re usually wrong about the ocean.
- Check the NINO3.4 Index: This is the "gold standard" for the Pacific. If it's below $-0.5$, it's La Niña. If it's above $+0.5$, it's El Niño. Right now, it's hovering in that sweet spot of transition.
- Use NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch: Even if you aren't looking at coral, their heat stress maps are the most accurate way to see where "blobs" of warm water are sitting.
- Look at the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation): This is the "long game." The PDO just recorded a value of $-1.67$. When the PDO is negative like this, it generally favors cooler coastal water along North America, which might explain why the West Coast hasn't felt the "global boil" quite as intensely this month.
The Pacific is essentially a giant battery. It’s currently in a phase where it’s charging up in the west and cooling off in the east. By the time we hit the summer of 2026, the models are already whispering about a return to El Niño. That would flip the whole script, bringing record-breaking warmth back to the eastern Pacific and likely making 2027 another record-shatterer.
For now, enjoy the "cool" while it lasts, because in the context of the last century, even a "cool" Pacific is still warmer than almost anything our grandparents ever swam in.
Your next move: Before booking that spring surf trip, check the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomaly maps on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center website. Specifically, look for the "Weekly SST Departures" map. If your destination is showing a dark red patch, expect higher humidity, potential storm surges, and zero need for a wetsuit. If it's blue, pack the 4mm.