If you’ve lived in Buffalo for more than five minutes, you know the drill. You look at the app, see a snowflake icon, and shrug. But right now, the weather Buffalo NY 7 day forecast is doing that thing where it tries to be three different seasons in a single week.
Honestly? It's kind of a mess.
We are currently sitting in the middle of a Winter Storm Warning that isn't pulling any punches. As of Thursday, January 15, 2026, the city is waking up to a "heavy snow storm" reality. If you’re looking at the lake and thinking it looks quiet, don't be fooled.
The Immediate Outlook: Bracing for the "Heavy" Stuff
Today is the pivot point. While the early morning temperature is hovering around 24°F, the high for Thursday is actually going to drop to a staggering 16°F. That’s not a typo. Usually, the sun comes up and things warm up, but a blast of Arctic air is sliding in, meaning we’re doing the reverse.
The National Weather Service has the warning in place until 7 p.m. for northern Erie County and until 1 a.m. Friday for the Southtowns.
Expect 5 to 10 inches in the city, but if you’re down in the Boston Hills or the Chautauqua Ridge, you’re looking at a foot or more. Visibility is basically zero in spots. The wind is coming out of the west at about 14 mph, which doesn't sound like much until you realize it’s pushing a wall of white off Lake Erie.
✨ Don't miss: Why the Airbus Industrie A380 800 Passenger Lufthansa Experience Still Wins
Friday, January 16: The Deceptive "Warm-Up"
Friday is going to feel like a tropical vacation by comparison, even though it's still objectively freezing. We’re looking at a high of 31°F.
The heavy stuff tapers off Thursday night, leaving us with just some lingering snow showers. Most of the accumulation will be minimal—maybe a coating to an inch. It’s that weird Buffalo window where you can actually see the pavement on the 33 for a few hours before the next system sneaks in.
Breaking Down the Weather Buffalo NY 7 Day Forecast
Planning your week in Western New York is less about "will it snow?" and more about "how much of my car will I have to dig out?" Here is the actual progression for the next several days:
- Saturday (Jan 17): High of 36°F. This is our peak for the week. It’ll be mostly cloudy during the day, but snow showers return at night. If you have errands, do them Saturday morning.
- Sunday (Jan 18): The bottom falls out again. We drop to a high of 23°F with consistent snow showers. This is the lead-in to a second, stronger Arctic blast.
- Monday (Jan 19): High of 21°F. The wind is the story here, gusting up to 23 mph from the southwest. Wind chills will likely be in the negatives.
- Tuesday (Jan 20): Brutal. High of 13°F, low of 8°F. It’s "don't leave your dog outside" weather.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): A slight recovery to 25°F, but more snow is expected.
Why the Southtowns Always Get Hammered
Most people check the "Buffalo" forecast and assume it applies to everyone from Amherst to Orchard Park. That is a massive mistake.
Lake effect snow is a precision instrument. The "fetch"—the distance the wind travels over the open, relatively warm water of Lake Erie—determines who gets buried. Because the lake isn't frozen yet, it’s acting like a moisture factory.
When the wind hits the hills south of the city (orographic lift), it dumps everything. You might have two inches of slush in Niagara Falls and two feet of powder in East Aurora. This week, that southwest flow on Monday and Tuesday is a classic setup for the Southtowns to get the brunt of it while the Northtowns just get the wind.
Survival Insights for the Week Ahead
The "feels-like" temperature is going to be your most important metric this week. While the mercury says 16°F today, it feels like 13°F right now and will likely feel like zero or below by dinner time.
💡 You might also like: Washington State Theme Parks: What Most People Get Wrong
- Check your tires now. If you're still running all-seasons with 3/32" tread, you’re basically driving on hockey pucks.
- Clear your tailpipe. If you get stuck or are idling while shoveling, a blocked exhaust can lead to carbon monoxide buildup in the cabin. People forget this every single year.
- Watch the wind on Monday. A 23 mph wind at 21°F creates a dangerous wind chill. Frostbite can set in on exposed skin in under 30 minutes.
The pattern for the rest of January looks consistently cold. We aren't seeing any "January Thaw" on the horizon yet. Instead, expect a reinforcing shot of polar air every 3 to 4 days.
Stay off the 190 if the lake effect bands start to settle; those whiteouts happen in seconds. If you're traveling through the Chautauqua Ridge, double your travel time. This isn't just a "snowy week"—it's a full-on Arctic initiation.