November 1st is a weird day for the atmosphere. Honestly, it is the calendar's biggest mood swing. One year you're sweating in a light t-shirt while the kids pick through leftover Halloween candy, and the next, you’re scraping a quarter-inch of frost off your windshield at six in the morning. It is basically the official "bridge" between the last gasps of autumn and the brutal reality of winter.
People always ask: "Is it going to be cold?" The answer is usually yes, but "cold" is a relative term when you’re looking at global data. For 2025, the weather for November 1st proved that the old rules are kind of breaking. In the United States, we saw a massive temperature divide that felt like two different seasons were fighting for the same piece of land.
While the Pacific Northwest was getting hammered by an "atmospheric river"—a long, thin moisture plume that basically acts like a fire hose in the sky—the Southwest was bake-drying in record heat. In places like Utah and Nevada, November wasn't just warm; it was the hottest November on record for some counties.
The Great November 1st Divide
If you were standing in London on November 1st, you probably felt that classic, drizzly dampness. The UK Met Office reported that November 2025 started unusually warm across England before a sharp drop later in the month. It was the wettest month of the year for the UK, with rainfall hitting 31% above the usual average.
Meanwhile, if you were in the American Midwest, the weather for November 1st was deceptively calm. In Illinois, farmers were looking at temperatures in the mid-60s. That sounds nice until you realize the soil was bone-dry. According to the University of Illinois "farmdoc" project, large chunks of the state were in a severe drought right as the month turned.
Then you have the tropics. Normally, by November 1st, we think the hurricane season is basically packing its bags. Not in 2025. This year was only the second time in recorded history that we saw three Category 5 "monsters" in a single season. Hurricane Melissa was still fresh in everyone's minds, a storm so perfectly formed that its internal structure never even triggered a typical "eyewall replacement cycle."
Why the November 1st Forecast is Hard to Predict
Meteorologists have a love-hate relationship with this time of year. It’s all about the jet stream. By early November, the jet stream—that fast-moving ribbon of air high in the atmosphere—starts to dip further south. When it dips, it pulls down Arctic air.
When that cold air hits the warm, moist air still hanging around the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic, things get messy. This is why you get those "sprawling winter storms" that can dump a foot of snow in the Carolina mountains while people in Florida are still wearing flip-flops.
- Northern States: You're looking at a range of $32^{\circ}F$ to $50^{\circ}F$.
- Southern States: Often stays between $68^{\circ}F$ and $86^{\circ}F$.
- Europe: Northern cities like Oslo might hit $30^{\circ}F$, while Valletta in Malta stays at a beautiful $70^{\circ}F$.
The 2025 season showed us that November warming is a real trend. Since 1970, about 92% of U.S. cities have seen their average November temperatures climb. On average, it’s about $2.4^{\circ}F$ warmer than it used to be. That doesn't sound like much until you're a cranberry farmer in the Northeast and your plants start budding too early because they think it's spring.
Folklore and Reality: All Saints' Day Weather
There is a lot of history tied to the weather for November 1st. It’s All Saints' Day, or "Hallowmas." In old European folklore, this was the day the "harvest was in." If the weather was clear on November 1st, some traditions said it predicted a hard winter.
In 2025, the reality was more about rain than omens. Storm Claudia swept through Western Europe right around this time, causing widespread flooding in places like Albania and Greece. In Italy, extreme rainfall led to tragic mudslides near Trieste after ten inches of rain fell in just eight hours.
What You Should Actually Pack for November 1st
If you're traveling, don't trust a single-day forecast more than 48 hours out. The atmosphere is too volatile. Instead, follow the "rule of three" for layers:
- A Base Layer: Something moisture-wicking because you will sweat if you're walking through a terminal or a busy city.
- An Insulation Layer: A light fleece or down "puffer" vest.
- The Shell: This is the big one. It has to be windproof. The November wind is what actually gets you, not the temperature itself.
Honestly, the weather for November 1st is the ultimate test of a traveler's patience. You might get the "Bluebird" skies of a late autumn afternoon, or you might find yourself stuck in a de-icing line at O'Hare.
Looking Ahead to the Rest of the Month
The Copernicus Climate Change Service noted that 2025 is virtually certain to be one of the top three warmest years on record. This means that while we still see those "Arctic outbreaks," they are often preceded by record-breaking heat.
For example, on November 14th, 2025, Springfield set a record high of $78^{\circ}F$. Just two weeks later, Peoria smashed its snowfall record with 5.2 inches in a single day. That is a 40-degree swing in a very short window.
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If you're planning an event or a trip for next year, look at the three-year averages. The 2023–2025 period is the first time the global three-year average has exceeded $1.5^{\circ}C$ above pre-industrial levels. This shift is making the "shoulder seasons" like November much more unpredictable.
Actionable Tips for Navigating Early November Weather
- Check the "Dew Point," not just the Temp: If the dew point is high, a $40^{\circ}F$ morning will feel much colder and "raw" than a dry $35^{\circ}F$ morning.
- Watch the "Atmospheric Rivers": If you are on the West Coast, these are the primary drivers of November flooding. Keep an eye on NOAA's satellite maps for long plumes of moisture heading toward the coast.
- Winterize Early: By November 1st, your outdoor pipes should already be drained. The 2025 "post-Thanksgiving" storm proved that winter can arrive with zero warning.
- Monitor Tropical Overhang: Even if the hurricane season is "over," tropical moisture can still fuel massive rain events in the Northeast.
Don't let the calendar fool you. November 1st isn't just "October 32nd." It is its own beast. Whether you're tracking a late-season cyclone in Southeast Asia or just trying to figure out if you need a coat for a morning walk in London, the key is flexibility. The climate is shifting, and the 2025 data shows us that "normal" is a moving target.
Prepare for the wind, expect the rain, and be grateful for those rare, crisp, golden afternoons that only November can provide.