You’ve probably seen it before. You check the weather on your phone, see a nice sunny icon, and drive down to the shore only to find a wall of gray mist or a wind so sharp it cuts right through your hoodie. Belmar is tricky like that. Looking at a weather forecast Belmar NJ isn't quite the same as checking the temp for somewhere like New Brunswick or even Howell.
The Atlantic Ocean is a massive heat sink, and it doesn't care what the "regional" forecast says. Right now, as we move through mid-January 2026, we're seeing exactly how that coastal friction plays out. While inland Jersey might be dealing with a bit of a "January Thaw," the folks living near the Shark River Inlet are currently bracing for a messy mix of rain and light snow as the weekend hits.
The Reality of the Weekend Outlook
If you're planning to head down to the boardwalk this Saturday, January 17, or Sunday, don't expect a winter wonderland or a dry stroll. It’s gonna be kinda raw. Saturday is looking like a high of about 41°F, but with a 60% chance of rain that likely turns into a slushy snow mix overnight.
Honestly, the wind is the real story here. We’re coming off a Gale Warning from Friday, and while things are settling slightly, the National Weather Service is still seeing southwest winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts hitting 25 mph. That makes 41°F feel a lot more like 30°F.
Quick Glance at the Coming Days:
- Saturday, Jan 17: High 41°F / Low 33°F. Rain likely in the afternoon, mixing with snow late.
- Sunday, Jan 18: High 35°F / Low 24°F. Light snow likely (60% chance), adding a dusting to the boards.
- MLK Day (Monday): High 35°F. Bright sun, but very cold. If you're out, bundle up because the wind chill will be brutal.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: The "Polar Vortex" vibe returns. High of only 22°F.
That Weird "Ocean Effect" You Won't See on the App
Most people think "Ocean Effect" only means snow, like they get in Buffalo with the lakes. In Belmar, it’s more about temperature moderation. During these cold snaps, the ocean water—currently sitting at a chilly 39°F—is actually warmer than the air in the middle of the night.
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This creates a microclimate. Sometimes, it keeps the beach a few degrees warmer than the inland suburbs, turning what would be a snowstorm into a cold, depressing drizzle. But then there's the "sea breeze" factor. In the spring and summer, Belmar can be 10 degrees cooler than Wall Township just two miles away.
In January, the humidity is actually quite low—dew points are hanging around 11°F—which means the air is "dry-cold." This makes it easier for the wind to sap the heat right out of your skin. If you’re walking the boardwalk near 10th Avenue, that wind coming off the water has zero obstacles. It hits you full force.
What Surfers and Fishermen Are Seeing
You'd think the ocean would be empty in January, but the Belmar surf community is pretty hardcore. Surf Captain and other local trackers are showing 3-foot swells for Saturday with "choppy" conditions.
If you’re crazy enough to go in, you're looking at:
- Water Temp: 39°F (Basically an ice bath).
- Gear: You need a 6/5/4mm hooded wetsuit, 7mm boots, and 5mm gloves.
- Currents: The Shark River Inlet is always a bit temperamental, especially when we have shifting winds from the Southwest to the Northwest like we're seeing this weekend.
For the boaters, the Small Craft Advisory is a big deal. The seas are running 3 to 4 feet. That might not sound like "Perfect Storm" levels, but in a 20-foot center console, it's enough to make for a very bad day.
Why "Average" Weather in Belmar is a Lie
If you look at historical data from sites like WeatherSpark, they’ll tell you the average high in Belmar for late January is 40°F. But averages are just the middle of two extremes.
We’ve had Januaries where it’s 60°F and people are playing volleyball on 16th Avenue, and we've had years where the Shark River actually freezes over enough for people to (dangerously) walk on it. This year, we're trending toward a "volatile" pattern. The first half of the month was 14 degrees warmer than last year, but the Polar Vortex is currently waking up.
Staying Safe During a Coastal Freeze
The boardwalk can get incredibly slick. Unlike city streets, the boards don't always get salted the same way, and the salt spray from the ocean can create a thin, invisible layer of ice called "black ice's salty cousin."
Basically, if it rained on Saturday and freezes on Sunday night (which it will, dropping to 24°F), Monday morning on the boardwalk will be a skating rink.
Your Action Plan for the Week:
- Drip the pipes: If you have a summer rental or a beach house that isn't well-insulated, Tuesday night’s low of 14°F is the "danger zone" for frozen pipes.
- Check the Tides: High tide on Saturday is around midday. With the rain and wind, expect some minor splashing near the L Street pier and the usual low spots in the North end.
- Dress for the Wind, Not the Temp: A 35-degree day in Belmar with a 20mph wind is colder than a 20-degree day in the woods. Wear a windbreaker over your wool.
The weather forecast Belmar NJ is looking like a classic Jersey Shore winter rollercoaster. We've got rain, we've got a shot of snow, and then we've got a deep freeze that'll make you wish it was July. Keep an eye on the local barometers—things change fast when you're living on the edge of the Atlantic.
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Next Steps for You: Keep an eye on the Monday morning wind chill values before heading out for a commute; with the projected 14°F low, wind chills could easily dip into the negatives. If you're a local property owner, ensure your outdoor hoses are disconnected before the Tuesday freeze to prevent interior pipe bursts.