You’ve seen the postcards of Carmel-by-the-Sea. White sand, leaning cypress trees, and that "storybook" village vibe that makes everyone want to sell their soul for a tiny cottage on Ocean Avenue. But honestly, if you're checking the weather forecast Carmel CA right now, you’re probably seeing something that looks a bit... chilly.
It’s January 15, 2026. The current temperature is exactly 56°F. It’s a clear Thursday night, and the wind is just a whisper—3 mph coming from the northeast. Most people think California means perpetual summer. They pack flip-flops and tank tops. Then they arrive in Carmel and end up buying a $150 branded sweatshirt because they’re shivering.
The Reality of the Carmel Forecast This Week
Basically, we’re in a stretch of what locals call "good" winter weather. It’s sunny, but it’s not warm.
Tomorrow, Friday, January 16, it’s going to be a bright, sunny day with a high of 68°F and a low of 54°F. That sounds decent, right? But the humidity is hanging around 59%, and once that sun dips behind the Pacific, the "cloudy" night condition will make that 54°F feel much sharper.
Saturday is the outlier. It’s going to be the warmest high of the week at 69°F, but it’ll stay cloudy all day. If you’re planning a walk on Carmel Beach, keep in mind there’s a 10% chance of rain both day and night. It’s not a washout, just a "maybe keep the umbrella in the trunk" kind of day.
Why the Numbers Lie to You
Here is the thing about the weather forecast Carmel CA. The "high" temperature usually only lasts for about two hours in the mid-afternoon.
By Sunday, January 18, we’re back to 65°F. Monday and Tuesday (January 19-20) see us sliding down into the low 60s. By Thursday, January 22, the high drops to 58°F.
- The Wind Factor: On that Thursday, the wind kicks up to 8 mph from the northwest. In a coastal canyon town like this, 8 mph feels like a constant tug on your jacket.
- The UV Surprise: Even when it’s 58°F and "mostly sunny," the UV index is still a 2. You won't burn in ten minutes, but an afternoon at Point Lobos will still give you a pink nose if you isn't careful.
- The Night Shift: Every single night for the next ten days, the temperature stays between 52°F and 58°F. It is remarkably consistent. It’s like the ocean is acting as a giant radiator that refuses to turn off but also refuses to get actually hot.
Packing for the "Secret Season"
If you’re coming down this week, ignore the "sunny" icons. Dress for the 54°F lows, not the 68°F highs.
I’ve seen tourists try to do the 17-Mile Drive in shorts during January. They usually make it to the Lone Cypress, take one photo, and run back to the heater in their car. The northeast wind we're having tonight (3 mph) is actually quite gentle, but as it shifts back to the northwest later in the week, it brings that raw, salt-heavy air straight off the water.
The humidity is also a factor. It’s currently 74%. That means the air is "heavy." Even at 56°F, that moisture gets into your bones. It’s why the fireplaces in all those Carmel boutiques aren’t just for aesthetics—they’re a survival tool.
What to Do This Weekend
Since the forecast for Friday and Monday is pure "sunny," those are your best bets for the outdoors.
Friday (Jan 16) has the lowest humidity of the week at 59%. It’ll be the "crispest" feeling day. Perfect for hiking the North Shore Trail at Point Lobos or finally trying to get a table at La Bicyclette without a three-hour wait.
Saturday (Jan 17) is the day to stay inside. With a 10% rain chance and total cloud cover, the light is going to be flat and grey. It’s the perfect weather for gallery hopping or getting a slow, boozy lunch.
💡 You might also like: Finding Your Way: The Flint Hills Kansas Map Most People Get Wrong
Actionable Tips for Your Visit
- Check the direction: When you see "Wind from the Northwest" (like on Jan 22), the beach will be significantly colder than the shops on Dolores Street.
- Layer, don't bundle: You’ll want a light base, a sweater, and a windproof shell. You will likely take them all off and put them all back on three times before lunch.
- Watch the sunset: Sunset is the "cliff" in Carmel. The temperature doesn't drift down; it drops. If the forecast says 55°F at night, expect to feel that the second the sun disappears.
The weather forecast Carmel CA shows a beautiful, mild winter week ahead. It’s not tropical, but it’s clear, calm, and exactly why people pay way too much to live here. Enjoy the 68°F on Friday—it’s about as good as January gets on the Central Coast.
Next Step: You should check the tide tables for Saturday, January 17, as the 10% rain chance combined with a high tide could make the beach walking area much narrower than usual.