You've probably stepped outside your door in Ballston or Clarendon lately and felt that weird, biting chill that only the Mid-Atlantic can deliver. It’s not just "cold." It is that damp, heavy freezing sensation that makes you question why you didn't move to Florida. Honestly, the weather forecast in arlington va has been a bit of a rollercoaster lately, and if you’re looking at your phone’s default app, you’re likely missing the nuance of how Reagan National Airport (DCA) data actually affects your morning commute on I-66.
The Arlington Microclimate: More Than Just DC’s Neighbor
Most people think Arlington's weather is identical to DC. It’s not. We are tucked right against the Potomac, and that water acts like a thermal battery. It’s why you might see slush in North Arlington while your friend in Alexandria is seeing total rain, or your cousin in Loudoun is digging out of four inches of powder.
Current conditions today, Wednesday, January 14, 2026, show us sitting around 44°F under a thick blanket of clouds. It feels "raw." That’s the technical term we use when the humidity hits 70% but the air is barely above freezing. As we move into tonight, that 53°F high we saw earlier is going to plummet. We’re looking at a low of 32°F. Keep an eye out for a 20% chance of snow flurries late tonight. It’s not going to be a "milk and bread" emergency, but it’ll make the windshields frosty by 7:00 AM.
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What the Models Are Actually Saying for the Week Ahead
The big story isn't today; it’s the dramatic drop coming tomorrow. Thursday is going to be a shock to the system. We’re talking a high of only 31°F. That’s a 20-degree swing in 24 hours. If you’re walking to the Metro, wear the heavy wool coat. The wind is shifting to the west at 15 mph, which means the wind chill will likely stay in the teens all day.
Friday stays gloomy and cold with a high of 37°F. But Saturday? That’s the one to watch. The weather forecast in arlington va is currently flagging a 35% chance of light snow. Since the high is predicted to hit 45°F later that day, it’ll likely start as those big, wet flakes and turn into a messy drizzle by lunch.
Snow Predictions: The Doug Kammerer vs. Almanac Debate
Every winter, Arlingtonians get caught between the "scientific" local TV forecasts and the legendary Old Farmer’s Almanac. This year is particularly spicy. NBC4’s Doug Kammerer has been hinting at a potentially "wild" season due to the La Niña influence, which usually shoves colder Arctic air into the Mid-Atlantic.
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- The Almanac's Take: They predicted a "mostly mild but pockets of wild" winter for the Atlantic Corridor. So far, they’ve been semi-right about the "mild" starts to our weeks.
- The NWS Reality: The National Weather Service is leaning toward slightly above-normal temperatures for the rest of January, but with higher-than-average precipitation.
Basically, expect rain. Lots of it. And when it does get cold enough for snow, it'll probably be that heavy, "heart attack" snow that’s a pain to shovel but great for pictures at Quincy Park.
Surviving the January "Gray-Out"
January is officially the cloudiest month in Arlington. We spend about 51% of the time under overcast skies. It’s "the gray." If you feel like you haven't seen the sun since New Year’s, you aren't crazy. The humidity usually hangs around 67% this time of year, making the cold feel deeper than the thermometer says.
If you are planning outdoor activities, Sunday looks like a "clear" winner despite the cold. We’re expecting a high of 31°F and a low of 22°F, but the skies should finally open up. It’s the perfect day for a brisk walk on the W&OD Trail, provided you’ve got the right base layers.
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The "DCA Effect" on Your Forecast
Here is a pro tip: Most weather apps pull from Ronald Reagan National Airport. Because DCA is right on the water and surrounded by tarmac, it often records temperatures 2-3 degrees warmer than, say, East Falls Church or the hilly parts of North Arlington.
If the weather forecast in arlington va says it's 33°F at the airport, there’s a very high chance your driveway in Yorktown is actually at 30°F. That’s the difference between a wet road and a black ice nightmare.
- Check the "Dew Point" on your app. If it’s close to the temperature, expect fog or frost.
- Look at the wind direction. Southwest winds bring us that "warm" Virginia humidity; Northwest winds bring the "dry" Canadian bite.
- Don't trust a 10-day forecast. In the Mid-Atlantic, anything beyond 4 days is basically a polite guess.
Practical Steps for Arlington Residents This Week
Stop worrying about the "big one" for a second and focus on the immediate reality. Thursday and Tuesday (Jan 20) are going to be the coldest days of the month so far, with highs of 31°F and 26°F respectively.
- Vehicle Prep: Check your tire pressure tonight. Cold snaps make that "Low Pressure" light pop on like clockwork.
- Home Care: If you’re in one of those charming older North Arlington bungalows, make sure your outdoor hoses are disconnected before tomorrow’s 20°F low.
- Commute Planning: Saturday's "light snow" at 35% chance is just enough to make the hilly sections of Military Road slippery. If you don't have to be out before 10:00 AM, don't be.
The weather forecast in arlington va for the end of January shows a return to the mid-40s by the 23rd. We aren't out of the woods yet, but the extreme deep freeze of the next 48 hours is the main hurdle. Stay warm, keep the ice melt near the door, and maybe finally buy that "sun lamp" for the January grays.
Monitor the NWS Ronald Reagan Airport station for the most "official" local data, but always subtract a couple of degrees if you live uphill from the river. This winter is proving to be less about the total inches of snow and more about the constant, grueling swings in temperature that keep us all guessing.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your outdoor faucet covers tonight before the temperature drops to 20°F on Thursday morning. If you're planning to use the Arlington County salt brine services, remember that they typically pretreat primary roads like Glebe and Washington Blvd about 12-24 hours before a predicted frozen precipitation event, so keep an eye out for those white streaks on the pavement starting Friday afternoon.