If you’ve ever stood on the banks of the Mattaponi River in mid-July, you know exactly what the weather in Aylett VA is all about. It’s thick. You don't just breathe the air; you sort of wear it.
Honestly, most folks passing through King William County think they’ve got Virginia weather figured out—hot summers, mild winters, and a bit of rain. But Aylett is a bit of a weird case. Because it sits right in that transition zone between the Piedmont and the Tidewater regions, the microclimate here can be surprisingly moody. One minute you're enjoying a crisp 41°F afternoon in January, and the next, a Southwest wind kicks up at 9 mph, bringing in enough humidity to make the frost feel like a damp sponge.
The January Reality Check
Right now, as of January 16, 2026, we’re looking at a classic winter stretch. Today is actually a pretty decent example of the local see-saw. We’ve got a high of 41°F with plenty of sun, but don’t let that bright sky fool you. Tonight, it’s dropping back down to 20°F.
That’s a 20-degree swing.
In a small town like Aylett, those shifts matter. If you're heading over to the 360 Hardware or grabbing a bite, you start the day in a light jacket and end it wondering why you didn't bring the heavy parka. Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, is looking even weirder—the mercury is climbing to 49°F, but it’s going to be a total gray-out with 50% humidity. It’s that "bone-chilling" dampness that locals talk about, where the air feels colder than the thermometer says it should.
Why Summer Here is a Different Beast
Most weather apps give you a generic "Virginia" forecast. That’s a mistake. In Aylett, the summer humidity—often peaking in August—is influenced heavily by the surrounding wetlands and river systems.
While July sees historical average highs around 91°F or 92°F, the "RealFeel" usually sits much higher. We’re talking triple digits. The dew point in this part of the state often hits the mid-70s. When that happens, your sweat doesn’t evaporate. It just stays there.
- The Mud Factor: Aylett has high clay content in the soil.
- The Rain Spikes: We get these massive 48-hour precipitation events that can dump over an inch of rain, turning the ground "Muddy (Caution)" status within hours.
- The Wind Shift: Summer winds usually crawl in from the Southwest, dragging that Gulf moisture right into our backyards.
The "False Spring" Trap
If you’re a gardener or you’ve got a few acres out toward Manquin or Central Garage, you’ve felt the sting of the "False Spring." This is something the climate data from the Piedmont Master Gardeners highlights quite a bit.
Lately, we’ve seen last-freeze dates creeping up to early April, which sounds great. It's not. It coaxes the dogwoods and the peach trees into budding early. Then, like clockwork, a late-April cold snap hits, and you’ve lost your blossoms for the year. It's a frustrating dance that local farmers know all too well.
Precipitation and the River
Precipitation in Aylett isn't just about whether you need an umbrella. It’s about the river levels. Historically, January is a drier month, but 2026 has been interesting. As of mid-month, the year-to-date rainfall is sitting at about 1.19 inches. That’s actually a bit below the usual 1.37-inch average for this point in the year.
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But watch out for Sunday, January 18. There’s a 25% chance of a rain-snow mix. In this part of Virginia, a "mix" is usually code for "slushy mess on Route 360." Since the ground temperature is hovering around 37°F, anything that falls is going to be heavy, wet, and annoying to shovel.
When Should You Actually Be Here?
If you’re planning a visit or a move, forget the "best of" lists that tell you to come in June. June is a bug-filled sauna.
The real sweet spot? October.
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October in Aylett is basically perfect. You get about 14.4 hours of clear, sunny skies on average—the most of any month. The humidity finally breaks, the mosquitoes take a hike, and the morning fog over the Mattaponi is something you’ve gotta see to believe. The highs sit in the high 60s, and the lows stay above freezing. It’s the only time of year when the weather actually behaves itself.
Actionable Next Steps for Aylett Residents:
- Check your drainage: Given the "Muddy" soil alerts common this time of year, ensure your gutters are clear before the Sunday rain-snow mix hits.
- Winterize late: Since we're seeing a low of 16°F forecast for Monday night (Jan 19), make sure any external pipes are still well-wrapped.
- Monitor the Southwest wind: When the wind shifts SW like it is today, expect a jump in humidity regardless of the temperature.
- Prepare for "The Mix": With temperatures hovering right at 37°F for Sunday’s precipitation, keep salt or sand handy for walkways, as the freeze-thaw cycle will be aggressive.