You see the snow piling up on the TV screen, the wind whipping the goalpost flags into a frenzy, and you think: "Under. Definitely the under." It’s the classic gut reaction for anyone watching weather in the NFL. We’ve been conditioned to believe that a blizzard or a frozen tundra automatically means a 10-6 rock fight.
Honestly? The reality is way weirder.
If you’re looking at a thermometer hitting 15°F and assuming the scoreboard is going to break, you might be in for a surprise. History and hard data suggest that while the weather definitely changes how the game is played, it doesn’t always kill the scoring. Sometimes, it actually helps the offense.
The Wind is the Real Quarterback Killer
Everyone talks about the cold, but wind is the absolute worst enemy for an NFL offense. Cold air is just uncomfortable. Wind is disruptive.
When those gusts hit 15 to 20 mph, things start to get shaky. Quarterbacks lose that "touch" on deep balls. At over 20 mph, the data shows a massive drop-off. We’re talking about a field goal success rate that can tank by 10% or more. Think back to that 2021 Monday Night Football game where the Patriots played the Bills in 40 mph gusts. Mac Jones threw the ball three times. Total. Three.
New England won that game because they realized the air was a "no-fly zone."
Basically, wind creates a "shorter" game. Coaches stop taking shots downfield. They stop trusting their kickers from 45 yards out. This leads to more fourth-down attempts or punts that pin teams deep. If you're tracking weather in the NFL, keep your eye on the flags, not just the thermometer.
Does the Cold Actually Help the Offense?
This is the part that messes with people's heads. You’d think 10-degree weather would make everyone miserable and sluggish.
Actually, between 1994 and 2016, games played below freezing actually saw a slight increase in average points compared to games played in moderate temps. Why? Because while the players are cold, the defenders are also slipping.
It is incredibly hard to play defensive back on a frozen or slick field. The wide receiver knows where he’s going; the defender has to react. If the turf is hard or slippery, that split-second reaction time disappears. One slip from a cornerback and a 5-yard slant turns into a 60-yard touchdown.
- Tackling gets worse: It’s harder to wrap up a ball carrier when your hands are numb and the guy running at you is a 230-pound brick.
- The "LeSean McCoy" Effect: Remember the 2013 "Snow Bowl" between the Lions and Eagles? Eight inches of snow on the ground. Shady McCoy ran for 217 yards because nobody could find their footing to tackle him. The final score was 34-20. That’s 54 points in a blizzard.
- Fatigue: Defensive linemen wear out faster trying to maintain leverage on a bad surface.
The Dome Team Myth
We love the narrative of the "soft" dome team traveling to Green Bay or Buffalo in January and folding like a lawn chair. Statistically, there’s some truth to it, but it’s mostly about the extreme cold.
Teams from domes or warm climates (looking at you, Miami) historically struggle when the temperature drops below 40°F. The Dolphins, for instance, had a rough stretch under Mike McDaniel where they went 0-7 in games below 40 degrees. It’s not just "being cold"—it’s the physiological change.
When it’s truly freezing, your body undergoes vasoconstriction. Your blood moves to your core. Your fingers lose dexterity. For a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa or Jared Goff, who rely on precision and timing, that loss of feel in the fingertips is a massive deal.
However, don't just blindly fade a dome team. Look at the turf. If it's a "fast" track even in the cold, a high-powered offense can still operate. It's when you add rain or slush to the mix that the dome teams really start to slide.
✨ Don't miss: A qué hora juega el Barcelona el domingo: Todo sobre el próximo partido de Liga
Rain vs. Snow: Which Matters More?
Rain is actually more "annoying" for a quarterback than light snow. Rain makes the ball heavy. It makes it slick. Completion percentages typically drop by about 12% in steady rain.
Snow is different. Light snow is basically a non-factor. It looks cool on camera, but NFL players are used to it. It’s only when it becomes "heavy snow"—the stuff that obscures the yard lines—that scoring drops. In those conditions, you see about a 25% decrease in total points.
The biggest factor in the snow? The kicking game.
A 50-yard field goal in the rain has about a 65% chance of going in, compared to 71% in clear weather. In heavy snow, the league-average field goal percentage of 83% can plummet toward 75%. Kickers can’t get a plant foot down, and the ball feels like a rock.
Heat is the Silent Energy Drain
We spend so much time talking about the "Frozen Tundra" that we forget about the "Humid Hell" of early September in Florida.
Extreme heat (over 85°F) actually sees a similar scoring drop-off to extreme cold. It’s about 8%. But the reason is different. In the heat, it’s all about the "Late Game Collapse."
Defenses get gassed in the third quarter. You’ll see a game that is 7-3 at halftime suddenly explode into a 31-28 finish because the players literally can’t run anymore. If you’re watching weather in the NFL, high humidity in places like Jacksonville or Miami can be just as impactful as a January wind in Chicago.
🔗 Read more: United States vs Nepal: What Most People Get Wrong About This Rivalry
Actionable Strategy for the Weather Watcher
If you're trying to figure out how a forecast will actually change Sunday's game, stop looking at the "High/Low" on your weather app and look at these three things instead:
- Sustained Wind over 15 mph: This is the threshold where passing and kicking actually change. Anything less is just a breeze.
- Surface Type: Is it natural grass or FieldTurf? Grass turns into a muddy mess in the rain, which favors the run. Turf stays "fast" but gets slick.
- The "25-Degree" Rule: Data shows that once you get below 25°F, passing efficiency takes a 10-15% hit. Above that, elite QBs usually find a way to make it work.
Don't let the TV broadcast fool you with "pretty" snow shots. Look for the wind and the temperature at field level. Sometimes the "bad" weather is exactly what an offense needs to break a game wide open.
Next Steps for Your Sunday Research
Start by checking the wind gusts specifically, not just the average wind speed, about 90 minutes before kickoff. Use a site like NFLWeather or a dedicated aviation weather app to see if the wind is blowing across the field or down it. If it’s a crosswind over 20 mph, the deep passing game is likely going to be non-existent, and you should adjust your expectations for any receivers who rely on "go" routes or deep posts.