Honestly, if you looked at the Week 11 schedule and thought you had it all figured out, you probably haven't been watching enough football this season. Week 11 in the 2025 NFL season was basically a giant trap designed to ruin your office pool. We had games in Madrid, massive divisional upsets, and some of the weirdest scores we've seen in years.
You've got to respect the chaos.
The biggest mistake people make with a week 11 nfl pick em is assuming that "good" teams just stay good and "bad" teams stay bad. This late in the year, injuries and "the wall" start to hit. Look at the Kansas City Chiefs. They rolled into Denver as 3.5-point favorites and left with a 22-19 loss. If you picked the chalk there, you got burned. Denver is 5-0 at home for a reason, but everyone still sees the Chiefs' logo and hits the "win" button.
Why the Sunday Night Battle Mattered Most
If you were sweating your final picks, the Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles game was the one that probably kept you up. This wasn't just a game; it was a potential NFC Championship preview. Philly walked away with a 16-9 win in a game that felt more like a 1920s mud bowl than a modern track meet.
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The Eagles' defense is just nasty right now. They held Jared Goff and that high-powered Lions offense to zero touchdowns. If you're playing in a pick em league that rewards confidence points, putting a high number on the Lions was a death sentence. Philly is now 8-2 and firmly in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed.
The Madrid Miracle and Other Oddities
Did anyone actually see the Panthers beating the Falcons? Because I didn't.
Carolina was a 3.5-point underdog and somehow managed to sneak out a 30-27 win. Bryce Young threw for over 400 yards. Yes, you read that right. It's those kinds of "wait, what?" performances that make week 11 nfl pick em so frustrating. Meanwhile, across the pond—or rather, in Spain—the Dolphins outlasted the Commanders 16-13 in the first-ever NFL game in Madrid. It wasn't pretty, but a win is a win when you're trying to keep your playoff hopes alive.
Breaking Down the Week 11 Results
If you're tallying up your score, here is how the board actually shook out. No fancy tables here, just the raw facts of who showed up and who didn't.
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- Thursday Night: The Patriots continued their tear, beating the Jets 27-14. Drake Maye looks like a legitimate MVP candidate at this point.
- The Big Blowouts: San Francisco absolutely demolished Arizona 41-22. If you didn't pick the Niners here, what were you even doing?
- The Shocker: Jacksonville didn't just beat the Chargers; they humiliated them 35-6. Trevor Lawrence was efficient, but the Chargers' offense just vanished.
- Divisional Grinds: Baltimore took care of business against Cleveland (23-16), and the Vikings narrowly escaped the Bears (19-17) in a game that featured way too many field goals.
- Monday Night: Dallas handled the Raiders 33-16. It was a somber night as the Cowboys played with heavy hearts following the loss of Marshawn Kneeland, but Dak Prescott stayed surgical.
What to Learn for Next Week
The reality of a week 11 nfl pick em is that you have to look at the "hidden" stats.
Take the Bengals vs. Steelers game. Pittsburgh won 34-12. On paper, it looks like a blowout. But if you dig deeper, you’ll see Cincinnati's defense allowed nearly 300 rushing yards. When a team can't stop the run in November, stop picking them. Period.
Also, pay attention to the home-dog. Denver was a home underdog against KC and won outright. The Giants were a home dog against Green Bay and lost, but they kept it closer than the 7-point spread suggested (27-20).
Actionable Advice for Your Next Slate
- Check the bye weeks. This week, the Colts and Saints were off. Next week, those teams come back fresh while others are dragging.
- Fade the "public" teams. If everyone is talking about how a team is a "lock," that's usually the week they lose to a 3-win divisional rival.
- Trust the defense in cold weather. As we move into late November and December, those high-flying offenses start to sputter. Pick the teams with the better defensive line.
Your next step is to look at the Week 12 opening lines immediately. Don't wait until Thursday. See where the Vegas sharps are moving the money before the public overreacts to these Week 11 scores. If you saw the Chargers get blown out and think they'll lose again next week, you might find a "bounce-back" value that everyone else is missing.