Honestly, if you looked at the week 4 qb ranking consensus a month ago, you’d probably laugh at where we are right now. The NFL has this funny way of making "sure things" look like total guesses by the time October rolls around. We've seen former MVPs looking frantic while certain rookies are suddenly playing like ten-year vets. It’s wild.
Take Josh Allen, for example. He’s basically the gold standard right now. Heading into a Week 4 matchup against the Saints, he’s sitting on seven total touchdowns and hasn't turned the ball over once. That's a "get out of town" stat for a guy who’s historically been a bit of a turnover magnet. But here we are. He’s the undisputed QB1 for most experts, and for good reason.
The Massive Shifts in the Week 4 QB Ranking
The leaderboard is a mess, but in a good way. Justin Herbert has jumped over guys like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes in several power rankings. It’s not just about the stats; it’s the eye test. He’s playing "fully actualized" football. Even with a banged-up run game, he’s delivering lasers on third-and-long like it’s a walkthrough.
Then there’s the Caleb Williams situation. People were ready to write him off after the Lions shellacked the Bears, but then he goes out against Dallas and puts up a QB1 performance. It’s the classic rookie rollercoaster. He’s climbing the boards because he’s finally getting protection—zero sacks last week. If that holds, he’s a top-10 threat every single Sunday.
Why Some Stars are Sliding
- Dak Prescott: He’s in a bit of a tailspin. The Cowboys' offense feels off, and that end-zone interception against the Bears was a massive red flag.
- Patrick Mahomes: He’s still Mahomes, but the "trick-shot artist" vibe has been replaced by a guy trying to force-feed a receiving corps that isn't quite ready for primetime.
- Jordan Love: A rough Week 3 against the Browns’ front has people cautious. He needs to speed up his process or he’s going to keep taking hits.
The "Daniel Jones" Paradox
Can we talk about Daniel Jones for a second? The guy is currently leading the Colts and playing some of the most efficient football of his career. He hasn't averaged fewer than nine yards per pass in a start yet this season. Is it the system? Is it the presence of Jonathan Taylor? Whatever it is, the "Danny Dimes" renaissance is making a lot of preseason rankings look pretty silly. He’s facing a Rams defense this week that has been eating up soft competition, so this is the real litmus test.
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Key Matchups That Define the Board
The week 4 qb ranking isn't just a list of who is "best"—it's about who has the best path to production.
Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are squaring off in a game that usually breaks the internet. Lamar is taking more sacks than you’d like, but his floor is so high because of his rushing. Mahomes, on the other hand, is looking for that deep-ball rhythm. If Xavier Worthy is back and healthy, the Chiefs' offense might finally click back into that 2022 gear.
Over in the NFC, the Eagles vs. Buccaneers game features a fascinating duel between Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield. Hurts is the definition of "rugged over pretty." He just finds a way to win. Mayfield is similar—he’s got this scrappy mobility and a weirdly good connection with the younger receivers that makes him a dangerous "fade" if you're not careful.
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Deep Sleepers and Bench Candidates
- Bo Nix: He missed some wide-open shots last week, but the receivers are getting open. If he hits those, he's a top-12 play against the Bengals.
- Justin Fields: If he clears concussion protocol, the matchup against Miami is a goldmine. The Dolphins have given up the most rushing touchdowns to QBs this year.
- Sam Darnold: He’s basically a gunslinger now. If the O-line gives him three seconds, he’s feeding Jaxon Smith-Njigba all day.
What Most People Get Wrong About Rankings
The biggest mistake is chasing last week’s points. Just because Caleb Williams went nuclear doesn't mean he'll do it again against a Raiders team that limits big plays. You have to look at pressure rates and secondary health. The Cowboys' secondary is currently a "start everyone" zone. They've allowed more fantasy points to QBs than anyone else. That’s why Jordan Love is getting a massive bump this week despite a mediocre Week 3.
Actionable Insights for Your Roster
If you’re looking to optimize your lineup or just understand the landscape, stop looking at the names and start looking at the trenches.
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- Check the Injury Report: If Mike Evans is out for the Bucs, Baker Mayfield’s ceiling drops significantly.
- Look at Scramble Rates: QBs like Justin Herbert and Drake Maye are using their legs more this year than in previous seasons. That "rushing floor" is the secret sauce for a top-5 ranking.
- Don't Fear the Rookies: Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are high-variance, but in a week with several tough defensive matchups for the veterans, they might actually be safer plays.
The landscape is shifting. Old reliable names like Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are being pushed by the "new guard" of mobile, aggressive passers. Keep an eye on the Saturday injury updates, especially for the Commanders and Dolphins, as those could flip the bottom half of the top 20 entirely.