Everything feels pretty chaotic right now. We’re only a year into the second Trump term, and while the headlines are mostly about tariffs and the "Third Term" talk floating around some corners of the GOP, the shadow primary on the other side is already getting loud. Honestly, if you aren't looking at 2028 yet, you’re behind.
The question of what democrat will run in 2028 isn't just a fun parlor game for DC nerds anymore. It’s basically a fight for the soul of a party that’s currently wandering through the wilderness.
Some people think the party is stuck. They look at the 2024 loss and see a lack of leadership. But if you actually look at the governors' mansions and the halls of Congress, there is a massive list of people already measuring the drapes. Some are being subtle. Others, like Gavin Newsom, are about as subtle as a sledgehammer.
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The Heavyweights Everyone Is Talking About
Let’s start with the big names. Gavin Newsom is the obvious one. He basically spent 2025 acting like a shadow president, flying around the world and picking fights with Trump on social media every five minutes. He’s got the hair, the money, and a massive donor network in California that’s already chomping at the bit. But he’s also got the "California baggage." For every voter who loves his progressive stance, there’s someone in a swing state who looks at San Francisco’s cost of living and winces.
Then there’s Kamala Harris. You can’t count her out. Even after losing to Trump in 2024, she’s been dropping hints that she’s "not done." In a recent BBC interview, she basically said service is in her bones. Some donors are tired, sure. But she has name recognition that nobody else can touch. The real drama? The "frenemy" relationship between her and Newsom. They grew up in the same San Francisco political circles, and if they both jump in, it’s going to be a bloodbath.
The Rust Belt Saviors
If the Democrats want to win back those "Blue Wall" states that Trump keeps cracking, they have to look at the governors. Josh Shapiro is the name on everyone’s lips lately.
The guy has a massive approval rating in Pennsylvania, which is arguably the most important state in the country. He’s moderate-ish, he talks about "GSD" (Getting Stuff Done), and he doesn’t sound like he’s lecturing you from a faculty lounge. A Fox News poll from late 2025 even showed him surpassing Newsom in terms of who people think would be the most formidable nominee.
- Gretchen Whitmer: "Big Gretch" is term-limited in Michigan come 2028. She says she’s focused on her job, but she’s also writing books and doing international speeches. She has that "Midwestern nice" but with a backbone of steel.
- Andy Beshear: Winning as a Democrat in Kentucky—three times!—is a miracle. He’s lean, he talks about faith and family, and he doesn’t get bogged down in culture war nonsense. He’s been hanging out in New Hampshire lately, which is a classic "I'm running" move.
- JB Pritzker: The Illinois Governor has the one thing you need to fight a billionaire: even more billions. He’s been a massive donor to the party and has used his own wallet to fund progressive causes.
The "Wildcard" Candidates
Not everyone is a governor. Pete Buttigieg moved to Michigan and is basically waiting in the wings. He’s still the best communicator the party has. When he goes on Fox News and dismantles a host with a smile, the base goes wild. But he’s still answering "I don't know" when asked about his 2028 plans.
And then there's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She’s been touring with Bernie Sanders and has become much more of a "team player" in the House lately. She’s the darling of the younger generation. If the party decides it needs a total revolution rather than a "safe" governor, she’s the one.
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Wes Moore is the one everyone wants to be the next Obama. He’s got the resume—combat vet, Rhodes Scholar, bestselling author. He’s been saying he’s "not running," but that’s what everyone says until they actually file the paperwork. His energy is infectious, and he’s one of the few people who can talk about "patriotism" in a way that feels authentic to Democrats.
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Why 2028 is Different
The 2028 cycle isn't going to be like 2020 or 2024. The party is in a weird spot. They’re dealing with a GOP that is increasingly unified under the Trump-Vance banner. If JD Vance is the Republican nominee—which looks likely according to current polling—the Democrats need someone who can counter that "populist" energy.
The debate is basically this: Do you go with a "fighter" like Newsom who will go toe-to-toe on every cultural issue? Or do you go with a "healer" like Beshear or Shapiro who tries to lower the temperature?
Most voters are exhausted. They want someone who can talk about the price of eggs without it becoming a 20-minute lecture on macroeconomics. This is why the governors are so strong right now. They actually have to balance budgets. They have to fix roads. They live in the "real world," as Shapiro likes to say.
What to Watch for Next
If you’re trying to figure out what democrat will run in 2028, keep your eye on the 2026 midterms. That’s the real proving ground.
Anyone who spends 2026 campaigning for other candidates, raising money for the DGA (Democratic Governors Association), or showing up in Des Moines and Manchester is definitely in.
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Pay attention to:
- The DNC Chair race: Who the party picks to lead will tell you which faction is winning.
- Fundraising PACs: Look at Newsom’s "Campaign for Democracy" or Pritzker’s spending. Follow the money.
- The "Blue Wall" polling: If Shapiro and Whitmer keep their high approval ratings in GOP-leaning areas, they become almost impossible to ignore.
It’s a long road to November 2028. The field is crowded, the stakes are high, and the "frenemy" drama is just beginning. But one thing is for sure: the bench is much deeper than the doomers want you to believe.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep a close watch on the 2026 midterm results, specifically the margin of victory for Democratic governors in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. These numbers will likely dictate the frontrunner status heading into the 2027 primary announcements. Additionally, monitor the upcoming DNC rules meetings regarding the primary calendar; if South Carolina remains the first state, it significantly favors candidates with strong ties to the established party base.