If you’ve been watching the news lately, it feels like we’re back in 2018. The headlines are screaming about a renewed trade war, and honestly, it’s enough to make anyone’s head spin. But while the U.S. side is loud—full of Truth Social posts and immediate executive orders—the message from the other side is a bit more... calculated. So, what is China saying about tariffs right now in early 2026?
They aren't just screaming back. They're playing a completely different game.
Basically, Beijing is leaning into this "defender of free trade" persona. It sounds a bit ironic, I know. But if you listen to Mao Ning, the foreign ministry spokesperson, her recent lines are consistent: "There are no winners in a tariff war." It's a classic Beijing trope. They want the world to see them as the stable adult in the room while Washington throws haymakers.
The "No Winners" Narrative Meets 2026 Reality
On January 13, 2026, things got spicy again. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran. Since China buys about 77% of Iran's oil, this was a direct shot across the bow. China’s response? They’re going to "resolutely safeguard" their interests.
That phrase "resolutely safeguard" is diplomat-speak for "we’re going to hit back, but we’ll pick the spot."
Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in D.C., was even more blunt on X (formerly Twitter). He basically said that coercion and pressure won't solve anything. Protectionism, in his view, just hurts everyone. But here’s the thing: while they say protectionism is bad, they’re busy building their own fortress.
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What Is China Saying About Tariffs Behind the Scenes?
Don't let the "peace and harmony" talk fool you. Beijing is moving fast.
They just released the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan. It’s a massive document, but the gist is this: China is slashing tariffs on 935 items. They’re making it cheaper for companies to bring in high-tech components, "black mass" (that’s recycled battery material), and advanced medical gear.
Why? Because they want to be self-reliant.
They’ve realized they can’t count on the U.S. or even some European markets anymore. So, they’re opening the door wide for things they need to build their own tech empire, while keeping the walls high for things they can make themselves. It’s a "two-speed" strategy. One foot on the gas for tech imports, one foot on the brake for everything else.
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The Trillion-Dollar Elephant in the Room
Just this week, China reported a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus for 2025.
That is an insane number. It basically proves that despite all the tariffs Trump threw at them last year—which at one point hit a staggering 125% on some goods—China’s export machine didn't just survive. It thrived.
They did this by pivoting. If the U.S. puts up a wall, China just sells to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Their exports to Africa were up 26% last year. They’re basically telling the U.S., "We’d love to trade with you, but we don't need you as much as we used to."
The "Taco Trade" and the Great Truce of 2025
You might remember the "Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement" from last October. It was supposed to be the "historic" deal that ended the 2025 tariff spike.
Under that deal, China agreed to:
- Buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans every year through 2028.
- Stop messing with rare earth export controls (for now).
- Lower their retaliatory tariffs back to around 10%.
In exchange, the U.S. suspended those massive 100%+ tariffs. It was a fragile truce. But as we see with the new Iran-related threats, that truce is currently being held together by duct tape and hope.
Is China Retaliating?
Usually, they wait. They like to see the actual implementation before they fire back.
But we already saw their playbook in early 2025. When the U.S. hiked rates, China hit back on U.S. coal, LNG, and agricultural machinery. They even put "unreliable entity" labels on U.S. biotech companies.
If the new 25% "Iran-business" tariff actually happens, expect China to reach for the "rare earth" lever. They control roughly 87% of the world's rare earth refinery output. If they shut that off, the U.S. defense and EV industries have a very bad day.
What This Means for Your Business
If you’re importing from or exporting to China, 2026 is going to be a year of "selective decoupling."
What is China saying about tariffs to businesses? They’re encouraging "high-quality development." In plain English, if you make something high-tech that they can't build yet, they want you. They’ll lower the tariffs to get you in. If you make something they already have an oversupply of (like basic EVs or steel), they’re going to make your life difficult.
Actionable Insights for 2026:
- Watch the "Secondary" Tariffs: The biggest threat right now isn't a direct U.S.-China tax; it’s the "anyone doing business with [X]" tariffs. If your supply chain touches Iran or Russia, you're in the crosshairs.
- Diversify, but don't dump: China’s 2026 tariff cuts on 935 items mean there are actually new opportunities to sell specific high-tech and medical goods into their market at lower costs.
- Monitor the 15th Five-Year Plan: This just started. It’s China's roadmap for the next half-decade. They are prioritizing "new quality productive forces"—think robots, bio-aviation fuel, and chips.
- Check the "Market-Based" Exclusions: China has extended its tariff exclusion process through the end of 2026. If you're paying a retaliatory tariff, you might actually be able to apply for a waiver if your product is deemed "necessary" for their development.
The bottom line? China is saying that they want stability, but their actions show they are preparing for a world where the U.S. is no longer their primary partner. They are building a "Global South" trade bloc that is increasingly insulated from Washington's moves.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Audit your supply chain for any links to Iran-related trade to avoid the new 25% U.S. "secondary" tariffs.
- Review the China 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan list to see if your products qualify for the new lower "provisional" rates.
- Track the APEC Summit scheduled for November 2026 in Shenzhen; this is where the next major Xi-Trump meeting is expected to happen.