Honestly, if you're looking for a simple number, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.18% as of mid-January 2026. Some lenders like Zillow are even flashing rates as low as 5.87% for buyers with pristine credit.
But here’s the thing. That "national average" you see on the news? It’s kinda like the average temperature of the entire United States—it doesn't tell you whether you specifically need a coat or a swimsuit.
Mortgage rates are weird right now. We just came out of a 2025 that felt like a financial rollercoaster. The Federal Reserve chopped its benchmark rate three times late last year, landing us in a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. You’d think mortgage rates would have plummeted in response, right? Nope. They actually ticked up slightly in some weeks because the bond market is a nervous wreck about what the new Fed Chair will do when Jerome Powell steps down this May.
What is the interest rate on houses right now across different loans?
If you’re shopping today, January 13, 2026, you aren't just looking at one number. You're looking at a menu of options that vary wildly based on how much risk the bank thinks you are.
- 30-Year Fixed: This is the big one. Most people are locking in between 6.16% and 6.24%.
- 15-Year Fixed: If you can stomach the higher monthly payment, you’re looking at much better deals, often around 5.46% to 5.52%.
- FHA Loans: These are sitting near 6.11%. Great for lower down payments, but watch the insurance premiums.
- VA Loans: If you served, you're looking at roughly 6.41%, though some specialized lenders are dipping into the high 5s.
- Jumbo Loans: For the big spenders, these are averaging 6.42%.
State lines matter too. In California or Texas, you might see averages closer to 5.87%, while New York is often dragging behind at 6.25%. It's a mess.
Why didn't my rate drop when the Fed cut rates?
This is what most people get wrong. The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates. They set the "overnight rate"—the interest banks charge each other to lend money for 24 hours. Mortgages are 30-year commitments.
Investors who buy mortgage-backed securities care more about the 10-year Treasury yield and long-term inflation. If they think inflation is going to stay "sticky" at 2.8%, they demand a higher return. That’s why we’re seeing this weird "new normal" where rates stay above 6% even when the Fed is trying to play nice.
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The 2026 Forecast: Will they ever go back to 3%?
Short answer: No.
Longer answer: Probably not in our lifetime, unless there's another global catastrophe.
Experts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are mostly clustered around the same prediction for the rest of 2026. They expect a "gentle drift" downward.
Fannie Mae is the optimist in the room, predicting we might hit 5.9% by the end of December 2026. Meanwhile, the MBA is much more conservative, betting that we stay stuck at 6.4% because of persistent housing shortages and high insurance costs.
Wait. Why would rates stay high if home sales are slow?
Because of the "lock-in effect." Millions of homeowners are sitting on 3% rates from 2021. They aren't moving unless they absolutely have to. This keeps inventory low, which keeps prices high, which makes lenders less desperate to cut rates to attract new business.
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Real Talk on Refinancing
If you bought a house in late 2023 or 2024 when rates were pushing 7.5% or 8%, you're probably itching to refinance.
Refi rates are currently averaging about 6.54% for a 30-year term.
Is it worth it?
Most experts, like Matt Schulz at LendingTree, suggest you wait for a "1% rule." If you can’t drop your rate by at least a full percentage point, the closing costs might eat your savings. If you’re at 7.8% and can get 6.1%, pull the trigger. If you’re at 6.8%, you might want to hold out a few more months to see if we break into the 5s.
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How to actually get the lowest rate possible today
Stop looking at the national average. It's a distraction. Your personal "economy" matters more than the Fed.
- Check your credit like a hawk. A score of 740+ is the "golden ticket" in 2026. If you're at 680, you might pay 0.5% more in interest than your neighbor. That’s tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
- Compare APR, not just the rate. The "Interest Rate" is the raw cost. The "APR" includes the fees and points. If a lender offers you 5.8% but charges $10,000 in points, you're getting fleeced.
- Look at 20-year options. Everyone forgets these exist. They often bridge the gap between the low rates of a 15-year and the lower payments of a 30-year. Right now, 20-year fixed rates are averaging around 5.98%.
What to do next
If you are serious about buying, your first step isn't browsing Zillow—it's getting a "Loan Estimate" from at least three different types of lenders (a big bank, a credit union, and an online lender).
Don't just take their word for it on the phone. Ask for the formal document. The market is moving fast, and with a potential new Fed Chair coming in May, the "stability" we have right now might be the best window you get all year. Shop your rate today, find your baseline, and be ready to lock if the 10-year Treasury yield takes a dip.