Waking up and wondering what is the rain chances for today usually leads to a quick glance at a phone app that says "10%" or "80%." But honestly, those numbers are often misunderstood. Most people think a 40% chance of rain means there’s a 40% chance they’ll get wet, but meteorologists actually calculate this using a specific formula called the Probability of Precipitation (PoP).
It’s basically the confidence that rain will fall in a certain area multiplied by the percentage of that area expected to see rain. So, if a forecaster is 100% sure it will rain, but only over 40% of the city, you get a 40% chance. This is why you might stay bone-dry while your friend three miles away is stuck in a downpour.
What is the Rain Chances for Today Across the Country?
Today, Friday, January 16, 2026, the weather story is split between a deep freeze in the North and a transitioning wet pattern in the South. In the United States at large, the current conditions are sitting at a frigid 10°F, though it feels more like 0°F thanks to a 7 mph wind coming from the west. If you're looking for rain, you might be looking at the wrong kind of moisture. The current precipitation chance is a measly 1%, and it's actually in the form of snow.
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Here is the breakdown of what the skies look like for the rest of today:
- Daytime: Expect mostly cloudy skies. The chance of precipitation stays low at 10%, mostly as light snow flurries rather than rain.
- Temperature High: We are looking at a high of 20°F, so definitely not warm enough for traditional rain.
- Nighttime: The chance of snow bumps up to 20% as we head into the evening.
- Wind: Expect it to pick up a bit, reaching 15 mph from the northwest.
If you're in the Southeast, particularly around Alabama or Georgia, things are a bit different. Forecasters there are watching a system that brings "showers" into the northwestern parts of the state this evening. While the day started dry and even sunny for many, that southerly flow is pulling in moisture. In places like Cobb County, the day is sunny with a high of 50°F, but the rain chances jump to 70% after midnight. It’s that classic "calm before the storm" scenario.
Why Winter Rain is So Hard to Predict
Predicting rain in January is a nightmare for meteorologists. A shift of just two degrees can turn a cold rain into a traffic-snarling icy mix or a full-blown snowstorm. In Tennessee today, areas like Knoxville and Nashville are seeing highs in the 40s and 50s with rain and drizzle expected this afternoon. However, as the sun goes down and the temperature drops to 31°F, that rain is forecasted to transition into a rain/snow mix.
The Regional Breakdown: Who Needs an Umbrella?
Honestly, if you're in the mid-Atlantic or the Northeast, you’re dealing with "lake effect" moisture. In the Finger Lakes region of New York, they aren't even talking about rain; it’s all about snow showers that are becoming "constant companions" for the rest of the month.
Down in Florida, specifically Marion County, the rain chances are holding off until Saturday night. Today is actually quite nice—sunny with a high near 57°F—though the "wind chill" early this morning made it feel like 26°F. It's a reminder that even when the rain chance is zero, the weather can still bite.
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Actionable Insights for Your Friday
Since the forecast for "what is the rain chances for today" can shift by the hour, here is how to handle the uncertainty:
- Check the Hourly Trend: A 60% daily chance often means a 100% chance for two hours and 0% for the rest. Check your local "radar" rather than just the daily icon.
- Watch the Dew Point: If you see the dew point rising along with the temperature, the air is getting more "juicy." That’s a signal that rain or snow is becoming more likely even if the sky looks clear now.
- Prepare for the "Transition": If you are in the Tennessee Valley or the Deep South, today's rain will likely turn to ice or snow overnight. Get your errands done before 6:00 PM.
The "United States" forecast currently shows a low-temperature low of 2°F for tonight. With a 20% chance of snow after dark, any moisture on the roads from earlier in the day will likely flash-freeze. Stay safe out there and keep an eye on those northwest winds.