When people ask how much did Biden win by in 2020, they usually want a quick number. But honestly, the 2020 election wasn't just one number. It was a massive, sprawling event that felt different depending on whether you were looking at the massive crowds in the cities or the quiet, high-stakes counting rooms in the suburbs. If you want the "short version," Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 7,059,526 votes in the popular vote. That’s a lot of people—roughly the entire population of Arizona.
But as any political junkie knows, the popular vote doesn't actually put you in the Oval Office.
The "real" win happened in the Electoral College. There, Biden secured 306 votes to Trump’s 232. If that 306 number sounds familiar, it's because it’s the exact same margin Trump won by in 2016 (though Trump’s final count was 304 due to faithless electors). It’s a weirdly poetic symmetry in American politics.
The Popular Vote vs. The Electoral College
Let's look at the raw data. Biden pulled in 81,283,501 votes. That is the most votes ever cast for a presidential candidate in the history of the United States. Period. Trump also broke records, getting 74,223,975 votes, which was more than any incumbent had ever received.
Percentage-wise, it wasn't a "landslide" in the traditional sense, like Reagan in '84, but it was decisive.
- Joe Biden: 51.3%
- Donald Trump: 46.8%
That 4.5% gap might not sound huge when you’re talking about a grocery discount, but in a polarized country, it's a significant chasm. It was the first time a challenger defeated an incumbent president since Bill Clinton took down George H.W. Bush back in 1992.
Where the Election Was Actually Won
You can have 7 million more votes than the other guy and still lose. Just ask Hillary Clinton. To understand how much did Biden win by in 2020, you have to look at the "tipping point" states. These are the places where the margin was so thin you could practically feel the tension through the TV screen.
Basically, Biden flipped five states that Trump had won in 2016. These were the "Blue Wall" states in the Rust Belt—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—plus two traditionally "red" states in the Sun Belt: Arizona and Georgia.
The margins in these places were razor-thin:
- Georgia: Biden won by 11,779 votes (0.24%).
- Arizona: Biden won by 10,457 votes (0.31%).
- Wisconsin: Biden won by 20,682 votes (0.63%).
If you add those up, the margin that actually decided the presidency was about 43,000 votes spread across three states. Out of more than 155 million votes cast nationwide, that’s almost nothing. It’s like a packed baseball stadium deciding the fate of the entire country.
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Why These Specific Margins Matter
The reason people still debate the 2020 victory margin is because of how "efficient" the votes were. Biden’s 7-million-vote lead was largely driven by huge turnouts in deep-blue states like California and New York. In California alone, Biden beat Trump by over 5 million votes.
But while those millions of votes helped the popular vote total look impressive, they didn't help him win the Electoral College. He already had California in the bag. The "real" victory was found in the 81,669-vote margin in Pennsylvania or the narrow lead in Michigan.
Breaking Down the Demographics
So, who actually shifted the needle? According to data from the Pew Research Center, Biden made significant gains in the suburbs. That was the "secret sauce."
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- Suburban Voters: Biden won 54% of suburbanites. In 2016, Hillary Clinton only got 45%.
- Independent Voters: Biden won this group by about 13 points.
- The Youth Vote: Voters under 30 went for Biden by a 24-point margin.
Interestingly, Trump actually improved his standing with some groups, specifically Hispanic men and rural voters. He grew his share of the rural vote from 59% in 2016 to 65% in 2020. This tug-of-war is why the map looked so familiar yet so different.
The Context of History
Is a 306-232 win "big"? It depends on who you ask.
In the context of the last 20 years, it’s a solid win. It’s the same margin Trump called a "landslide" in 2016. However, it’s smaller than Obama’s 365 votes in 2008 or George H.W. Bush’s 426 in 1988.
We live in an era of "trench warfare" politics. Neither side seems able to break away for a massive, 40-state blowout anymore. The 2020 result was a reflection of a country split almost perfectly down the middle, with a tiny sliver of suburbanites in the Midwest and Southwest acting as the ultimate referees.
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Actionable Insights for Following Future Elections
Understanding the 2020 margins gives you a roadmap for how to watch future elections. Don't get distracted by the national popular vote numbers you see on the screen early in the night. They're often misleading because of how different states count their mail-in ballots.
- Watch the "Tipping Point": Focus on the state that provides the 270th electoral vote. In 2020, that was Wisconsin.
- Ignore the "Red Mirage" or "Blue Shift": Because of how mail-in ballots are processed, one candidate might look like they're winning by a lot early on, only for the margin to evaporate as different types of votes are tallied.
- Check the County Level: If you want to know if a candidate is actually overperforming, look at the "swing counties" like Maricopa in Arizona or Erie in Pennsylvania. Those tell the real story.
The answer to how much did Biden win by in 2020 is both "a lot" (7 million votes) and "hardly anything" (43,000 votes in key spots). Both things are true at the same time. That’s just the weird, complicated reality of how we pick a president.
To stay informed on current election data and historical trends, always refer to official sources like the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or the National Archives, which maintain the certified tallies of the Electoral College. Checking non-partisan analytical sites like the Cook Political Report can also provide the "why" behind these narrow margins.