If you’ve checked the price of a new truck or even a kitchen remodel lately, you’ve probably felt the phantom sting of a customs agent’s stamp. Honestly, the trade world has been moving so fast since early 2025 that even the pros are getting whiplash. We aren't just talking about a few "trade wars" anymore. It is a full-scale overhaul of how things cross the border.
Right now, as we sit in mid-January 2026, the landscape is a messy mix of broad baseline duties and very specific "targeted" strikes. It's complex.
The Big Picture: What Tariffs Are in Place Now?
Basically, the U.S. has moved to a "Reciprocal" model. The core idea—which the administration pushed hard throughout 2025—is that if a country charges us a certain percentage to import our stuff, we charge them the same back. If they don't have a specific deal with us, most countries are currently facing a 10% to 20% baseline tariff on almost everything.
But that’s just the floor.
The real action is in the "emergencies." Most of the heavy-hitting duties you're seeing at the port right now were triggered under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The government basically declared that things like the fentanyl crisis and massive trade deficits are national security threats, allowing them to bypass the usual long-winded Congressional debates and slap on duties overnight.
The China Situation: A Fragile Peace
China is... well, it’s a lot. You might remember the chaos of 2025, but things have shifted into a weird kind of "managed tension."
As of January 2026, the China-origin fentanyl-related tariffs were actually lowered to 10% back in late 2025 as part of a temporary trade truce. It isn't a total win for importers, though. The older Section 301 tariffs—the ones covering everything from solar panels to syringes—are still very much alive.
Here is the breakdown of what you're paying on Chinese goods today:
- Electric Vehicles: Still at a staggering 100%.
- Solar Cells: Locked in at 50%.
- Semiconductors: A heavy 50% duty remains.
- Medical Gear: Many items like syringes are still at 100%, though some face-mask duties were tweaked on January 1, 2026, to hit 50%.
Interestingly, a lot of the scheduled "reciprocal" hikes for China were actually delayed until November 10, 2026. So, for now, we are in a holding pattern while both sides wait to see who blinks first.
Mexico and Canada: The USMCA Shuffle
If you're importing from our neighbors, it’s all about the USMCA.
Most goods that qualify under the "rules of origin" (meaning they are actually made there, not just shipped through) are still coming in at 0%. However, it isn't a free-for-all. Since March 2025, a specific "fentanyl and migration" tariff has been hitting non-exempt goods.
Specifically:
- Potash and Energy: Generally face a 10% duty.
- General Goods: If they don't meet strict USMCA requirements, they’re getting hit with 25% to 35%.
Canada actually fought back with their own surtaxes on U.S. steel and aluminum, but they repealed most of those in late 2025. It’s a game of chicken that changes by the month.
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The "Security" Duties: Steel, Aluminum, and Chips
The Section 232 tariffs—the ones based on "national security"—are the ones hitting your local construction site or car dealership the hardest.
Steel and Aluminum are currently sitting at a global 50% rate for most countries. If you're importing from the United Kingdom, you're lucky; they have a cap that keeps them around 25%. The EU and Japan also have deals that generally cap the total duty at 15%.
But the biggest news for January 2026 is the Semiconductor Tariff. As of January 15, 2026, a new 25% duty kicked in on high-performance logic chips and the machines that make them. This applies to everyone. It doesn't matter if the chip comes from Taiwan or Timbuktu—if it hits a certain performance threshold, the government wants its cut.
The Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet "Stay of Execution"
For anyone in the middle of a home renovation, there was a bit of a sigh of relief on New Year's Day.
The government had planned to hike the tariff on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered furniture to 30% on January 1. At the last second, they issued a proclamation keeping it at 25% for all of 2026.
Why? Most experts think it’s a "softening" move ahead of the 2026 mid-term elections. Raising the price of a sofa by another 5% right before people head to the polls isn't exactly great optics.
The "De Minimis" Loophole is Dead
If you’re used to ordering cheap stuff from overseas apps and not paying a dime in taxes, those days are over.
The U.S. officially ended de minimis duty-free treatment for most shipments in 2025. This was the rule that let you bring in anything under $800 without paying a tariff. Now, even that $20 t-shirt from a global e-commerce site is technically subject to the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff.
What to Watch: The Supreme Court Factor
Here is the thing: a lot of what we just talked about is currently being argued in court.
The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether the President actually has the power to use the IEEPA law to slap tariffs on everything from Canadian timber to Chinese toys. Multiple lower courts have already said, "Hey, you've gone too far."
If the Supreme Court rules against the administration later this spring, we could see a massive wave of refunds. Billions of dollars. But don't hold your breath—the government is already looking at Section 232 as a backup plan to keep those rates high even if they lose the IEEPA fight.
Actionable Steps for Businesses and Consumers
Navigating what tariffs are in place now isn't just for trade lawyers anymore. It affects your bottom line.
- Check the "Country of Melt": If you’re buying metal products, "Made in Mexico" isn't enough. You need to know where the metal was melted and poured. If it was melted in China and shaped in Mexico, you’re likely paying the full China rate.
- Audit Your HTS Codes: The government updated the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HSU 2543) on January 1, 2026. A code that worked in December might be obsolete now. Misclassifying goods is the fastest way to get a massive fine from CBP.
- Wait on Big Purchases: If you can delay buying high-tariff items like certain heavy machinery or high-end electronics, wait until the Supreme Court issues its IEEPA ruling (likely by June 2026). A ruling against the government could lead to a sudden, albeit temporary, price drop.
- Look for "P" and "S" Codes: When importing from USMCA or CAFTA-DR countries, ensure your broker is using the correct Special Program Indicators. Missing a single letter on a form can cost you 25% in unnecessary duties.
The "Year of Enforcement" is here. The Department of Justice has already signaled that 2026 will see a massive crackdown on "tariff evasion"—basically, companies trying to pretend their Chinese goods are actually from Vietnam. It’s a high-stakes game, and the rules are written in shifting sand.