Honestly, if you're trying to figure out when do new tariffs start, you aren't alone. It’s a mess. One day you're reading about a trade deal, and the next, a social media post from the President flips the script. Just this weekend, specifically Sunday, January 18, 2026, the landscape shifted again with the "Greenland Tariffs" threat against Europe.
Trade wars used to be slow. Now? They move at the speed of a push notification.
If you’re a business owner or just someone tired of seeing the price of milk and electronics jump, you need the actual timeline. Not the political spin. Not the "maybe" dates. You need the hard "effective as of" dates that are hitting your wallet right now.
The Immediate Wave: February 1, 2026, and Beyond
The most pressing date on the calendar is February 1, 2026. This is the kickoff for the newly announced 10% tariffs on a specific group of European nations—Denmark, France, Germany, the UK, and others. If a "deal" isn't reached, those rates are scheduled to climb to 25% by June 1, 2026.
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It sounds like a movie plot, but it's the current reality of U.S. trade policy.
But wait. There's more.
We’re also living through the "Phase Two" effects of the 2025 rollout. While some headlines suggest a "truce" with China, the reality is that many of these duties are already baked into the system. For instance, if you're importing steel or aluminum, you're likely already paying a 50% rate that went into effect back in June 2024 and was solidified throughout 2025.
Key Dates for Your Calendar
- January 31, 2026: This is a big one for manufacturers. The remission for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel used in food packaging and agricultural production is set to expire. Basically, the "grace period" ends.
- February 1, 2026: New 10% tariffs begin on select EU countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland).
- June 1, 2026: The scheduled "escalation date" where that 10% jumps to 25% if negotiations stall.
- November 10, 2026: The current expiration date for the suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on China. This is the "truce" deadline.
Why the "Start Date" Is Often a Lie
You see a date in the news. You think, "Okay, I have until then to buy my new laptop."
Wrong.
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The markets don't wait for the law to change. They front-run it. We saw this throughout 2025—imports surged before the tariffs hit, which actually caused a mini-shipping crisis. Then, as soon as the tariffs went "live," prices didn't just go up by the tariff amount; they jumped higher because of supply chain "friction."
Retailers like Walmart and Target often have 3 to 6 months of inventory. This is why you might not see a price hike on February 2nd for something that was tariffed on February 1st. But once that "pre-tariff" stock is gone? That’s when the "sticker shock" happens. According to recent data from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the effective tariff rate—the actual tax being paid—has climbed from about 2% to over 11% in just a year.
That is a massive jump.
The Supreme Court Wildcard
There is a massive "if" hanging over all of this. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the President’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to bypass Congress and set these rates.
If the Court rules the tariffs are unconstitutional in early 2026, the "start date" for many of these could actually become an "end date." J.P. Morgan analysts have noted that a ruling against the administration could force the government to refund billions.
But don't hold your breath.
The administration has already hinted at using "Section 122" or other legal avenues to keep the 15% baseline alive even if IEEPA falls. In trade law, there’s always a Plan B.
What This Means for Your Business
If you're wondering when do new tariffs start because you're trying to price out a contract, look at the "In-Transit" clauses. Usually, goods that are already "loaded onto their final mode of transit" before 12:01 a.m. on the effective date are exempt.
But "loaded" is a technical term. A container sitting on a dock doesn't always count.
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Actionable Steps to Take Now
- Check your HS Codes: The government doesn't just tariff "stuff from Germany." They tariff specific Harmonized System (HS) codes. If your product is misclassified, you might be paying 25% when you should be paying 0%.
- Audit Your Supply Chain: Can you source from a country not on the "hit list"? Many companies moved production to Vietnam or India in 2025, though even those countries are now facing "reciprocal" tariff threats of 15-20%.
- Review Contracts: Ensure your "Force Majeure" or "Price Adjustment" clauses actually cover sudden government-imposed duties. If they don't, you're the one eating the cost.
- Watch the "De Minimis" Rule: The $800 exemption for small packages is essentially dead. If you're a small e-commerce seller, you need to factor in duties even for tiny shipments starting now.
The era of "set it and forget it" trade is over. The "start date" is just the beginning of the headache. Stay agile, watch the Federal Register, and maybe keep a close eye on the Supreme Court docket this spring.
Immediate Next Steps:
- Verify the specific HS codes for your top three most expensive imports.
- Contact your customs broker to confirm if any of your current shipments fall under the "in-transit" exemption for the February 1st deadline.
- Evaluate your current inventory levels to determine exactly when "pre-tariff" stock will run out, allowing you to time your next price adjustment.