It is the first week of a new quarter and the entire stock market is basically holding its breath. If you've been around the block with TSLA, you know the drill. Everyone is refreshing their feeds, waiting for that one specific PDF to drop on the Investor Relations site.
But when does Tesla report deliveries exactly?
The short answer: Tesla almost always reports its quarterly vehicle production and delivery numbers within the first three days of a new quarter.
If the quarter ends on March 31, you're looking at an announcement on April 1, 2, or 3. They don't stick to a rigid 9:00 AM clock, though. Sometimes it’s a pre-market surprise that sends the stock into a frenzy before the opening bell. Other times, they wait until after the market closes, or even drop it on a quiet Saturday morning if the calendar aligns that way.
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Honestly, the pattern is consistent enough to set your watch by, but just weird enough to keep you guessing.
The Typical Reporting Schedule for 2026
Tesla operates on a standard calendar year, divided into four quarters. Because they don't do monthly sales reports like some old-school automakers, these quarterly drops are high-stakes.
- Q1 (January–March): Expect the report between April 1 and April 3.
- Q2 (April–June): Look for numbers between July 1 and July 3.
- Q3 (July–September): The drop usually hits between October 1 and October 3.
- Q4 (October–December): This one always lands right after the New Year, typically January 2 or 3.
For example, on January 2, 2026, Tesla released its Q4 2025 results right on cue. They reported 418,227 deliveries for that final stretch of the year. It missed the analyst "consensus" by a few thousand cars, and you could practically hear the collective sigh (and the frantic typing of bloggers) across the internet.
The company is pretty predictable with these windows. They want the news out fast. Why? Because these numbers are the "pulse" of the company. Before the complex math of profit margins and carbon credits comes out in the full earnings call—which usually happens about three weeks later—deliveries tell the world if people are actually buying the cars.
Why the Delivery Report is Different from Earnings
A lot of folks get these two events mixed up. You'll see someone on a forum asking when the "report" is out, and half the people are talking about cars delivered while the other half are talking about net income.
The delivery report is just a snapshot. It’s a brief press release. It tells you two main things: how many cars were built and how many were handed over to customers. It usually breaks these down into categories like "Model 3/Y" and "Other Models" (which includes the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck).
The earnings report is the heavy hitter. That’s the 50-page slide deck and the conference call where Elon Musk or the CFO discusses the actual money. For Q4 2025, that financial report is confirmed for January 28, 2026.
Does the Day of the Week Matter?
Actually, yeah.
If the 1st of the month falls on a Sunday, don't expect much. Tesla tends to prefer business days, but they aren't strictly opposed to holiday weekend drops. They’ve released numbers on Easter Sunday before. They’ve released them on the 2nd of January while people were still nursing New Year’s hangovers.
Generally, if you haven't seen the numbers by the end of the third day of the month, something is probably wrong—or they’re just being fashionably late to double-check the China data.
What "Deliveries" Actually Means to Tesla
This is a nuance that trips up a lot of new investors. In Tesla-land, a delivery doesn't count the second a car rolls off the assembly line in Austin or Shanghai.
A vehicle is only "delivered" once it is transferred to the customer and all the paperwork is basically perfect. Tesla is famous for its "end-of-quarter push." You might have seen videos of delivery centers looking like chaotic beehives on the 30th of June or the 31st of December.
That’s because if a car is sitting in a parking lot ten feet away from a customer at midnight on the last day of the quarter, and the customer hasn't signed for it yet? It doesn't count. It’s "inventory."
This creates a massive logistical headache. But for us watching from the outside, it means the number they report is a very strict reflection of completed sales, not just "shipped" units like Ford or GM might report to dealerships.
The "Consensus" Trap
When you're waiting for the report, you'll hear the word "consensus" a lot. This is basically the average guess of a bunch of Wall Street analysts.
For the Q4 2025 report, the consensus was around 422,850 vehicles. When Tesla reported 418,227, the stock reacted because they "missed."
It’s sorta silly when you think about it. The company grew, or stayed stable, but because they didn't hit a number a guy in a suit in New York guessed, the news headlines scream "failure."
How to Track the Real Numbers Early
If you don't want to wait for the press release, there are a few "whisper" numbers people track.
- China Registration Data: Every week, we get insurance registration data from China. Since Giga Shanghai is a huge part of the pie, you can usually see a trend forming weeks before the quarter ends.
- European Registration Data: Countries like Norway and the Netherlands report daily or weekly.
- Troy Teslike: There is an independent researcher on X (formerly Twitter) who has made a whole career out of predicting these numbers with uncanny accuracy. Most serious Tesla watchers check his estimates before the official report.
Looking Ahead to Q1 2026
Right now, the vibe for the next report—the Q1 2026 numbers due in early April—is a bit tense.
Predictive markets like Polymarket are already showing a lot of bearish sentiment. Over 50% of bettors are currently leaning toward sub-350,000 deliveries for the first quarter of 2026. That would be a significant drop from where they were a year ago.
Between the loss of some tax credits and the fact that the Model Y is starting to look a little "mature" in a market full of new Chinese rivals, the April report is going to be a massive pivot point for the stock.
Actionable Steps for Investors and Enthusiasts
If you’re trying to stay ahead of the curve, don't just wait for the news to hit your brokerage app.
- Bookmark the Tesla Investor Relations "Press Releases" page. This is the ground zero. Any news you see on CNBC or Twitter came from here first.
- Watch the energy storage numbers. People forget that Tesla now includes "GWh of energy storage deployed" in these delivery reports. In Q4 2025, they hit a record 14.2 GWh. Sometimes the car numbers are boring, but the battery business is exploding.
- Ignore the "leak" rumors. Every quarter, some random account claims they have the "leaked" delivery numbers two days early. They are almost always wrong. Tesla keeps this data very tight until the actual release.
- Prepare for volatility. Whether the numbers are a "beat" or a "miss," the stock usually swings 3-5% in the minutes following the release. If you're trading, have your stops set.
Tesla delivery reports are the closest thing the stock market has to a sporting event. They happen four times a year, they’re over in a heartbeat, and they set the tone for the entire EV industry. Mark your calendar for the first week of April, July, October, and January. That is when the real story is told.