You’ve seen the photos. Everyone has. That iconic shot of downtown Flagstaff buried in white, looking more like a Swiss village than a desert outpost. But here’s the thing: timing a trip to see the powder is kinda like playing the lottery with a very cold deck of cards. Honestly, if you show up in early January expecting a blizzard every day, you might just end up staring at a very sunny, very dry sidewalk.
Right now, if you're looking at the sky today, Friday, January 16, 2026, it’s basically a beach day by mountain standards. We’re talking 48°F and nothing but sun. Not a snowflake in sight. The air is dry, the wind is kicking a bit from the northeast at 11 mph, and it feels like spring. But don't let that fool you. Flagstaff weather has a way of flipping the script overnight.
When is it going to snow in Flagstaff? The short-term reality
So, you want to know when is it going to snow in Flagstaff this week? Well, keep your boots in the closet for a few more days. The current forecast shows a lot of "sunny" and "mostly sunny" through the middle of next week. Saturday is looking clear with a high of 42°F, and Sunday actually warms up to 53°F. It’s not exactly the winter wonderland vibes you’re probably after.
But look at the tail end of the week. Thursday, January 22, is when things start to get interesting. We’ve got a 20% chance of light snow moving in overnight. That carries into Friday, January 23, where we might see some actual flakes falling during the day. It’s not a massive storm—think more along the lines of a "dusting" than a "dig-your-car-out" event—but it’s the first real signal of moisture we've seen in a while.
Historically, January is usually our big month, averaging about 20 inches of snow. But 2026 is being a bit stubborn. We’ve only seen about 0.88 inches of liquid equivalent so far this month, which is a bit behind the curve.
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The "Arizona Snowbowl" factor versus downtown
One mistake people make is thinking that if it isn't snowing downtown at the Gopher Hole or Heritage Square, the skiing is busted. Nope. The San Francisco Peaks are their own ecosystem. While downtown Flagstaff sits at about 7,000 feet, Arizona Snowbowl's mid-mountain is way up at 10,349 feet.
That elevation difference is huge. A "mostly cloudy" day in town often means a "bluebird powder" day up top. Even when the clouds aren't delivering, the resort is running state-of-the-art snowmaking. They usually keep a season going from mid-November all the way into April. If you’re desperate for white stuff and the forecast is dry, just look up. If the peaks are white, the party is still on.
Why the "when" is so hard to predict
Flagstaff doesn't get that consistent, daily dusting like the Pacific Northwest or parts of Colorado. Instead, we get "dumps." We’ll go two weeks with nothing but 50-degree days and blinding sun, and then a Pacific storm tracks just right and drops 30 inches in 48 hours.
Back in December 1967, the city got hit with 84.6 inches in a single week. That’s nearly seven feet of snow. The city literally stopped. While we aren't seeing anything like that on the immediate horizon for late January 2026, the pattern of "bone dry" followed by "buried" is the standard here.
What to watch for in the coming weeks:
- The 22nd/23rd Window: This is your first real shot. It’s a low-probability event (20%), but it’s the shift in the weather pattern we’ve been waiting for.
- The Temperature Drop: Notice how the lows are hovering around 27°F to 30°F. If a moisture-heavy system hits those temps, it stays snow rather than turning into that slushy rain-mix that ruins a trip.
- The Wind Shift: When the wind starts coming in from the southwest (like it's predicted to on Thursday the 22nd), that’s usually our "snow wind." It brings in moisture from the Pacific.
Survival tips for the "No Snow" days
If you’re here now and bummed about the 46°F sunshine, don't just sit in your hotel. Go to the Lowell Observatory. Since the skies are clear, the telescope viewing is actually better than when it's snowing. Or, take the drive down to Sedona. It's only 45 minutes away, and 50-degree weather in Flagstaff usually means a perfect 65 degrees in the red rocks.
Basically, Flagstaff in January is a gamble. You might get the "Big One," or you might get a really nice day for a light jacket and a patio beer. If you're betting on the snow, aim for that January 22nd through 24th window. It might not be a blizzard, but it's the best chance we've got for the next ten days.
Check the ADOT (Arizona Department of Transportation) cameras before you head up. If you see "traction tires required" or "chains required" on I-17, that’s your sign that the forecast finally delivered. Until then, enjoy the sun and keep an eye on those overnight lows.
To make the most of your trip, I'd recommend downloading the AZ511 app for real-time road conditions, as I-17 can get messy the second those flakes start hitting the asphalt. If you're heading to the Snowbowl, book your lift tickets at least 48 hours in advance—they use dynamic pricing, and it gets pricey if you wait until you see the snow falling.